KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Wednesday, December 12, 2018
7:00 AM ET. MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey
Composite Idx (previous 340.5)
Composite Idx, W/W% (previous +2.0%)
Purchase Idx-SA (previous 249.9)
Purchase Idx-SA, W/W% (previous +0.8%)
Refinance Idx (previous 836.4)
Refinance Idx, W/W% (previous +6.2%)
8:30 AM ET. November Real Earnings
8:30 AM ET. November CPI
CPI, M/M% (expected +0.0%; previous +0.3%)
Core CPI, M/M% (expected +0.2%; previous +0.2%)
Energy Idx, M/M% (previous +2.4%)
Food Idx, M/M% (previous -0.1%)
Real Avg Wkly Pay-Infla Adj, M/M% (previous +0.1%)
CPI, Y/Y% (expected +2.2%; previous +2.5%)
Core Annual, Y/Y% (expected +2.2%; previous +2.1%)
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Crude Oil Stocks (Bbl) (previous 443.162M)
Crude Oil Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -7.323M)
Gasoline Stocks (Bbl) (previous 226.25M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +1.699M)
Distillate Stocks (Bbl) (previous 125.612M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +3.811M)
Refinery Usage (previous 95.5%)
Total Prod Supplied (Bbl/day) (previous 20.53M)
Total Prod Supplied, Net Chg (Bbl/day) (previous +0.045M)
2:00 PM ET. November Monthly Treasury Statement of Receipts & Outlays of the U.S. Govt
Thursday, December 13, 2018
8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales
Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 1177K)
Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 895K)
Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 711.8K)
8:30 AM ET. November Import & Export Price Indexes
Import Prices (expected -1.0%; previous +0.5%)
Non-Petroleum Prices (previous +0.2%)
Petroleum Prices (previous +2.8%)
8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims
Jobless Claims (expected 225K; previous 231K)
Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous -4K)
Continuing Claims (previous 1631000)
Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous -74K)
9:00 AM ET. SEC Investor Advisory Committee Quarterly Meeting
9:45 AM ET. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 2991B)
Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous -63B)
2:00 PM ET. SEC Closed Meeting
4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings
4:30 PM ET. Money Stock Measures
4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings
Friday, December 14, 2018
8:30 AM ET. November Advance Monthly Sales for Retail & Food Services
Overall Sales-SA, M/M% (expected +0.2%; previous +0.8%)
Sales, Ex-Auto, M/M% (expected +0.3%; previous +0.7%)
Sales, Ex-Auto & Gas, M/M% (previous +0.3%)
9:15 AM ET. November Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization
Industrial Production, M/M% (expected +0.3%; previous +0.1%)
Capacity Utilization % (expected 78.6%; previous 78.4%)
Capacity Utilization, Net Chg (Pts) (previous -0.1)
9:45 AM ET. December US Flash Services PMI
PMI, Services (previous 54.4)
9:45 AM ET. December US Flash Manufacturing PMI
PMI, Mfg (previous 55.4)
10:00 AM ET. October Manufacturing & Trade: Inventories & Sales
Total Inventories (expected +0.5%; previous +0.3%)
Monday, December 17, 2018
8:30 AM ET. December Empire State Manufacturing Survey
Mfg Idx (previous 23.3)
Employment Idx (previous 14.1)
New Orders Idx (previous 20.4)
Prices Received (previous 13.1)
10:00 AM ET. December NAHB Housing Market Index
Housing Mkt Idx (previous 60)
4:00 PM ET. October Treasury International Capital Data
The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=indexes"
The STOCK INDEXES:The March NASDAQ 100 was higher overnight after comments by President Donald Trump and bail for a jailed Huawei Technologies Co. executive revived optimism over trade negotiations between the U.S. and China. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above last-Friday's low crossing at 6881.00 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. If March extends the decline off December's high, November's low crossing at 6449.50 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 6842.38. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 7000.51. First support is Monday's low crossing at 6560.25. Second support is November's low crossing at 6449.50.
The December S&P 500 was higher overnight as it extends the short covering rebound off Monday's low. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low is in or near. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 2695.95 would temper the bearish outlook.If December extends the decline off December's high, April's low crossing at 2583.60 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 2695.95. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2738.91. First support is Monday's low crossing at 2587.00. Second support is April's low crossing at 2583.60.
INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"
INTEREST RATES: March T-bonds was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off November's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off November's low, August's high crossing at 144-06 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 140-11 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 143-31. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 144-06. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 141-25. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 140-11.
March T-notes were steady to slightly higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 119.179 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off November's low, weekly resistance crossing at 121.125 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 120.300. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 121.125. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 120.043. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 119.176.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
January crude oil was slightly higher overnight as it extends the trading range of the past three-weeks. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 54.55 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If January renews the decline off October's high, the June-2017 low crossing at 46.00 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 54.55. Second resistance is the November 16th reaction high crossing at 58.16. First support is the 87% retracement level of the 2017-2018-rally crossing at 49.96. Second support is the June-2017 low crossing at 46.00.
January heating oil was slightly higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above last-Friday's high crossing at 195.34 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. If January resumes the decline off October's high, the 75% retracement level of the 2017-2018-rally crossing at 173.08 is the next downside target. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 195.34. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 213.48. First support is November's low crossing at 178.37. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2017-2018-rally crossing at 173.08.
January unleaded gas was slightly higher overnight as it extends the trading range of the past three-weeks. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above last-Friday's high crossing at 151.77 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If January resumes the decline off October's high, the June-2017 low crossing at 129.88 is the next downside target. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 151.77. Second resistance is the November 16th reaction high crossing at 159.94. First support is November's low crossing at 135.41. Second support is the June-2017 low crossing at 129.88.
January Henry natural gas was lower overnight as it continues to form a symmetrical triangle. The low-range late-overnight trade leaves the door open for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower trading is possible near-term. A breakout in either direction of the symmetrical triangle will point the direction of the next trending move. If January resumes the rally off September's low, the 25% retracement level of the 2008-2016-decline crossing at 5.336 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Friday's low crossing at 4.231 would likely confirm a downside breakout of the aforementioned symmetrical triangle. First resistance is November's high crossing at 4.964. Second resistance is the 25% retracement level of 2008-2016-decline crossing at 5.336. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 4.231. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.831.
CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"
CURRENCIES:The March Dollar was slightly lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this year's rally, weekly resistance crossing at 97.83 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 95.73 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 96.99. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 97.83. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 95.73. Second support is November's low crossing at 94.91.
The March Euro was slightly higher overnight while extending the trading range of the past four-weeks. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March resumes the decline off September's high, the 87% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 111.94 is the next downside target. Closes above trading range resistance crossing at 115.92 are needed to confirm an upside breakout of the aforementioned trading range. First resistance is trading range resistance crossing at 115.92. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 116.45. First support is November's low crossing at 113.54. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 111.94.
The March British Pound was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off September's high. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session beings trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the aforementioned decline, the October-2016 low crossing at 1.2384 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2824 would temper the bearish outlook. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2824. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2995. First support is overnight low crossing at 1.2540. Second support is the Oct.-2016 low crossing at 1.2384.
The March Swiss Franc was lower overnight following Tuesday's key reversal down signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0143 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off November's low, the 38% retracement level of the September-November decline crossing at 1.0256 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the September-November decline crossing at 1.0256. Second resistance the 50% retracement level of the September-November decline crossing at 1.0330. First support is the reaction low crossing at 1.0097. Second support is November's low crossing at 1.0018.
The March Canadian Dollar was slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off October's high. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off October's high, the May-2017 low crossing at 73.67 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 75.49 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the November 16th reaction high crossing at 76.33. Second resistance is the 50-day crossing at 76.22. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 74.55. Second support is weekly support crossing at 73.67.
The March Japanese Yen was steady to slightly lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off last-week's high, November's low crossing at 0.0885 is the next downside target. Closes above November's high crossing at 0.0899 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted while opening the door for additional gains near-term. First resistance is November's high crossing at 0.0899. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 0.0907. First support is the reaction low crossing at 0.0886. Second support is November's low crossing at 0.0885.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"
PRECIOUS METALS: February gold was steady to slightly higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If February extends the rally off November's low, the 38% retracement level of the January-August-decline crossing at 1259.00 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 1229.70 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the April-August-Decline crossing at 1259.00. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the April-August-Decline crossing at 1285.70. First support is the reaction low crossing at 1216.80. Second support is November's low crossing at 1202.40.
March silver was higher overnight as it extends the rally off November's low. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off November's low, October's high crossing at 15.055 is a potential upside target. If March resumes the decline off November's high, monthly support crossing at 13.620 is the next downside target. First resistance is October's high crossing at 15.055. Second resistance is the August 28th reaction high crossing at 15.175. First support the reaction low crossing at 14.115. Second support is November's low crossing at 13.985.
March copper was steady to slightly lower overnight. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 276.94 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. If March renews the decline off November's high, November's low crossing at 266.20 is the next downside target. First resistance is September's high crossing at 288.80. Second resistance is the July 5th gap crossing at 295.45. First support is November's low crossing at 266.20. Second support is September's low crossing at 260.30.
GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains
March corn was steady to higher overnight as it extends this month's trading range. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off November's low, November's high crossing at 3.90 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.77 1/2 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is November's high crossing at 3.90. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 3.98 3/4. First support is November's low crossing at 3.67 1/4. Second support is September's low crossing at 3.54 3/4.
March wheat was higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off November's low, the 38% retracement level of the August-November-decline crossing at 5.50 1/2 is the next downside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.15 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 5.32. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the August-November-decline crossing at 5.50 1/2. First support is November's low crossing at 5.03 1/4. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2017-2018-rally crossing at 5.01.
March Kansas City Wheat closed down 5 1/2-cents at 5.04 3/4.
March Kansas City wheat closed lower on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off November's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.19 3/4 is the next upside target. If March renews the decline off October's high, weekly support crossing at 4.53 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.19 3/4. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 5.33 3/4. First support is November's low crossing at 4.82 1/4. Second support is weekly support crossing at 4.53.
March Minneapolis wheat was higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off November's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.85 is the next upside target. If March renews the decline off October's high, July's low crossing at 5.59 is the next downside target. If First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.85. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 5.93. First support is November's low crossing at 5.67 1/2. Second support is July's low crossing at 5.59.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
January soybeans was higher overnight while extending last-week's trading range. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If January resumes the rally off November's low, the 50% retracement level of the May-September-decline crossing at 9.45 1/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 8.83 1/2 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the May-September-decline crossing at 9.17. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the May-September-decline crossing at 9.45 1/4. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 8.83 1/2. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 8.57.
March soybean meal was higher overnight while extending this fall's trading range. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above last-Monday's high crossing at 321.70 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March extends the decline off December's high, November's low crossing at 305.30 is the next downside target. First resistance is December's high crossing at 321.70. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 327.40. First support is November's low crossing at 305.30. Second support is September's low crossing at 303.40.
March soybean oil was higher overnight as it extends the rally off November's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off November's low, the 75% retracement level of the October-November decline crossing at 29.74 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 28.40 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the October-November decline crossing at 29.33. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the October-November decline crossing at 29.74. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 28.86. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 28.40.
LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock
February hogs closed down $1.63 at $65.20.
February hogs closed lower on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 64.68 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If February renews the rally off October's low, weekly resistance crossing at 72.88 is the next upside target. First resistance is November's high crossing at 69.50. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 72.88. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 64.68. Second support is November's low crossing at 59.25.
February cattle closed up $0.95 at 122.15.
February cattle closed higher on Tuesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If February extends the rally off November's low, the October 26th reaction high crossing at 123.68 is the next upside target. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 118.57 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 122.55. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 123.68. First support is the reaction's low crossing at 118.57. Second support is November's crossing at 116.67.
January Feeder cattle closed up $2.28 at $147.30.
January Feeder cattle closed sharply higher on Tuesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Today's close above the 20-day moving average crossing at 146.43 confirms that a short-term low has been posted. If January resumes the decline off November's high, November's low crossing at 142.67 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 148.73. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 150.00. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at 143.13. Second support is November's low crossing at 142.67.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
March coffee closed lower on Tuesday as it extends the decline off October's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off October's high, the reaction low crossing at 10.00 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 11.06 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.
March cocoa closed lower on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March renews the decline off November's high, October's low crossing at 20.08 is the next downside target. If March renews last-Friday's rally, the reaction high crossing at 22.71 is the next upside target.
March sugar closed higher on Tuesday. The high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March renews the rally off November's low, the reaction high crossing at 13.54 is the next upside target. If March renews the decline off October's high, the reaction low crossing at 11.91 is the next downside target.
March cotton closed slightly higher on Tuesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off November's low, September's high crossing at 84.22 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 78.86 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.
Thanks tallpine, as you mentioned, 4.231 is a key level for NGF today.