Weather Thursday
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Started by metmike - Jan. 10, 2019, 10:06 a.m.

It's January 10th.......   Just another day?  Do something special for somebody today. Seriously, don't just think about it for a moment......do it now.

 Scroll down and  enjoy the latest comprehensive weather to the max.  Cooling down but not extremely cold. Adding some snow to the forecast too.

Here are the latest hazards across the country:


Purple/Pink/blue on land is cold/Winter weather. Brown is wind,  Green is flooding. Gray is fog.  Reddish is a red flag advisory.  

Go to the link below, then hit the location/county on the map for details.

                          https://www.spc.noaa.gov/  Go to "hazards"                                                                                     

                   


Legend

                                        

                          

Winter Weather

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/winter_wx.shtml


Image result for image of snowflakes


Snowfall the next 3 days:


   

gfs_namer_072_snodpth_chng.gif

Low Temperatures Tomorrow Morning

Comments
By metmike - Jan. 10, 2019, 10:13 a.m.
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High Temperatures today and tomorrow.

Seasonal cold.  Warming West now. 

   

               

By metmike - Jan. 10, 2019, 10:14 a.m.
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Highs for days 3-7:

Colder than the recent pattern  but not too bad by January standards.


http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY3_MAX_filled.gif

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY4_MAX_filled.gifhttp://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY5_MAX_filled.gifhttp://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY6_MAX_filled.gifhttps://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY7_MAX_filled.gif

By metmike - Jan. 10, 2019, 10:15 a.m.
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How do these days 3-7 temperatures compare to average at this time of year?

 
Above to much above average reds at times shifted a bit westward to the NorthCentral US back to the Rockies.....cold blues limited as we approach the climatological coldest time of year.


https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/medr_mean.shtml


http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/hpcmaxwbg.gif



https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/95Bwbg.gif

By metmike - Jan. 10, 2019, 10:20 a.m.
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Weather maps for days 3-7 below:


Weekend storm in the Southeast looks just cold enough for some frozen precip in the northeast sector.
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif

By metmike - Jan. 10, 2019, 10:23 a.m.
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The latest liquid equivalent precip forecasts for this week are below.


Some of this will be snow in the Midwest. Some ice too, including farther southeast.


Day 1 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_94qwbg.gif?1526306199054

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_94qwbg.gif?1531339983148

Day 2 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_98qwbg.gif?1528293750112


http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_98qwbg.gif?1531340045174


Day 3 below

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_99qwbg.gif?1528293842764

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_99qwbg.gif?1531340092706



Days 4-5 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1531339379

 Days 6-7 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/97ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/97ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1531339379

7 Day Total precipitation below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.govcdx /qpf/p168i.gif?1530796126






http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif?1530796126

By metmike - Jan. 10, 2019, 10:23 a.m.
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Current Dew Points


Very dry air in place across the entire country.
  
Current Dew Points

                                    


Latest radar loop


http://www.nws.noaa.gov/radar_tab.php

Doppler Radar National Mosaic Loop

                          

Full resolution version loop (3400x1700 pixels - 2.2mb)
 

      

Central Great Lakes sector loop
Go to: Most Recent Image

Precipitation the past 24 hours


                                    


    

You can go to this link to see precipitation totals from recent time periods:


https://water.weather.gov/precip/


                              Go to precipitation, then scroll down to pick a time frame. Hit states to get the borders to see locations better. Under products, you can hit "observed" or "Percent of normal"      

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     Soil moisture anomaly:


Still  wet on this particular metric in an enormous area.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Soilmst_Monitoring/Figures/daily/curr.w.anom.daily.gif


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Precipitation compared to average for the last 7, 14, 30 and 60 days. 


Usually not updated for previous day until late the next day.

https://www.atmos.illinois.edu/~snodgrss/Ag_Wx.html

http://weather.agribleservices.com/ahps/7_day_percent.png


http://weather.agribleservices.com/ahps/14_day_percent.png

http://weather.agribleservices.com/ahps/30_day_percent.pnghttp://weather.agribleservices.com/ahps/60_day_percent.png

By metmike - Jan. 10, 2019, 10:28 a.m.
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The top map is the Canadian ensemble average, the maps below are the individual members that make up the average


End of week 2....................0Z ensembles from THURSDAY:
Analysis starting from last week:
Friday: Pretty cold Midwest/East but not as cold as the previous run. Ridge West/Trough East couplet. Several members allow the polar vortex to shift far enough south for frigid air to settle in.

Very uncertain..........the European ensembles are not this cold and the Canadian ensembles have been too cold for the last month.

Saturday/Today: Similar to yesterday but not quite as cold or as much cross polar flow.

Sunday: MUCH milder than previous solutions. Mild members now outnumber cold ones. Still great uncertainty as week 2 progresses. Enough cross polar flow and bitter cold lurking just north of the US border so that any cold fronts with a decent southward push could be quite potent.  

Monday: Looks a bit colder today. Same potentially Frigid pattern.

Tuesday: Coldest yet.  Cross polar flow. Polar vortex displaced south.

Wednesday: Same pattern but not as cold as the last 2 days.

Thursday: Still the same very cold pattern, a tad colder than yesterday.
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Each member is like the parent, Canadian model operational model.......with a slight tweek/variation in parameters. Since we know the equations to represent the physics of the atmosphere in the models are not perfect, its useful to vary some of the equations that are uncertain(can make a difference) to see if it effects the outcome and how.

The average of all these variations(ensembles) often yields a better tool for forecasting. It's always more consistent. The individual operational model, like each individual ensemble member can vary greatly from run to run.........and represent an extreme end of the spectrum at times. The ensemble average of all the members, because it averages the extremes.............from opposite ends of the spectrum.........changes much less from run to run.

360h GZ 500 forecast valid on Jan 25, 2019 00 UTC

GZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecast


By metmike - Jan. 10, 2019, 10:36 a.m.
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0Z GFS Ensembles at 2 weeks:

Friday: Huge disparity between cold and mild, wet/snow and dry.

Best agreement is for above precip in the East. 

Saturday: Cold focused on the Northeast. Still the Ridge west, trough Northeast couplet. 

Sunday: Coldest of the models(European ensemble was pretty mild). Ridge West, trough East extends pretty far north, to the higher latitudes. This will bring frigid air south across Canada. The most likely point of deep penetration into the US, will be in the Northeast. 

Monday: 0z run was the coldest yet. Bone chilling cold! Polar vortex takes an excursion south, aimed towards Southeast Canada.

Tuesday: Similar to yesterday. Ridge west, trough east couplet. Cold focused on the Northeast.

Wednesday: Same pattern but not quite as cold.

Thursday: Very cold with cold aimed a bit farther west on some solutions, more towards the Midwest vs Northeast vs yesterday.

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSHGT_0z/f360.gif

By metmike - Jan. 10, 2019, 10:39 a.m.
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Latest, updated graph/forecast for AO and NAO here, including an explanation of how to interpret them. 

Previous analysis, with the latest day at the bottom:

Friday: AO is negative with some members very negative.....huge disparity/uncertainty.  This favors frigid air moving from high latitudes to mid latitudes. NAO and PNA are close to zero.

Saturday: AO strongly negative as week 2 goes on, favors cold. NAO leaning slightly negative, PNA slightly positive favor cold in the Northeast(Midwest)

Sunday: AO still negative and changeable/uncertain but without the extreme negative solutions of previous days......still favors cold delivery south from high latitudes. NAO  around zero and PNA slightly positive. Tipping odds for cold in the Northeast. 

Monday: AO negative, favorable for cold to move from high latitudes to mid latitudes. NAO near 0(but actual weather maps seem like they would generate a -NAO) PNA a bit positive.......favorable for cold to push into USA in the Midwest/East.

Tuesday: AO really dives lower at the end of week 2, almost to record low levels. This favors extreme cold traveling from north/high latitudes to south/mid latitudes. NAO is close to zero. PNA is slightly positive. 

Wednesday: AO still plunges during week 2, favorable for cold to move from north to south in Canada into the US. NAO close to zero, NAO slightly positive.

Thursday: AO still negative(favorable for extreme cold to move south) but not a low as recent solutions, with a couple of exceptions. NAO goes from a bit positive to slightly negative at the end of the period. PNA slightly positive. 

The link below, now has the PNA index added at the bottom:


https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/15793/

By metmike - Jan. 10, 2019, 10:41 a.m.
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National Weather Service 6-10 day, 8-14 day outlooks.


The 8-14 day outlooks should continue to get much colder now!!




Temperature Probability

6 to 10 Day Outlook - Temperature Probability
 Precipitation Probability

  6 to 10 Day Outlook - Precipitation Probability

  


the 8-14 day outlooks
ArchivesAnalogsLines-Only FormatGIS Data

Temperature Probability

8 to 14 Day Outlook - Temperature Probability
8 to 14 Day Outlook - Precipitation Probability
By metmike - Jan. 10, 2019, 10:42 a.m.
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Previous  posts:


  Weather Sunday

             By metmike - Jan. 6, 2019, 1:42 p.m.            

            Thanks Larry,

Looks like the models have reversed back  to MUCH  warmer  during the first half of the week 2 period vs Friday.  The GFS/ensembles still like the idea of cold in the Northeast after that(very unreliable period) but the European model ensembles keep it mild.

Canadian ensembles are not nearly as cold either.

Natural gas lower tonight.

               ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++                     


                        Re: Weather Sunday            

            

                By WxFollower - Jan. 6, 2019, 5:10 p.m.            

            

Agree on NG lower opening.

      ++++++++++++++++++++++++++


                Re: Weather Sunday            

          

                             By WxFollower - Jan. 6, 2019, 10:22 p.m.            

            Mike and I were correct. NG opened down and sharply at that. No money on it for me though as I’ve been in my usual flat position.

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                Re: Re: Weather Monday            

            

                              

                By metmike - Jan. 8, 2019, 1:59 a.m.            

            

OK, I should have put the maps/post below in Weather, not natural gas:

The 0z GFS and Canadian model products came out a bit colder which is supporting NG a bit here.

The European model 762 hour update had a couple of very frigid blasts late this month into early February which help set up the initial support in early evening trading.


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                By metmike - Jan. 8, 2019, 1:55 a.m.            

            

Heres the Euro model starting on January 24th, every 24 hours......ending February 8th. These are 850 mb temp maps which is around 1 mile above the surface/ground and is in Celcius/Centigrade. 


Some bitter cold air makes it south of the border for numerous days. -20 Deg C isotherm manages to get to the N.TN border on one occassion, with a -30 Deg C isotherm showing up in northern border states on several days.



By metmike - Jan. 10, 2019, 10:42 a.m.
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The European model 30 day outlook will be updated late this afternoon.