14 days until Christmas! Just another day? Do something special for somebody today. Seriously, don't just think about it for a moment......do it now.
Scroll down and enjoy the latest comprehensive weather to the max. Next storm develops in the S.Plains midweek and moves farther northeast but is mostly rain...a bit of snow in the coldest air.
Here are the latest hazards across the country.
Purple/Pink/blue is cold/Winter weather. Brown is wind, Green is flooding. Gray is fog. Reddish is a red flag advisory. Yellow-Tornado watch.
Go to the link below, then hit the location/county on the map for details.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/ Go to "hazards"
Winter Weather
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/winter_wx.shtml
Snowfall the next 3 days from the NAM model
Forecast Hour: 069
Image URL: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/nam/12/nam_namer_069_snodpth_chng.gif
| Low Temperatures Tomorrow Morning |
High Temperatures today and tomorrow.
Moderating slowly.
Highs for days 3-7:
Not a great deal of day to day changes.
How do these days 3-7 temperatures compare to average at this time of year?
At or above average everywhere!
Low Temperature Departures:
Surface features for the same 3-7 day period:
Becoming very active mid/late week, from the S. Plains(with some snow in the coldest air but almost all rain) then east and northeast.
The latest liquid equivalent precip forecasts for the next week are below.
Next storm...mid/late next week. Lots of precip with that one as it tracks from the S.Plains, northeastward. Just a bit as snow on the northwest fringe?
Day 1 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_94qwbg.gif?1526306199054
Day 2 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_98qwbg.gif?1528293750112
Day 3 below
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_99qwbg.gif?1528293842764
Days 4-5 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162
Days 6-7 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/97ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162
7 Day Total precipitation below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.govcdx /qpf/p168i.gif?1530796126
Current Dew Points
Dry air over most of the country.
Latest radar loop
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/radar_tab.php
| Full resolution version loop (3400x1700 pixels - 2.2mb) |
Go to: Most Recent Image
Precipitation the past 24 hours
You can go to this link to see precipitation totals from recent time periods:
https://water.weather.gov/precip/
Go to precipitation, then scroll down to pick a time frame. Hit states to get the borders to see locations better. Under products, you can hit "observed" or "Percent of normal"
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Soil moisture anomaly:
Still wet on this particular metric in an enormous area.
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Precipitation compared to average for the last 7, 14, 30 and 60 days.
Usually not updated for previous day until late the next day.
https://www.atmos.illinois.edu/~snodgrss/Ag_Wx.html
The top map is the Canadian ensemble average, the maps below are the individual members that make up the average
End of week 2....................12Z ensembles from TUESDAY:
Last week progressing to today:
Wednesday: Looks similar to Tuesday with a wide spread between much colder solutions, which are increaseing a bit and the mild look that dominated a few days ago on some solutions.
Thursday: Still huge disagreement between a few very cold members (that bring the northern stream back in with an amplified flow) and mild ones.
Friday: Not much change from yesterday.......though the natural gas market is acting threatened today by the potential for cold to return just after this time frame.
Saturday: Ridge Western Canada, trough East Coast couplet looking slightly more amplified, suggesting better chances for cold in the East/Southeast.
Sunday: Ridge West, trough east amplied even more.......very pronounced with good agreement. Strong northern stream and much colder with this solution.
Monday: Similar to Sunday but not quite as cold
Tuesday: Ridge West, trough East not as amplified or quite as cold.
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Each member is like the parent, Canadian model operational model.......with a slight tweek/variation in parameters. Since we know the equations to represent the physics of the atmosphere in the models are not perfect, its useful to vary some of the equations that are uncertain(can make a difference) to see if it effects the outcome and how.
The average of all these variations(ensembles) often yields a better tool for forecasting. It's always more consistent. The individual operational model, like each individual ensemble member can vary greatly from run to run.........and represent an extreme end of the spectrum at times. The ensemble average of all the members, because it averages the extremes.............from opposite ends of the spectrum.........changes much less from run to run.
360h GZ 500 forecast valid on Dec 26, 2018 00 UTC
0Z GFS Ensembles
Last week progressing to today:
Wednesday: Pronounced ridge southwest Canada/trough east couplet on many members. Still no strong northern stream with frigid air as some Canadian solutions show.
Thursday: Ridge sw Canada/trough east on minority, majority mild.
Friday: A few that are more favorable for cold air delivery into the US today. However, this is very uncertain.
Saturday: Similar to the last 2 days.
Sunday: Morphing in the colder direction but not nearly as cold as the Canadian ensembles, along with having several mild members.
Monday: Cold members have a slight majority
Tuesday: Similar to yesterday
Latest, updated graph/forecast for AO and NAO here, including an explanation of how to interpret them.
Last week at the top, progressing to today:
Wednesday: Both AO and NAO are more negative then yesterday during week 2 (increasing the risk of cold later this month a bit) but just a bit below zero at the end of the period.
Thursday: Both AO and NAO near zero at the end of week 2. This lessens the risk of intense cold for the 2nd half of December.
Friday: The NAO is still around 0 at the end of 2 weeks but the noteworthy change is the AO plunging late in the period. This INCREASES the threat for intense cold to move south into the US in late December. Big spread, so low confidence in a forecast for that to happen.
Saturday: NAO now a bit positive and AO closer to zero.............decreasing threat for frigid weather in late December.
Sunday: AO slightly negative, NAO slightly positive.
Monday: AO still slightly negative.......increases cold potential. NAO slightly positive.......makes it a tad tougher for the cold to penetrate as deeply. The PNA is a tad positive, which favors cold in the east a tad.
Tuesday: AO has a few members that dive strongly negative but some much higher....huge spread. NAO near 0.
National Weather Service 6-10 day, 8-14 day outlooks.
Updated early this afternoon.
Temperature Probability | |
Precipitation Probability | |
| the 8-14 day outlooks ArchivesAnalogsLines-Only FormatGIS Data | |
Temperature Probability | |
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The 12Z guidance was the same to slightly milder...........except for the Canadian ensembles at the end of week 2....shown below.
Some members are extraordinarily bullish with the polar vortex becoming displaced very far south. If this would happen, natural gas will break out to the upside above $5.
If this were just 1 operational, outlier run that goes against the pattern that is expected to evolve during that period.........its' worth a grain of salt.
Since its just an amplified version of the expected pattern for this period as predicted by many models and on numerous members..........it justifies some serious consideration.
The main element which will determine whether the models get the right grip on future reality for this time frame will be their ability to "see" the northern stream influence properly. This is often a big problem. With the AO this morning suddenly diving much lower on a couple of members, should those be on to something, then the Canadian model has the right idea.
The model below is at the bullish extreme. The GFS products were NOT this cold.
The Euro ensemble is not out yet.
360h GZ 500 forecast valid on Dec 26, 2018 12UTC
European model ensembles are out and they stay pretty mild in most areas thru 2 weeks(closer to average at the end of the period), with only modest northwest flow from Canada.
In fact, the most noteworthy item on this product is the record warmth in Canada, so air masses headed south in the northwest flow will not be especially cold.
The Canadian ensembles from above were MUCH different, with frigid cross polar flow in some cases and in most case, from the highest latitudes coming south, along with, in some cases, the polar vortex..........towards the end of 2 weeks.
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2018/12/10/north-america-sets-all-time-record-snowfall-in-november/
The month of November ended up with the most snowfall ever recorded in North America during the satellite era which goes back to the 1960’s. Unusual cold for the month from Mexico-to-US-to-Canada contributed to this snowfall record in North America. The November snowfall extent in the Northern Hemisphere was the third highest ever recorded in the satellite era and continues an upward trend in recent years.
