17 days until Christmas! Just another day? Give somebody an early present today. Seriously, don't just think about it for a moment......do it now.
Scroll down and enjoy the latest comprehensive weather to the max. Snow in the S.Plains ends, heavy rains in the south with snow in the colder air on the northern parts of the system....moves east.
Here are the latest hazards across the country.
Purple/Pink/blue is cold/Winter weather. Brown is wind, Green is flooding. Gray is fog. Reddish is a red flag advisory. Yellow-Tornado watch.
Go to the link below, then hit the location/county on the map for details.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/ Go to "hazards"
Winter Weather
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/winter_wx.shtml
Snowfall forecast for the next 3 days below from NAM model
| Low Temperatures Tomorrow Morning |
High Temperatures today and tomorrow.
Cold penetrates pretty far south.
Highs for days 3-7:
Moderating in the N. Plains next week!
How do these days 3-7 temperatures compare to average at this time of year?
Coldest compared to average/blues are shrinking!
Low Temperature Departures:
Surface features for the same 3-7 day period:
.
Cold Canadian high pressure moderates next week. New BIG storm in the S.Plains mid/late week tracks northeast .
The latest liquid equivalent precip forecasts for the next week are below.
Very wet in the south right now. Snow on the northern fringe of the precipitation shield. Bad for unharvested cotton.
Next storm...mid/late next week. Lots of precip with that one as it tracks from the S.Plains, northeastward.
Day 1 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_94qwbg.gif?1526306199054
Day 2 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_98qwbg.gif?1528293750112
Day 3 below
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_99qwbg.gif?1528293842764
Days 4-5 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162
Days 6-7 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/97ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162
7 Day Total precipitation below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.govcdx /qpf/p168i.gif?1530796126
Current Dew Points
Dry air over most of the country. Green moisture has returned a bit in the south.
Latest radar loop
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/radar_tab.php
| Full resolution version loop (3400x1700 pixels - 2.2mb) |
Go to: Most Recent Image
Precipitation the past 24 hours
You can go to this link to see precipitation totals from recent time periods:
https://water.weather.gov/precip/
Go to precipitation, then scroll down to pick a time frame. Hit states to get the borders to see locations better. Under products, you can hit "observed" or "Percent of normal"
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Soil moisture anomaly:
Still wet on this particular metric in an enormous area.
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Precipitation compared to average for the last 7, 14, 30 and 60 days.
Usually not updated for previous day until late the next day.
https://www.atmos.illinois.edu/~snodgrss/Ag_Wx.html
more stuff later this morning after our grandsons basketball game
The top map is the Canadian ensemble average, the maps below are the individual members that make up the average
End of week 2....................12Z ensembles from SATURDAY:
Last week progressing to today:
Sunday: Most solutions are VERY mild, so high confidence for a period this far out..
Monday/Today: Still mild but a few(minority) solutions morph towards a ridge west/trough east pattern.
Tuesday: Huge change in the cold direction by several members that bring in the cold northern stream...........a couple of members that displace the polar vortex southward. Ridge west/trough east is now prevalent enough to show up on the ensemble average.
Wednesday: Looks similar to Tuesday with a wide spread between much colder solutions, which are increaseing a bit and the mild look that dominated a few days ago on some solutions.
Thursday: Still huge disagreement between a few very cold members (that bring the northern stream back in with an amplified flow) and mild ones.
Friday: Not much change from yesterday.......though the natural gas market is acting threatened today by the potential for cold to return just after this time frame.
Saturday: Ridge Western Canada, trough East Coast couplet looking slightly more amplified, suggesting better chances for cold in the East/Southeast.
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Each member is like the parent, Canadian model operational model.......with a slight tweek/variation in parameters. Since we know the equations to represent the physics of the atmosphere in the models are not perfect, its useful to vary some of the equations that are uncertain(can make a difference) to see if it effects the outcome and how.
The average of all these variations(ensembles) often yields a better tool for forecasting. It's always more consistent. The individual operational model, like each individual ensemble member can vary greatly from run to run.........and represent an extreme end of the spectrum at times. The ensemble average of all the members, because it averages the extremes.............from opposite ends of the spectrum.........changes much less from run to run.
360h GZ 500 forecast valid on Dec 23, 2018 00 UTC
0Z GFS Ensembles
Last week progressing to today:
Sunday: Very mild vast majority, increases confidence
Monday/today: Still very mild
Tuesday: Still very mild.
Wednesday: Pronounced ridge southwest Canada/trough east couplet on many members. Still no strong northern stream with frigid air as some Canadian solutions show.
Thursday: Ridge sw Canada/trough east on minority, majority mild.
Friday: A few that are more favorable for cold air delivery into the US today. However, this is very uncertain.
Saturday: Similar to the last 2 days.
Latest, updated graph/forecast for AO and NAO here, including an explanation of how to interpret them.
Last week at the top, progressing to today:
Sunday: Both NAO and AO close to zero in 2 weeks. This keeps the risk of extreme cold outbreaks lower than average for mid December.
Monday/Today: AO increasing sharply, drops a bit late. NAO spikes higher but is falling in week 2 back to zero.
Tuesday: Both AO and NAO close to zero late week 2 but with enough spread for plenty of certainty, especially in light of some of the Canadian ensembles preferring the return to frigid weather.
Wednesday: Both AO and NAO are more negative then yesterday during week 2 (increasing the risk of cold later this month a bit) but just a bit below zero at the end of the period.
Thursday: Both AO and NAO near zero at the end of week 2. This lessens the risk of intense cold for the 2nd half of December.
Friday: The NAO is still around 0 at the end of 2 weeks but the noteworthy change is the AO plunging late in the period. This INCREASES the threat for intense cold to move south into the US in late December. Big spread, so low confidence in a forecast for that to happen.
Saturday: NAO now a bit positive and AO closer to zero.............decreasing threat for frigid weather in late December.
National Weather Service 6-10 day, 8-14 day outlooks.
Updated early this afternoon.
Temperature Probability | |
Precipitation Probability | |
| the 8-14 day outlooks ArchivesAnalogsLines-Only FormatGIS Data | |
Temperature Probability | |
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