KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Thursday, January 3, 2019
7:00 AM ET. MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey
Composite Idx (previous 325.9)
Composite Idx, W/W% (previous -5.8%)
Purchase Idx-SA (previous 238.6)
Purchase Idx-SA, W/W% (previous -6.8%)
Refinance Idx (previous 832.2)
Refinance Idx, W/W% (previous -2.3%)
7:30 AM ET. December Challenger Job-Cut Report
Job Cuts, M/M% (previous -29.8%)
8:15 AM ET. December ADP National Employment Report
Private Sector Jobs, Net Chg (expected +178000; previous +179000)
8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims
Jobless Claims (expected 220K; previous 216K)
Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous -1K)
Continuing Claims (previous 1701000)
Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous -4K)
9:45 AM ET. December ISM-NY Report on Business
Business Index (previous 67.8)
9:45 AM ET. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
10:00 AM ET. November Metropolitan Area Employment & Unemployment
10:00 AM ET. November Construction Spending - Construction Put in Place * This data
will not be released if the partial U.S. government shutdown remains in effect
New Construction (expected +0.2%; previous -0.1%)
Residential Construction
10:00 AM ET. December ISM Manufacturing Report on Business
Manufacturing PMI (expected 57.9; previous 59.3)
Prices Idx (previous 60.7)
Employment Idx (previous 58.4)
Inventories (previous 52.9)
New Orders Idx (previous 62.1)
Production Idx (previous 60.6)
4:00 PM ET. December Domestic Auto Industry Sales
Auto Sales Annualized (expected 17.2M; previous 17.49M)
4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings
4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings
4:30 PM ET. API Weekly Statistical Bulletin
Crude Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +6.9M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +3.7M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -0.6M)
4:30 PM ET. Money Stock Measures
Friday, January 4, 2019
8:30 PM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales
Corn (Metric Tons)
Soybeans (Metric Tons)
Wheat (Metric Tons)
8:30 AM ET. December U.S. Employment Report
Non-Farm Payrolls (expected +176K; previous +155K)
Unemployment Rate (expected 3.6%; previous 3.7%)
Avg Hourly Earnings (USD) (previous 27.35)
Avg Hourly Earnings-Net Chg (USD) (previous +0.06)
Avg Hourly Earnings, M/M% (expected +0.3%; previous +0.22%)
Avg Hourly Earnings, Y/Y% (previous +3.1%)
Overall Workweek (previous 34.4)
Overall Workweek Net Chg (previous -0.1)
Government Payrolls (previous -6K)
Private Payroll (previous +161K)
Participation Rate (previous 62.9%)
Non-Farm Payrolls Bench Net Chg
9:45 AM ET. December US Services PMI
PMI, Services (previous 54.7)
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 2725B)
Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous -48B)
11:00 AM ET. December Global Services PMI
PMI, Services (previous 53.7)
11:00 AM ET. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Crude Oil Stocks (Bbl) (previous 441.411M)
Crude Oil Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -0.046M)
Gasoline Stocks (Bbl) (previous 233.106M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +3.003M)
Distillate Stocks (Bbl) (previous 119.902M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +0.002M)
Refinery Usage (previous 95.1%)
Total Prod Supplied (Bbl/day) (previous 20.741M)
Total Prod Supplied, Net Chg (Bbl/day) (previous -1.588M)
Monday, January 7, 2019
10:00 AM ET. November Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories & Orders (M3)
Total Orders, M/M% (previous -2.1%)
Orders, Ex-Defense, M/M% (previous -0.4%)
Orders, Ex-Transport, M/M% (previous +0.3%)
Durable Goods, M/M% (previous -4.4%)
Durable Goods, M/M% (previous -4.3%)
10:00 AM ET. December Employment Trends Index
ETI (previous 110.41)
ETI, Y/Y% (previous +4.4%)
10:00 AM ET. December ISM Non-Manufacturing Report on Business
Non-Mfg Composite Idx (previous 60.7)
Non-Mfg Business Idx (previous 65.2)
Prices Idx (previous 64.3)
Employment Idx (previous 58.4)
New Orders Idx (previous 62.5)
The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=indexes"
The STOCK INDEXES:The March NASDAQ 100 was lower in overnight trading and are poised to post deep losses in tech and internet-related shares at the open after Apple Inc. late Wednesday announced a rare cut to its sales guidance, pointing to an economic slowdown in China. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that the rebound off the late-December low might have come to an end. If March renews the decline off December's high, weekly support crossing at 5752.25 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 6461.94 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 6461.94. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 6728.15. First support is December's low crossing at 5820.50. Second support is weekly support crossing at 5752.25.
The March S&P 500 was lower overnight as it extends Wednesday's losses over signs of economic weakness in China.Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that the rally off December's low appears to be staling out. If March renews the decline off December's high, the 38% retracement level of the 2008-2018 rally on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 2076.04 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 2549.59 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted.First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2549.59. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2653.57. First support is December's low crossing at 2317.70. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the 2008-2018 rally on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 2076.04.
INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"
INTEREST RATES: March T-bonds was lower overnight as it consolidated some of the rally off November's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off November's low, weekly resistance crossing at 152-18 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 144-10 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 147-29. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 152-18. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 145-20. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 144-10.
March T-notes was lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off November's low, weekly resistance crossing at 123.270 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 121.001 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 122.230. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 123.270. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 121.179. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 121.001.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
February crude oil was steady to slightly higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 48.50 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If February extends the decline off October's high, the January-2016 low crossing at 41.48 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 48.50. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 53.50. First support is last-Monday's low crossing at 42.36. Second support is the January-2016 low crossing at 41.48.
February heating oil was higher overnight as it extends the trading range of the past seven-days. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 177.62 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. If February extends the decline off October's high, the 87% retracement level of the 2017-2018-rally crossing at 162.34 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 177.62. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 194.43. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at 163.80. Second support is the 87% retracement level of 2017-2018-rally crossing at 162.34.
February unleaded gas was higher overnight as it extends the trading range of the past seven-days. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 137.15 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If February extends the decline off October's high, the 2016 low crossing at 110.45 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 137.15. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 151.77. First support is the 87% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 124.09. Second support is the 2016 low crossing at 110.45.
February Henry natural gas was steady to slightly higher overnight due to short covering as it consolidates some of its recent losses. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible near-term. If February extends the decline off November's high, the February-2016 low crossing at 2.770 is the next downside target. Closes above Monday's gap crossing at 3.278 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 3.347. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.699. First support is the overnight low crossing at 2.890. Second support is the February-2016 low crossing at 2.770.
CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"
CURRENCIES:The March Dollar was lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 96.36 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March extends the decline off December's high, November's low crossing at 94.91 is the next downside target. If March renews this year's rally, weekly resistance crossing at 97.83 is the next upside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 96.65. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 97.19. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 95.37. Second support is November's low crossing at 94.91.
The March Euro was lower overnight following Wednesday's key reversal down. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March resumes the decline off September's high, November's low crossing at 113.53 then the 87% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 111.94 are the next downside targets. Closes above trading range resistance crossing at 116.45 are needed to confirm an upside breakout of the November-December-trading range. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 116.45. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 117.00. First support is November's low crossing at 113.53. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 111.94.
The March British Pound was lower overnight as it extends the decline off Monday's high. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session beings trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March resumes this fall's decline, the October-2016 low crossing at 1.2384 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2854 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2854. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1.2957. First support is the overnight low crossing at 1.2512. Second support is the October-2016 low crossing at 1.2384.
The March Swiss Franc was steady to slightly higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below last-Wednesday's low crossing at 1.0117 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off November's low, the 50% retracement level of the September-November decline crossing at 1.0330 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 1.0288. Second resistance the 50% retracement level of the September-November decline crossing at 1.0330. First support is the reaction low crossing at 1.0097. Second support is November's low crossing at 1.0018.
The March Canadian Dollar was slightly lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off October's high, the 75% retracement level of the 2016-2017-rally crossing at 72.94 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 74.32 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 73.74. Second resistance is the 20-day crossing at 74.32. First support is Monday's low crossing at 73.30. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2016-2017-rally crossing at 72.94.
The March Japanese Yen gapped up and was sharply higher overnight as it extends the rally off November's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off November's low, the 75% retracement level of the March-November-decline crossing at 0.0957 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 0.0912 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the March-November-decline crossing at 0.0944. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the March-November-decline crossing at 0.0957. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 0.0912. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0902.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"
PRECIOUS METALS: February gold was higher overnight as it extends the rally off November's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If February extends the rally off November's low, the 62% retracement level of the January-August-decline crossing at 1312.70 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1260.70 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 1294.30. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the January-August-decline crossing at 1312.70. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1273.40. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1260.70.
March silver was higher overnight as it extends the rally off November's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off November's low, the 38% retracement level of the 2017-2018-decline crossing at 15.733 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 14.923 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 15.680. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2017-2018-decline crossing at 15.733. First support the 10-day moving average crossing at 15.163. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 14.923.
March copper was lower overnight as it extends the decline off December's high. The mid-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off December's high, the 62% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 251.75 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 273.58 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 280.35. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 285.80. First support is the overnight low crossing at 258.50. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 251.75.
GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains
March corn was higher overnight as it consolidates above the September-November uptrend line. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.80 1/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March extends the decline off December's high, November's low crossing at 3.67 1/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is December's high crossing at 3.87 3/4. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 3.90. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at 3.72 1/2. Second support is November's low crossing at 3.67 1/4.
March wheat closed higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off December's high. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the aforementioned decline, psychological support crossing at 5.00 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.19 3/4 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is December's high crossing at 5.38 1/2. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the August-November-decline crossing at 5.50 1/2. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 5.01 1/4. Second support is psychological support crossing at 5.00.
March Kansas City Wheat closed up 3 3/4-cent at 4.92 1/2.
March Kansas City wheat closed higher on Wednesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off December's high, November's low crossing at 4.82 1/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.08 3/4 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is December's high crossing at 5.24 1/2. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 5.33 3/4. First support is Monday's low crossing at 4.87 1/4. Second support is November's low crossing at 4.82 1/4.
March Minneapolis wheat was higher overnight. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.75 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March extends the decline off December's high, weekly support crossing at 5.23 3/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.68 1/4. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.75. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 5.44 1/2. Second support is weekly support crossing at 5.23 3/4.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
March soybeans was lower on overnight. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 9.10 3/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March resumes the decline off December's high, the reaction low crossing at 8.71 1/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the May-September-decline crossing at 9.46 1/2. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the May-September-decline crossing at 9.72 1/4. First support is the reaction low crossing at 8.71 1/4. Second support is October's low crossing at 8.58.
March soybean meal was lower overnight while extending the September-January trading range. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 316.90 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March resumes the decline off December's high, November's low crossing at 305.30 is the next downside target. First resistance is December's high crossing at 321.70. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 327.40. First support is November's low crossing at 305.30. Second support is September's low crossing at 303.40.
March soybean oil was higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 28.51 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. If March extends the decline off December's high, November's low crossing at 27.42 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 28.51. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 29.50. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at 27.58. Second support is November's low crossing at 27.42.
LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock
February hogs closed up $0.73 at $61.70.
February hogs closed higher on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 64.18 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If February extends the decline off November's high, November's low crossing at 59.25 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 63.64. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 64.18. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 60.25. Second support is November's low crossing at 59.25.
February cattle closed down $0.35 at 123.53.
February cattle closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 122.57 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If February extends the rally off November's low, weekly resistance crossing at 127.95 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 124.95. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 127.95. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 122.57. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 121.45.
March Feeder cattle closed down $0.80 at $145.95.
March Feeder cattle closed lower on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 144.69 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off December's low, November's high crossing at 149.23. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 147.58. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 149.23. First support is the reaction low crossing at 142.72. Second support is December's low crossing at 140.35.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
March coffee closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March resumes the decline off October's high, weekly support crossing at 9.51 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 10.26 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.
March cocoa closed lower on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, July's high crossing at 25.96 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 22.66 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.
March sugar closed lower on Wednesday as it extends the decline off October's high. The low-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off October's high, the 75% retracement level of the September-October-rally crossing at 11.65 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 12.51 would confirm that a low has been posted.
March cotton closed sharply lower on Wednesday as it extends the decline off December's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower possible near-term. If March extends this month's decline, the 75% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 74.04 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 76.69 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted.