KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Friday, December 7, 2018
8:30 AM ET. November U.S. Employment Report
Non-Farm Payrolls (previous +250K)
Unemployment Rate (previous 3.7%)
Avg Hourly Earnings (USD) (previous 27.30)
Avg Hourly Earnings-Net Chg (USD) (previous +0.05)
Avg Hourly Earnings, M/M% (previous +0.18%)
Avg Hourly Earnings, Y/Y% (previous +3.1%)
Overall Workweek (previous 34.5)
Overall Workweek Net Chg (previous +0.1)
Government Payrolls (previous +4K)
Private Payroll (previous +246K)
Participation Rate (previous 62.9%)
Non-Farm Payrolls Bench Net Chg
10:00 AM ET. December University of Michigan Survey of Consumers – preliminary
Mid-Mo Sentiment (previous 98.3)
Mid-Mo Expectations (previous 88.7)
Mid-Mo Current Idx (previous 113.2)
10:00 AM ET. October Monthly Wholesale Trade
Inventories, M/M% (previous +0.4%)
The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes ""
The March NASDAQ 100 closed lower on Thursday but well off session lows. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this week's decline, November's low crossing at 6449.50 is the next downside target. If March resumes the rally off November's low, November's high crossing at 7262.00 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 7077.34. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 7262.00. First support is today's low crossing at 6658.50. Second support is November's low crossing at 6449.50.
The December S&P 500 closed lower on Thursday as it extended this week's decline. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends this week's decline, October's low crossing at 2605.00 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 2761.40 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2761.40. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the September-October-decline crossing at 2815.64. First support is today's low crossing at 2622.00. Second support is October's low crossing at 2605.00.
The Dow gapped down and closed lower on Thursday as it extends this week's decline.Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. A rally in the afternoon session tempered early-session losses. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. If the Dow extends this week's decline, October's low crossing at 24,122.23 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 25,219.30 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 25,219.30. Second resistance is Monday's high crossing at 25,980.21. First support is today's low crossing at 24,242.22. Second support is October's low crossing at 24,122.23.
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March T-bonds closed up 27-points at 143-00.
March T-bonds closed higher on Thursday as it extended the rally off November's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off November's low, August's high crossing at 144-06 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 139-13 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 143-26. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 144-06. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 140-18. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 139-13.
March T-notes closed up 110-points at 120-120.
March T-notes closed higher on Thursday and posted a new contract high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off November's low, weekly resistance crossing at 121.125 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 119.017 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 120.275. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 121.125. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 119.184. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 119.017.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
January crude oil closed lower on Thursday amid ongoing uncertainty surrounding the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries' decision on production cuts, which the group has postponed until Friday, when it meets with non-member producers.The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If January resumes the decline off October's high, the June-2017 low crossing at 46.00 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 54.37 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 54.37. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 58.16.First support is the 87% retracement level of the 2017-2018-rally crossing at 49.96. Second support is the June-2017 low crossing at 46.00.
January heating oil closed lower on Thursday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night trading session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If January resumes the decline off October's high, the 75% retracement level of the 2017-2018-rally crossing at 173.08 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 197.21 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 197.21. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 210.09. First support is last Friday's low crossing at 178.37. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2017-2018-rally crossing at 173.08.
January unleaded gas closed lower on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 148.67 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If January resumes the decline off October's high, the June-2017 low crossing at 129.88 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 148.67. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 159.94. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 135.41. Second support is the June-2017 low crossing at 129.88.
January Henry natural gas closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.323 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If January renews the rally off September's low, the 25% retracement level of the 2008-2016-decline crossing at 5.204 is the next upside target. First resistance is November's high crossing at 4.929. Second resistance isthe 25% retracement level of the 2008-2016-decline crossing at 5.204. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.323. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.735.
CURRENCIES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=currencies ""
The March Dollar closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March renews the decline off November's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 95.57 is the next downside target.If March renews the rally off September's low, weekly resistance crossing at 97.83 is the next upside target. First resistance is November's high crossing at 96.93. Second resistance isweekly resistance crossing at 97.83. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 95.57. Second support is November's low crossing at 94.91.
The March Euro closed higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March renews the rally off November's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 115.65 is the next upside target. If March renews the decline off September's high, the 87% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 111.94 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 115.65. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 116.45. First support is November's low crossing at 113.53. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 111.94.
The March British Pound closed higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3035 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March extends the decline off November's high, the 87% retracement level of the 2017-2018-rally crossing at 1.2665 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2903. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3035. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 1.2730. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2017-2018-rally crossing at 1.2665.
The March Swiss Franc closed higher on Thursday while extending the trading range for the past three-weeks.The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above November's high crossing at 1.0204 are needed to renew the rally off November's low. Multiple closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0120 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. If March resumes the decline off September's high, weekly support crossing at 0.9833 is the next downside target. First resistance is November's high crossing at 1.0204. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1.0291. First support is November's low crossing at 1.0018. Second support is weekly support crossing at 0.9833.
The March Canadian Dollar closed lower on Thursday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off October's high, the May-2017 low crossing at 73.67 is the next downside target. Closes above Monday's high crossing at 76.15 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 76.15. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 76.45. First support is today's low crossing at 74.55. Second support is the May-2017 low crossing at 73.67.
The March Japanese Yen closed high on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above November's high crossing at 0.0899 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday’s night session begins trading. If March resumes the decline off October's high, November's low crossing at 0.0885 is the next downside target. First resistance is October's high crossing at 0.0907. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 0.0922. First support is November's low crossing at 0.0885. Second support is weekly support crossing at 0.0877.
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February gold closed slightly lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off November's low, the 38% retracement level of the April-August-Decline crossing at 1259.00 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Wednesday's low crossing at 1216.80 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is October's high crossing at 1252.00. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the April-August-Decline crossing at 1259.00. First support is November's low crossing at 1202.40. Second support is October's low crossing at 1192.00.
March silver closed lower on Thursday. The high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 14.660 would confirm that a low has been posted. If March renews the decline off November's high, November's low crossing at 13.985 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 14.660. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 15.040. First support is November's low crossing at 13.985. Second support is weekly support crossing at 13.860.
March copper closed lower on Thursday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below last-Tuesday's low crossing at 272.50 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March renews the rally off August's low, the 38% retracement level of the June-August-decline crossing at 289.43 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the June-August-decline crossing at 289.43. Second resistance is the July-5th gap crossing at 295.45. First support is November's low crossing at 266.20. Second support is August's low crossing at 260.00.
GRAINS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
March Corn closed down 1 1/2-cents at 3.82 3/4.
March corn closed lower on Thursday as it extended this week's trading range. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Friday's night sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off November's low, November's high crossing at 3.90 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 3.76 1/4 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is November's high crossing at 3.90. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 3.98 3/4. First support is November's low crossing at 3.67 1/4. Second support is September's low crossing at 3.54 3/4.
March wheat closed down 2 3/4-cents at 5.15 1/4.
March wheat closed lower on Thursday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March renews the decline off August's high, the 87% retracement level of the 2017-2018-rally crossing at 5.01 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.23 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.23. Second is October's high crossing at 5.46 1/2. First support is November's low crossing at 5.03 1/4. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2017-2018-rally crossing at 5.01.
March Kansas City Wheat closed down 2 1/2-cents at 4.95 1/2.
March Kansas City wheat closed lower on Thursday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March renews the decline off October's high, weekly support crossing at 4.53 is the next downside target. If March extends the rally off November's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.21 1/2 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.21 1/2. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 5.33 3/4. First support is November's low crossing at 4.82 1/4. Second support is weekly support crossing at 4.53.
March Minneapolis wheat closed down 6 1/4-cents at 5.69 1/4.
March Minneapolis wheat closed lower on Thursday.The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March renews the decline off October's high, July's low crossing at 5.59 is the next downside target. Closes above Monday's high crossing at 5.82 3/4 are needed to renew the rally off November's low. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.88 1/2. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 5.93. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 5.67 1/2. Second support is July's low crossing at 5.59.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
January soybeans closed down 3 3/4-cents at 9.09 3/4.
January soybeans closed lower on Thursday as it consolidates below the 38% retracement level of the May-September-decline crossing at 9.15 3/4. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If January extends the rally off September's low, July's high crossing at 9.32 3/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 8.79 3/4 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the May-September-decline crossing at 917. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the May-September-decline crossing at 9.45 1/4. First support is November's low crossing at 8.57. Second support is October's low crossing at 8.44 1/2.
March soybean meal closed down $1.30 at 315.80.
March soybean meal closed lower on Thursday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher possible near-term. If March extends the rally off November's low, October's high crossing at 327.40 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 312.20 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is October's high crossing at 327.40. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the May-September-decline crossing at 330.30. First support is November's low crossing at 305.30. Second support is September's low crossing at 303.40.
March soybean oil closed down 15 pts. at 28.90.
March soybean oil lower on Thursday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off November's low, October's high crossing at 30.50 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 28.22 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 29.20. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 30.50. First support is November's low crossing at 27.42. Second support is weekly support crossing at 26.88.
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February hogs closed down $0.85 at $66.90.
February hogs closed lower on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 64.62 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If February renews the rally off October's low, weekly resistance crossing at 72.88 is the next upside target. First resistance is November's high crossing at 69.50. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 72.88. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 64.62. Second support is November's low crossing at 59.25.
February cattle closed down $0.58 at 121.80.
February cattle closed lower on Thursday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If February extends the rally off November's low, the October 26th reaction high crossing at 123.68 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Thursday's low crossing at 118.57 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 122.55. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 123.68. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 118.57. Second support is November's crossing at 116.67.
January Feeder cattle closed down $1.28 at $144.20.
January Feeder cattle closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If January extends the decline off November's high, November's low crossing at 142.67 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 146.46 are needed to renew the rally off November's low. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 146.46. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 149.30. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 143.13. Second support is November's low crossing at 142.67.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
March coffee closed unchanged on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off October's high, the reaction low crossing at 10.00 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 11.26 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.
March cocoa closed higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 21.86 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March extends the decline off November's high, October's low crossing at 20.08 is the next downside target.
March sugar closed lower on Thursday. The mid-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March renews the decline off October's high, the reaction low crossing at 11.91 is the next downside target. If March extends the rally off November's low, the reaction high crossing at 13.54 is the next upside target.
March cotton closed sharply lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 78.85 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off November's low, September's high crossing at 84.22 is the next upside target.