13 days until Christmas! Just another day? Do something special for somebody today. Seriously, don't just think about it for a moment......do it now.
Scroll down and enjoy the latest comprehensive weather to the max. Next storm develops in the S.Plains midweek and moves farther northeast but is mostly rain...a bit of snow in the coldest air.
Here are the latest hazards across the country.
Purple/Pink/blue is cold/Winter weather. Brown is wind, Green is flooding. Gray is fog. Reddish is a red flag advisory. Yellow-Tornado watch.
Go to the link below, then hit the location/county on the map for details.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/ Go to "hazards"
Winter Weather
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/winter_wx.shtml
Snowfall the next 3 days from the NAM model
Forecast Hour: 069
Image URL: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/nam/12/nam_namer_069_snodpth_chng.gif
| Low Temperatures Tomorrow Morning |
High Temperatures today and tomorrow.
Moderating slowly.
Highs for days 3-7:
Not a great deal of day to day changes.
How do these days 3-7 temperatures compare to average at this time of year?
At or above average everywhere!
Low Temperature Departures:
Surface features for the same 3-7 day period:
Storm in the south and east early in this period.
The latest liquid equivalent precip forecasts for the next week are below.
Lots of precip in the south and east Just a bit as snow on the northwest fringe?
Day 1 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_94qwbg.gif?1526306199054
Day 2 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_98qwbg.gif?1528293750112
Day 3 below
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_99qwbg.gif?1528293842764
Days 4-5 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162
Days 6-7 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/97ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162
7 Day Total precipitation below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.govcdx /qpf/p168i.gif?1530796126
Current Dew Points
Dry air over most of the country.
Latest radar loop
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/radar_tab.php
| Full resolution version loop (3400x1700 pixels - 2.2mb) |
Go to: Most Recent Image
Precipitation the past 24 hours
You can go to this link to see precipitation totals from recent time periods:
https://water.weather.gov/precip/
Go to precipitation, then scroll down to pick a time frame. Hit states to get the borders to see locations better. Under products, you can hit "observed" or "Percent of normal"
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Soil moisture anomaly:
Still wet on this particular metric in an enormous area.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Precipitation compared to average for the last 7, 14, 30 and 60 days.
Usually not updated for previous day until late the next day.
https://www.atmos.illinois.edu/~snodgrss/Ag_Wx.html
The top map is the Canadian ensemble average, the maps below are the individual members that make up the average
End of week 2....................12Z ensembles from WEDNESDAY:
Last week progressing to today:
Thursday: Still huge disagreement between a few very cold members (that bring the northern stream back in with an amplified flow) and mild ones.
Friday: Not much change from yesterday.......though the natural gas market is acting threatened today by the potential for cold to return just after this time frame.
Saturday: Ridge Western Canada, trough East Coast couplet looking slightly more amplified, suggesting better chances for cold in the East/Southeast.
Sunday: Ridge West, trough east amplied even more.......very pronounced with good agreement. Strong northern stream and much colder with this solution.
Monday: Similar to Sunday but not quite as cold
Tuesday: Ridge West, trough East not as amplified or quite as cold.
Wednesday: Not much different than Tuesday but still pretty cold and by far the coldest model.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Each member is like the parent, Canadian model operational model.......with a slight tweek/variation in parameters. Since we know the equations to represent the physics of the atmosphere in the models are not perfect, its useful to vary some of the equations that are uncertain(can make a difference) to see if it effects the outcome and how.
The average of all these variations(ensembles) often yields a better tool for forecasting. It's always more consistent. The individual operational model, like each individual ensemble member can vary greatly from run to run.........and represent an extreme end of the spectrum at times. The ensemble average of all the members, because it averages the extremes.............from opposite ends of the spectrum.........changes much less from run to run.
360h GZ 500 forecast valid on Dec 27, 2018 00 UTC
0Z GFS Ensembles
Last week progressing to today:
Thursday: Ridge sw Canada/trough east on minority, majority mild.
Friday: A few that are more favorable for cold air delivery into the US today. However, this is very uncertain.
Saturday: Similar to the last 2 days.
Sunday: Morphing in the colder direction but not nearly as cold as the Canadian ensembles, along with having several mild members.
Monday: Cold members have a slight majority
Tuesday: Similar to yesterday
Wednesday: Similar to Tuesday but the 6z run that came after this was VERY mild.
Latest, updated graph/forecast for AO and NAO here, including an explanation of how to interpret them.
Last week at the top, progressing to today:
Thursday: Both AO and NAO near zero at the end of week 2. This lessens the risk of intense cold for the 2nd half of December.
Friday: The NAO is still around 0 at the end of 2 weeks but the noteworthy change is the AO plunging late in the period. This INCREASES the threat for intense cold to move south into the US in late December. Big spread, so low confidence in a forecast for that to happen.
Saturday: NAO now a bit positive and AO closer to zero.............decreasing threat for frigid weather in late December.
Sunday: AO slightly negative, NAO slightly positive.
Monday: AO still slightly negative.......increases cold potential. NAO slightly positive.......makes it a tad tougher for the cold to penetrate as deeply. The PNA is a tad positive, which favors cold in the east a tad.
Tuesday: AO has a few members that dive strongly negative but some much higher....huge spread. NAO near 0.
Wednesday: AO goes negative in week 2(without the extreme negatives from yesterday), then drifts back towards zero at the end of week 2. NAO near zero.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/15793/
National Weather Service 6-10 day, 8-14 day outlooks.
Updated early this afternoon.
Temperature Probability | |
Precipitation Probability | |
| the 8-14 day outlooks ArchivesAnalogsLines-Only FormatGIS Data | |
Temperature Probability | |
 | |
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2018/12/10/north-america-sets-all-time-record-snowfall-in-november/
The month of November ended up with the most snowfall ever recorded in North America during the satellite era which goes back to the 1960’s. Unusual cold for the month from Mexico-to-US-to-Canada contributed to this snowfall record in North America. The November snowfall extent in the Northern Hemisphere was the third highest ever recorded in the satellite era and continues an upward trend in recent years.
