INO Evening Market Comments
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Started by tallpine - Jan. 10, 2019, 4:33 p.m.

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:



Friday, January 11, 2019  



8:30 AM ET. December Real Earnings



8:30 AM ET. December CPI



                       CPI, M/M% (expected -0.1%; previous +0.0%)



                       Core CPI, M/M% (expected +0.2%; previous +0.2%)



                       Energy Idx, M/M% (previous -2.2%)



                       Food Idx, M/M% (previous  -0.2%)



                       Real Avg Wkly Pay-Infla Adj, M/M% (previous -0.1%)



                       CPI, Y/Y% (expected +1.9%; previous +2.2%)



                       Core Annual, Y/Y% (expected +2.2%; previous +2.2%)



12:00 PM ET. World Agricultural Supply & Demand Estimates (WASDE) * This

                    data will not be released if the partial U.S. Govt shutdown remains in effect



                       Corn, End Stocks (Bushels) (previous 1781M)



                       Soybeans, End Stocks (Bushels) (previous 955M)



                       Wheat, End Stocks (Bushels) (previous 974M)



                       Cotton, End Stocks (Bales) (previous 4.40M)



2:00 PM ET. December Monthly Treasury Statement of Receipts & Outlays of the U.S. Govt



The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes ""



The March NASDAQ 100 closed higher on Thursday as it extended the rally off December's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to high prices are possible near-term. If March extend the rally off December's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 6688.47 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Friday's low crossing at 6136.50 would signal that a short-term top has likely been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 6688.47. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 6897.00. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 6136.50. Second support is December's low crossing at 5820.50. 



The March S&P 500 closed higher on Thursday as it extends the rally off December's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 2640.76 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Friday's low crossing at 2439.00 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2640.76. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 2656.60. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 2439.00. Second support is December's low crossing at 2317.70.



The Dow closed higher for the fifth-day in a row on Thursday as it extended the rally off December's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading.Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If the Dow extends the rally off December's low, the 50% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 24,342.49 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 24,342.49. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 24,435.69. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 22,638.41. Second support is December's low crossing at 22,638.41.



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March T-bonds closed down 7-points at 145-11.



March T-bonds closed lower on Thursday as it extended the decline off last-Friday's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 145-04 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March resumes the rally off November's low, the 38% retracement level of the 2016-2018-decline crossing at 152-01 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 148-27. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2016-2018-decline crossing at 152-01. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 145-06. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 144-13.         



March T-notes closed down 30-points at 121-225.



March T-notes closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 121.128 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March renews the rally off November's low, the 38% retracement level of the 2016-2018-decline on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 123.270 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 123.055. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2016-2018-decline on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 123.270. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 121.128. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 120.280.        



ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""



February crude oil closed slightly higher on Thursday as it extends the rally off December's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If February extends the rally off December's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 53.07 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 48.04 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 53.07. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 55.28. First support is December's low crossing at 45.13. Second support is the January-2016 low crossing at 41.48. 



February heating oil closed higher on Thursday as it extends the rally off December's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night trading session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If February extends the rally off December's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 191.25 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 176.41 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If February renews the decline off October's high, the 87% retracement level of the 2017-2018-rally crossing at 162.34 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 191.25. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 197.95 is the next upside target. First support is the 87% retracement level of the 2017-2018-rally crossing at 162.34. Second support is the June-19th-2017 low crossing at 150.08.



February unleaded gas closed slightly lower on Thursday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If February extends the rally off December's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 146.61 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 134.78 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 146.61. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 151.77. First support is December's low crossing at 122.93. Second support is the January-10th 2016 low crossing at 110.45.



February Henry natural gas closed lower on Thursday as it extended the trading range of the past seven-days. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If February extends this month's decline, the February-2016 low crossing at 2.770 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Monday's gap crossing at 3.278 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Monday's gap crossing at 3.278. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.367. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 2.878. Second support is the February-2016 low crossing at 2.770.    



CURRENCIES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=currencies ""



The March Dollar closed higher on Thursday as it consolidated some of the decline off December's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off December's high, the 62% retracement level of the September-December-rally crossing at 94.53 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 96.04 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 96.65. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 97.20. First support is the 62% retracement level of the September-December-rally crossing at 94.54. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the September-December-rally crossing at 93.97.    



The March Euro closed lower on Thursday as it consolidated some of this week's gains. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, November's high crossing at 116.45 is the next upside target. If March renews the decline off September's high, the 87% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 111.94 is the next downside target. First resistance is today's high crossing at 116.33. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 116.45. First support is November's low crossing at 113.53. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 111.94.    



The March British Pound closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2839 would open the door for a possible test of November's high crossing at 1.3257. If March resumes the decline off September's high, the October-2016 low crossing at 1.2384 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1.2862. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 1.3257. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 1.2512. Second support is the October-2016 low crossing at 1.2384. 



The March Swiss Franc posted a key reversal down on Thursday signaling a possible end to the rally off November's low.The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top has been posted. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0196 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off November's low, the 62% retracement level of the September-November-decline crossing at 1.0405 is the next upside target.  First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the September-November-decline crossing at 1.0330. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the September-November-decline crossing at 1.0405. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0196. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0151.



The March Canadian Dollar posted an inside day with a lower close on Thursday as it consolidated some of the rally off December's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this month's rally, December's high crossing at 76.15 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 74.47 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 75.99. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 76.15. First support is December's low crossing at 73.30. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2016-2017-rally crossing at 72.93. 



The March Japanese Yen closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off last-Thursday's high, the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0910 is the next downside target. If March renews the rally off December's low, the 75% retracement level of the March-November-decline crossing at 0.0957 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the March-November-decline crossing at 0.0944. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the March-November-decline crossing at 0.0957. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 0.0923. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0910.  



PRECIOUS METALS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=metals ""



February gold closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off November's low, the 62% retracement level of the April-August-Decline crossing at 1312.70 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1271.40 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 1300.40. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the April-August-Decline crossing at 1312.70. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1271.40. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1247.40.



March silver closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but are turning neutral to bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 15.206 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off December's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2017-2018-decline crossing at 16.279 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 15.955. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2017-2018-decline crossing at 16.279. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 15.625. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 15.206.         



March copper closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 272.33 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews the decline off December's high, the 62% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 251.75 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 267.48. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 272.33. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 254.30. Second support isthe 62% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 251.75.



GRAINS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "



March Corn closed down 5-cents at 3.77. 



March corn closed lower on Thursday. Brazil’s CONAB was updated this morning, which showed the country’s total corn crop estimate at 91.19 MMT, up slightly from their December number on a larger first crop. Agroconsult is well above Brazil’s government agency (CONAB) at 95.6 MMT. Argentina’s corn crop estimate from the Rosario Grain Exchange was up from their prior range of 42-43 MMT to 44 MMT. A South Korean feed importer purchased 69,000 MT of optional origin corn on Thursday.Since June-2018, the market has been forming a broad symmetrical triangle (consolidation pattern). Since September, March has been trading into a narrowing trading range, which is forming the apex of the aforementioned triangle. An upside breakout of the aforementioned triangle will need to be underpinned by both a friendly domestic and world supply-demand report. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night sessions begins trading. If March takes out December's low crossing at 3.72 1/2, November's low crossing at 3.67 1/4 is the next likely downside target. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March renews the rally off December's low, December's high crossing at 3.87 3/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is December's high crossing at 3.87 3/4. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 3.90. First support is December's low crossing at 3.72 1/2. Second support is November's low crossing at 3.67 1/4.



March wheat closed down 6 1/4-cents at 5.13 3/4. 



March wheat closed lower on Thursday due to spillover selling from corn and soybeans. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.18 3/4 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. If March resumes the decline off December's high, psychological support crossing at 5.00 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.18 3/4. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 5.38 1/2. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at 5.01 1/4. Second support is psychological support crossing at 5.00.    



March Kansas City Wheat closed down 6 3/4-cents at 4.98 3/4. 



March Kansas City wheat closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.06 1/4 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March resumes the decline off December's high, November's low crossing at 4.82 1/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is December's high crossing at 5.24 1/2. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 5.33 3/4. First support is last-Monday's low crossing at 4.87 1/4. Second support is November's low crossing at 4.82 1/4.  



March Minneapolis wheat closed down 6 1/2-cents at 5.64. 



March Minneapolis wheat closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.73 1/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March resumes the decline off December's high, weekly support on the continuation chart crossing at 5.23 3/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.73 1/4. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 5.89 1/2. First support is December's low crossing at 5.44 1/2. Second support is weekly support crossing at 5.23 3/4.   



SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "



March soybeans closed down 16 3/4-cents at 9.07 1/4.



March soybeans closed lower on Thursday after CONAB put out their updated 18/19 Brazil soybean estimates this morning at 118.8 MMT vs. 120.07 MMT last month. That was not as low as other firms had estimated. They also estimated 18/19 exports at 75 MMT, unchanged from last month but down 8.865 MMT from 17/18. Agroconsult also released updated numbers, down 5.2 MMT from last month at 117.6 MMT. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 9.03 3/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off December's low, December's high crossing at 9.41. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the May-September-decline crossing at 9.46 1/2. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the May-September-decline crossing at 9.72 1/4. First support is December's low crossing at 8.80 1/4. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 8.71 1/4.  



March soybean meal closed down $6.80 at 316.60. 



March soybean meal closed lower on Thursday as it consolidated some of the rally off December's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 313.30 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off December's low, October's high crossing at 327.40 is the next upside target. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 324.60. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 327.40. First support is December's low crossing at 307.10. Second support is November's low crossing at 305.30.  



March soybean oil closed down 44 pts. at 28.16. 



March soybean oil closed lower on Thursday and below the 10-day moving average crossing at 28.22 thereby tempering the near-term friendly outlook. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March resumes the rally off December's low, December's high crossing at 29.50 is the next upside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 29.09. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 29.50. First support is December's low crossing at 27.58. Second support is November's low crossing at 27.42.   

 

LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock 



February hogs closed up $0.30 at $64.08. 



February hogs closed higher on Thursday as it extends the rally off December's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 64.03 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If February renews the decline off November's high, November's low crossing at 59.25 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 64.03. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 66.80. First support is December's low crossing at 60.20. Second support is November's low crossing at 59.25.    



February cattle closed up $0.08 at 124.88. 



February cattle closed slightly higher on Thursday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If February extends the rally off November's low, weekly resistance crossing at 127.95 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 121.61 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 125.48. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 127.95. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 121.61. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 120.47.   

 

March Feeder cattle closed up $0.18 at $145.08. 



March Feeder cattle closed higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March renews the rally off December's low, November's high crossing at 149.23. If March resumes this month's decline, December's low crossing at 140.35 is the next downside target. First resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at 147.58. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 149.23. First support is Monday's low crossing at 142.00. Second support is December's low crossing at 140.35.  



FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food 



March coffee closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. If March resumes the decline off October's high, weekly support crossing at 9.51 is the next downside target. If March extends Tuesday's rally, the 38% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 11.02 is the next upside target.            



March cocoa closed slightly higher on Thursday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 22.01 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March renews the rally off December's low, July's high crossing at 25.96 is the next upside target.      



March sugar closed lower on Thursday as it consolidated some of this week's rally. The low-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this week's rally, the reaction high crossing at 12.67 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 12.32 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.



March cotton closed lower on Thursday as it extended the trading range of the past two-weeks. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 74.37 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March resumes the decline off December's high, the 75% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 74.04 is the next downside target.      

Comments
By metmike - Jan. 10, 2019, 8:24 p.m.
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Thanks once again tallpine!