Weather Saturday
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Started by metmike - Dec. 15, 2018, 12:09 p.m.

10 days until Christmas!  Just another day?  Do something special for somebody today. Seriously, don't just think about it for a moment......do it now.

 Scroll down and  enjoy the latest comprehensive weather to the max.  Mild and quiet weather pattern coming up after these current rains end.
Here are the latest hazards across the country.

Purple/Pink/blue is cold/Winter weather. Brown is wind,  Green is flooding. Gray is fog.  Reddish is a red flag advisory. Yellow-Tornado watch.

Go to the link below, then hit the location/county on the map for details.

                          https://www.spc.noaa.gov/  Go to "hazards"                                                                                     

                   


Winter Weather

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/winter_wx.shtml


Image result for image of snowflakes


Snowfall the next 3 days from the NAM model


Forecast Hour:  069
Image URL: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/nam/12/nam_namer_069_snodpth_chng.gif

   

nam_namer_069_snodpth_chng.gif

Low Temperatures Tomorrow Morning

Comments
By metmike - Dec. 15, 2018, 12:10 p.m.
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More after my grandsons basketball game...turns out that I never made it to the game.

On leaving the house, I found a 90 foot oak tree uprooted in the front yard, laying across and blocking the road. 

Last month, the weeping willow tree in our front yard was uprooted.

2 years ago, a 100 foot oak tree was uprooted in the front yard. 


The problem is that we are on a hill. All these trees are on a slope and leaning towards the street. When we have heavy rains(3+ inches last night) the ground gets mushy and the weight of the tree, leaning way over to one side, is too much for the roots, anchored in mushy soil.


By metmike - Dec. 15, 2018, 2:43 p.m.
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High Temperatures today and tomorrow.

MILD!

   

               

By metmike - Dec. 15, 2018, 2:44 p.m.
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Highs for days 3-7:

Not a great deal of day to day changes......and mild.


http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY3_MAX_filled.gif

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY4_MAX_filled.gifhttp://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY5_MAX_filled.gifhttp://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY6_MAX_filled.gifhttps://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY7_MAX_filled.gif

By metmike - Dec. 15, 2018, 2:45 p.m.
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How do these days 3-7 temperatures compare to average at this time of year?

 
Above average everywhere, much above in the N.Plains and vicinity!



http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/hpcmaxwbg.gif


Low Temperature Departures:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/hpcminwbg.gif

By metmike - Dec. 15, 2018, 2:47 p.m.
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Surface features for the same 3-7 day period:


Mild temps. Canada is very mild, so cold fronts

will lack cold air.  New storm Thursday in the South that tracks n/northeast.

 https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif

By metmike - Dec. 15, 2018, 2:49 p.m.
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The latest liquid equivalent precip forecasts for the next week are below.


 Dry next week in the Plains to Western Midwest.  New storm Thursday in the South, tracks north to northeast.



Day 1 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_94qwbg.gif?1526306199054

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_94qwbg.gif?1531339983148

Day 2 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_98qwbg.gif?1528293750112


http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_98qwbg.gif?1531340045174


Day 3 below

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_99qwbg.gif?1528293842764

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_99qwbg.gif?1531340092706



Days 4-5 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1531339379

 Days 6-7 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/97ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/97ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1531339379

7 Day Total precipitation below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.govcdx /qpf/p168i.gif?1530796126






http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif?1530796126

By metmike - Dec. 15, 2018, 2:50 p.m.
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Current Dew Points


Some moisture has moved into the Ohio Valley and vicinity to the East Coast.

  
Current Dew Points

                                    


Latest radar loop


http://www.nws.noaa.gov/radar_tab.php

Doppler Radar National Mosaic Loop

                          

Full resolution version loop (3400x1700 pixels - 2.2mb)
 

      

Central Great Lakes sector loop
Go to: Most Recent Image

Precipitation the past 24 hours


                                    


    

You can go to this link to see precipitation totals from recent time periods:


https://water.weather.gov/precip/


                              Go to precipitation, then scroll down to pick a time frame. Hit states to get the borders to see locations better. Under products, you can hit "observed" or "Percent of normal"      

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++


     Soil moisture anomaly:


Still  wet on this particular metric in an enormous area.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Soilmst_Monitoring/Figures/daily/curr.w.anom.daily.gif


+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Precipitation compared to average for the last 7, 14, 30 and 60 days. 


Usually not updated for previous day until late the next day.

https://www.atmos.illinois.edu/~snodgrss/Ag_Wx.html

http://weather.agribleservices.com/ahps/7_day_percent.png


http://weather.agribleservices.com/ahps/14_day_percent.png

http://weather.agribleservices.com/ahps/30_day_percent.pnghttp://weather.agribleservices.com/ahps/60_day_percent.png

By metmike - Dec. 15, 2018, 2:56 p.m.
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The top map is the Canadian ensemble average, the maps below are the individual members that make up the average


End of week 2....................12Z ensembles from SATURDAY:

Last week progressing to today:

Sunday: Ridge West, trough east amplied even more.......very pronounced with good agreement. Strong northern stream and much colder with this solution.

Monday: Similar to Sunday but not quite as cold

Tuesday: Ridge West, trough East not as amplified or quite as cold.

Wednesday:  Not much different than Tuesday but still pretty cold and by far the coldest model.

Thursday: This model continues to insist on it turning much colder later in week 2 and has been the coldest of all the models by far for quite awhile.

Friday: MUCH milder, more zonal(west to east jet stream) for the average and less deviation south of the polar vortex on the colder ones.

Saturday: Majority remain mild but several members on this model won't give up the idea of the polar vortex shifting south/northern stream bringing down frigid air, which will be getting charged up in Canada during week 2.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Each member is like the parent, Canadian model operational model.......with a slight tweek/variation in parameters. Since we know the equations to represent the physics of the atmosphere in the models are not perfect, its useful to vary some of the equations that are uncertain(can make a difference) to see if it effects the outcome and how.

The average of all these variations(ensembles) often yields a better tool for forecasting. It's always more consistent. The individual operational model, like each individual ensemble member can vary greatly from run to run.........and represent an extreme end of the spectrum at times. The ensemble average of all the members, because it averages the extremes.............from opposite ends of the spectrum.........changes much less from run to run.

360h GZ 500 forecast valid on Dec 30, 2018 12 UTC

GZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecast

By metmike - Dec. 15, 2018, 2:58 p.m.
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0Z GFS Ensembles

Last week progressing to today:


Sunday: Morphing in the colder direction but not nearly as cold as the Canadian ensembles, along with having several mild members.

Monday: Cold members have a slight majority

Tuesday: Similar to yesterday

Wednesday: Similar to Tuesday but the 6z run that came after this was VERY mild.

Thursday: Mix between mild and cold. Battle between southern stream and northern stream. Canada, which will be very mild the next week, may get charged up with cold that will be available for depositing into the US, will any north to south flow that develops.

Friday: Mild members have a majority but still some cold looking ones.

Saturday: Mild solutions have the vast majority.

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSHGT_0z/f360.gif

By metmike - Dec. 15, 2018, 3:02 p.m.
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Latest, updated graph/forecast for AO and NAO here, including an explanation of how to interpret them. 

Last week at the top, progressing to today:


Sunday: AO slightly negative, NAO slightly positive.

Monday: AO still slightly negative.......increases cold potential. NAO slightly positive.......makes it a tad tougher for the cold to penetrate as deeply. The PNA is a tad positive, which favors cold in the east a tad.

Tuesday: AO has a few members that dive strongly negative but some much higher....huge spread. NAO near 0.

Wednesday: AO goes negative in week 2(without the extreme negatives from yesterday), then drifts back towards zero at the end of week 2. NAO near zero.

Thursday:  NAO is close to zero. AO, drops negative(helps with cold air delivery) but recovers close to zero near the end. Nothing compelling. PNA which will be positive the next week, drops slowly towards zero in week 2...........nothing compelling.

Friday: NAO close to 0. AO drops negative but is back near zero late week 2(a few positive) and not as favorable for cold air delivery in late December as earlier this week.

Saturday: AO a bit negative. NAO is positive. Flow pattern thru late week 2 is generally unfavorable for cold air to work south. Most models have a mild, zonal flow.

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/15793/

By metmike - Dec. 15, 2018, 3:02 p.m.
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National Weather Service 6-10 day, 8-14 day outlooks.


 Updated early this afternoon.




Temperature Probability

6 to 10 Day Outlook - Temperature Probability
 Precipitation Probability

  6 to 10 Day Outlook - Precipitation Probability

  


the 8-14 day outlooks
ArchivesAnalogsLines-Only FormatGIS Data

Temperature Probability

8 to 14 Day Outlook - Temperature Probability
8 to 14 Day Outlook - Precipitation Probability
By cliff-e - Dec. 15, 2018, 3:32 p.m.
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Very mild and warm for us in W.Mn with temps. In upper 30s to mid 40s for a few days and a few more to come. We've seen people in boats on rivers enjoying some fishing and also on shore angling when usually there is ice fishing by now. Winter sports enthusiasts are disappointed but we know the weather can turn on a dime so we'll just enjoy it for now. :-)

By metmike - Dec. 15, 2018, 4:09 p.m.
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Thanks cliff!

Temperatures compared to average are some of the mildest in your neck of the woods.

By WxFollower - Dec. 15, 2018, 9:20 p.m.
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Mike,

 Thanks very much for doing these daily updates!

By metmike - Dec. 15, 2018, 11:30 p.m.
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YW Larry!


Thank YOU for all your valuable contributions.