KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Friday, December 21, 2018
8:30 AM ET. November Advance Report on Durable Goods
Durable Goods-SA, M/M% (expected +1.5%; previous -4.4%)
Dur Goods, Ex-Defense, M/M% (previous -1.2%)
Dur Goods, Ex-Transport, M/M% (previous +0.1%)
Orders: Cap Gds, Non-Def, Ex-Air, M/M% (previous +0.0%)
Shipmnts: Cap Gds, Non-Def, Ex-Air, M/M% (previous +0.3%)
8:30 AM ET. 3rd Quarter 3rd estimate GDP
Annual Rate, Q/Q% (expected +3.5%; previous +3.5%)
Chain-Weighted Price Idx, Q/Q% (expected +1.7%; previous +1.7%)
Corporate Profits, Q/Q% (previous +0.7%)
PCE Price Idx, Q/Q% (previous +1.5%)
Purchase Price Idx, Q/Q% (previous +1.7%)
Real Final Sales, Q/Q% (previous +1.2%)
Core PCE Price Idx, Ex-Food/Energy, Q/Q% (previous +1.5%)
Personal Consumption, Q/Q% (previous +3.6%)
8:30 AM ET. 3rd Quarter Revised Corporate Profits
10:00 AM ET. December University of Michigan Survey of Consumers – final
End-Mo Sentiment Idx (expected 97.0; previous 97.5)
End-Mo Expectations Idx (previous 88.1)
12-Month Inflation Forecast (previous 2.8%)
5-Year Inflation Forecast (previous 2.6%)
End-Mo Current Idx (previous 112.3)
10:00 AM ET. November Regional & State Employment & Unemployment
10:00 AM ET. November Personal Income & Outlays
Personal Income, M/M% (expected +0.3%; previous +0.5%)
Consumer Spending, M/M% (expected +0.3%; previous +0.6%)
PCE Price Idx, M/M% (previous +0.2%)
PCE Price Idx, Y/Y% (previous +2.0%)
PCE Core Price Idx, M/M% (expected +0.2%; previous +0.1%)
PCE Core Price Idx, Y/Y% (expected +1.9%; previous +1.8%)
11:00 AM ET. Dec. Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Survey of Tenth District Manufacturing
Mfg Activity Idx (previous 24)
6-Mo Exp Prod Idx (previous 27)
Mfg Composite Idx (previous 15)
6-Mo Exp Composite Idx (previous 16)
N/A Deadline for new funding deal to avert partial U.S. Govt shutdown
The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes ""
The March NASDAQ 100 closed sharply lower for the second day in a row on Thursday as it extends the decline off October's high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off December's high, last-February's low on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 6164.00 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 6714.32 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 6714.32. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 6886.84. First support is today's low crossing at 6180.00. Second support is last-February's low on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 6161.00.
The March S&P 500 closed lower for the sixth day in a row on Thursday as it extends the decline off September's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off December's high, the 87% retracement level of the 2017-2018-rally crossing at 2407.97 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 2652.94 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 2589.51. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2652.94. First support is today's low crossing at 2442.00. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2017-2018-rally crossing at 2407.97.
The Dow closed sharply lower on Thursday as it extends the decline off October's high.The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading.Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If the Dow extends the decline off December's high, weekly support crossing at 22,219.11 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 24,498.53 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 23,987.18. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 24,498.53. First support is today's low crossing at 22,644.31. Second support is weekly support crossing at 22,219.11.
INTEREST RATES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=interest ""
March T-bonds closed down 12-points at 144-22.
March T-bonds closed lower on Thursday as it consolidates some of the rally off November's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off November's low, weekly resistance crossing at 146-23 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 141-28 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 146-00. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 146-22. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 143-19. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 141-28.
March T-notes closed down 45-points at 121-010.
March T-notes posted an inside day with a lower close on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off November's low, weekly resistance crossing at 121.200 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 120.034 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Friday's high crossing at 121.035. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 121.200. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 120.208. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 120.034.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
February crude oil closed lower on Thursday as it extends the decline off October's high.The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If February extends the decline off October's high, the January-2016 low crossing at 41.48 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 50.96 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 54.55. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 58.16.First support is today's low crossing at 45.67. Second support is the January-2016 low crossing at 41.48.
February heating oil closed lower on Thursday as it extends the decline off October's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night trading session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If February extends the decline off October's high, the 87% retracement level of the 2017-2018-rally crossing at 162.34 is the next downside target. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 194.43 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 194.43. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 205.55. First support is the 75% retracement level of the 2017-2018-rally crossing at 173.08. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2017-2018-rally crossing at 162.34.
February unleaded gas closed lower on Thursday as it extends the decline off October's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If February extends the decline off October's high, the June-2017 low crossing at 129.88 is the next downside target. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 151.77 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 151.77. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 159.94. First support is today's low crossing at 130.51. Second support is the June-2017 low crossing at 129.88.
February Henry natural gas closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.109 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If February extends this month's decline, the 75% retracement level of the September-November-rally crossing at 3.388 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 3.917. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.109. First support is the 75% retracement level of the September-November-rally crossing at 3.388. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the September-November-rally crossing at 3.154.
CURRENCIES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=currencies ""
The March Dollar closed sharply lower on Thursday and below the 50-day moving average crossing at 95.94 confirming that a short-term top has been posted. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends today's decline, the reaction low crossing at 95.38 is the next downside target. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 97.20. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 97.83. First support is the reaction low crossing at 95.38. Second support is November's low crossing at 94.91.
The March Euro closed sharply higher on Thursday and abovethe 50-day moving average crossing at 115.17 confirming that a short-term low has been posted. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends today's rally, November's high crossing at 116.45 is the next upside target. If March renews the decline off September's high, the 87% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 111.94 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 115.92. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 116.45. First support is November's low crossing at 113.53. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 111.94.
The March British Pound closed higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2760 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March resumes the decline off September's high, the October-2016 low crossing at 1.2384 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2760. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2936. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at 1.2540. Second support is the October-2016 low crossing at 1.2384.
The March Swiss Franc closed higher on Thursday.The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off November's low, the 38% retracement level of the September-November-decline crossing at 1.0256 is the next upside target. If March resumes the decline off last-Tuesday's high, November's low crossing at 1.0018 is the next downside target. First resistance is today's high crossing at 1.0252. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the September-November-decline crossing at 1.0256. First support is the reaction low crossing at 1.0097. Second support is November's low crossing at 1.0018.
The March Canadian Dollar lower on Thursday as it extends the decline off October's high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off October's high, the May-2017 low crossing at 73.67 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 75.12 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 75.12. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 75.89. First support is today's low crossing at 74.08. Second support is the May-2017 low crossing at 73.67.
The March Japanese Yen closed higher on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday’s night session begins trading. If March extends today's rally, the 38% retracement level of the March-November-decline crossing at 0.0921 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0892 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 0.0909. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the March-November-decline crossing at 0.0921. First support is December's low crossing at 1.0886. Second support is November's low crossing at 0.0885.
PRECIOUS METALS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=metals ""
February gold closed higher on Thursday as it extends the rally off November's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off November's low, the 50% retracement level of the April-August-Decline crossing at 1285.70 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 1235.30 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 1270.30. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the April-August-Decline crossing at 1285.70. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1235.30. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 1216.80.
March silver closed higher on Thursday as it extends the rally off November's low. The high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, November's high crossing at 15.040 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 14.570 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 14.915. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 15.040. First support is the reaction low crossing at 14.115. Second support is November's low crossing at 13.985.
March copper closed higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off December's high, August's low crossing at 260.00 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 275.87 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 280.35. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 285.80. First support is today's low crossing at 265.00. Second support is August's low crossing at 260.00.
GRAINS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
March Corn closed down 6 1/2-cents at 3.75 1/2.
March corn closed lower on Thursday despite today's strong export sales data. However, traders were disappointed that today's strong sales number was below pre-report expectations, which triggered a round of long-liquidation. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends today's decline, the September-November uptrend line crossing near 3.72 1/4 is the next downside target. If March resumes the rally off November's low, November's high crossing at 3.90 is the next upside target. First resistance is November's high crossing at 3.90. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 3.98 3/4. First support is the September-November uptrend line crossing near 3.72 1/4. Second support is November's low crossing at 3.67 1/4.
March wheat closed up 1-cent at 5.23 1/2.
March wheat closed higher on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.20 3/4 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. If March extends the rally off November's low, the 38% retracement level of the August-November decline crossing at 5.50 1/2 is the next upside target. First resistance last-Thursday's high crossing at 5.38 1/2. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the August-November decline crossing at 5.50 1/2. First support is the reaction low crossing at 5.10. Second support is November's low crossing at 5.03 1/4.
March Kansas City Wheat closed up 1-cent at 5.09 1/2.
March Kansas City wheat closed higher on Thursday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.04 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March renews the rally off November's low, November's high crossing at 5.33 3/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is November's high crossing at 5.33 3/4. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 5.57. First support is the reaction low crossing at 4.90. Second support is November's low crossing at 4.82 1/4.
March Minneapolis wheat closed down a 1/2-cent at 5.68.
March Minneapolis wheat closed fractionally lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this week's decline, July's low crossing at 5.59 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.82 1/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is December's high crossing at 5.89 1/2. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 5.93. First support is November's low crossing at 5.67 1/2. Second support is July's low crossing at 5.59.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
January soybeans closed down 4 1/2-cents at 8.95 1/2.
January soybeans closed lower on Thursday after improved weather conditions in South America could improve already massive yield expectations in Brazil and Argentina for 2018/19. January and March futures both fell. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Today's close below the 20-day moving average crossing at 9.00 1/4 confirms that a short-term top has been posted. If January resumes the rally off September's low, the 50% retracement level of the May-September-decline crossing at 9.45 1/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the May-September-decline crossing at 917. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the May-September-decline crossing at 9.45 1/4. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 8.86 1/2. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 8.57.
March soybean meal closed up $0.30 at 312.30.
March soybean meal closed slightly higher on Thursday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower possible near-term. If March extends the decline off December's high, November's low crossing at 305.30 is the next downside target. If March renews the rally off November's low, October's high crossing at 327.40 is the next upside target. First resistance is October's high crossing at 327.40. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the May-September-decline crossing at 330.30. First support is November's low crossing at 305.30. Second support is September's low crossing at 303.40.
March soybean oil closed down 19 pts. at 28.53.
March soybean oil lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Today's close below the 20-day moving average crossing at 28.60 confirms that a short-term top has been posted. If March renews the rally off November's low, the 75% retracement level of the October-November-decline crossing at 29.74 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the October-November-decline crossing at 29.33. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the October-November-decline crossing at 29.74. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 28.60. Second support is November's low crossing at 27.42.
LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock
February hogs closed down $0.32 at $62.70.
February hogs closed slightly lower on Thursday as it extends the decline off November's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If February extends the aforementioned decline, November's low crossing at 59.25 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 65.60 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 68.60. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 68.83. First support is today's low crossing at 61.80. Second support is November's low crossing at 59.25.
February cattle closed up $0.10 at 122.35.
February cattle closed higher on Thursday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 120.47 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If February resumes the rally off November's low, the October 26th reaction high crossing at 123.68 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 123.27. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 123.68. First support is the reaction's low crossing at 118.57. Second support is November's crossing at 116.67.
January Feeder cattle closed up 1.23 at $147.43.
January Feeder cattle closed higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 147.66 would open the door for a possible test of the November 21st reaction high crossing at 150.00. If January resumes the decline off last Thursday's high, December's low crossing at 143.12 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 147.66. Second resistance is the November 21st reaction high crossing at 150.00. First support is December's low crossing at 143.13. Second support is November's low crossing at 142.67.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
March coffee closed higher on Thursday following Wednesday's key reversal up as it rebounded off September's low crossing at 9.86. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 10.60 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March extends the decline off October's high, weekly support crossing at 9.51 is the next downside target.
March cocoa closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, November's high crossing at 24.10 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 21.88 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.
March sugar closed slightly lower on Thursday. The high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 12.99 would confirm that a low has been posted. If March renews the decline off October's high, the reaction low crossing at 11.91 is the next downside target.
March cotton closed sharply lower on Thursday as it extends this month's decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower possible near-term. If March extends this week's decline, the 62% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 74.43 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 79.09 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.
Thank you tallpine!