Trade War?
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Started by joj - March 1, 2018, 9:31 p.m.

I heard someone say Canada announced it will retaliate.  I haven't been able to find anything on a search.  You know Canada, right?  Our biggest trading partner.

Today the Steel companies' stock values went up 2.3 billion dollars.  That doesn't quite make up for the 300+ billion in losses for the market as a whole.

Didn't we settle this issue over 80 years ago?  Trade is good.  Trade wars are bad.

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Re: Trade War?
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By TimNew - March 2, 2018, 3:47 a.m.
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I disagree with Trump on a lot of issues,  but never more strongly than on this.  Prior to this,  I would have given him pretty high marks on economic policy.

Re: Trade War?
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By TimNew - March 2, 2018, 6:31 a.m.
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I'm hoping he's using this as some sort of bargaining chip.  If he seriously intends to keep this in place for any length of time, he'll do serious damage to the economy. Even as a bargaining chip it's ill advised...


His claim that his primary target is China rings hollow as he has made this apply to all steel imports.

He really needed to stop at the corp tax cut. That was enough to tip the scale more in our favor.

I remember reading a story about how steel tariffs killed some decent US Business. This time will be no different.

The producers of products using steel in the US have competition overseas that don't have the same artificial expense. The finished products made in the US reflect the higher cost of steel, the imported products will not.  They'll easily undersell the US producers and put them out of business.

The net loss is nearly impossible to calculate and fixing it by adding more tariffs will help to create a spiral.

As I've said,  NO ONE wins a trade war.  Not the foreign competition,  not the US producers, and definitely not the end users. 

BTW, this completely changes my predictions for the equities markets. This is such fundamental shift that the long running bull is now due for a significant correction from which we are unlikely to quickly recover. I expect that all the formerly bullish economic measures we've been seeing will be changing over the next months.

By mcfarm - March 2, 2018, 7:10 a.m.
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tim, as with most Trump policy moves the reaction is way over blown. As America is back in game with lower taxes and better business environment investments will eventually be the headlines {not in lib papers of course} and this trade deal will fade into the background

By TimNew - March 2, 2018, 7:23 a.m.
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I am not basing my opinion on "LIB Papers" and this is not overblown.  It's a big deal of historic proportion with lots of economic and historic data to back it up.


IOW, a HUGE mistake.


We'll have to agree to disagree and time is very likely to change your mind.

By Vandenplas - March 2, 2018, 7:23 a.m.
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Well, attention, everyone:  I agree with tim new about nobody wins a trade war.  Does anyone remember, or remember reading about, the late 1920's, early 1930's?

By mcfarm - March 2, 2018, 9:02 a.m.
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interesting you went beck tot 20's as an example....here is Obama's 35% tariff released late on slow news nite that more than likely was never mentioned the next Monday morning by the breathless lefty's all over  http://www.weeklystandard.com/obamas-tire-tariff/article/241818msm                           

By TimNew - March 2, 2018, 10:24 a.m.
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IMO, Tariffs are always a bad idea.   But comparing a tire tariff to a steel/alum tariff is beyond apples and oranges. Steel is a massive factor in the economy.

By mcfarm - March 2, 2018, 10:36 a.m.
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yes, Tim of course that's true but prospective nowdays is what's it all about and the way the msm's play it...for example did they mention Canada is our number 1 source and brazil  second? 

 

https://talk.newagtalk.com/forums/thread-view.asp?tid=767080&mid=6614962#M6614962   like this point too

 

By joj - March 2, 2018, 10:07 a.m.
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Trump's world view is that their are winners and losers.  He believes that in business and economics the game is zero sum.   He has said as much.  Trade from cave man days onward is about 1+1=3.  You know how to make chairs, I know how to make tables.  Both our lives are enhanced.  We both "Win".

By Vandenplas - March 2, 2018, 9:54 a.m.
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Let's hope not.

Go Roy and mcfarn!!!!


By patrick - March 2, 2018, 2:16 p.m.
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This isn't a real tariff yet, it's just an announcement of an intention to impose one.

Which means there's still a chance that it gets stopped. The solar panel tariff is working out about as poorly as expected.
http://www.independent.co.uk/sunpower-layoffs-job-losses-donald-trump-solar-panel-tariff-30-per-cent-a8233866.html

as is the washing machine-
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-01-30/trump-washing-machine-tariff-bites-as-buying-expectations-plunge

so I guess we can expect a new couple of tariffs every month or so.


Re: Trade War?
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By eagleeyes - March 11, 2018, 8:02 p.m.
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I was surprised that Canada was the number one importer of US steel. Trump should have a panel to review why we couldn't compete with Canada and found a remedy to it. China is number 11 importer of US steel. The 10 front runners are most of our allies and have similar market economy. My rough guess that the problem is labor union. 48 years ago, I with a group of engineers visited a steel company in Indiana. The guide employee boasted that he believed that their labor employee made much more than junior engineers of us did.