KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Tuesday, December 4, 2018
7:45 AM ET. The Retail Economist/Goldman Sachs Weekly Chain Store Sales Index
Chain Store Sales, W/W% (previous -0.1%)
Chain Store Sales, M/M% (previous +2.9%)
8:55 AM ET. Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, M/M% (previous +0.8%)
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, Y/Y% (previous +6.7%)
Latest Wk, Y/Y% (previous +7.9%)
9:45 AM ET. November ISM-NY Report on Business
Business Index (previous 69.8)
10:00 AM ET. 3rd Quarter Quarterly Financial Report – Industry
10:00 AM ET. 3rd Quarter Quarterly Financial Report - Retail Trade
10:00 AM ET. December IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index
Economic Optimism Idx (previous 56.4)
6-Mo Economic Outlook (previous 53.2)
4:30 PM ET. API Weekly Statistical Bulletin
Crude Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +3.5M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -2.6M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +1.2M)
Wednesday, December 5, 2018
7:00 AM ET. MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey
Composite Idx (previous 333.7)
Composite Idx, W/W% (previous +5.5%)
Purchase Idx-SA (previous 247.8)
Purchase Idx-SA, W/W% (previous +8.8%)
Refinance Idx (previous 787.7)
Refinance Idx, W/W% (previous +0.5%)
8:15 AM ET. November ADP National Employment Report
Private Sector Jobs, Net Chg (previous +227000)
8:30 AM ET. 3rd Quarter Revised Productivity & Costs
Non-Farm Productivity (previous +2.9%)
Unit Labor Costs (previous -1.0%)
9:45 AM ET. November US Services PMI
PMI, Services (previous 54.8)
10:00 AM ET. 3rd Quarter Quarterly Services
10:00 AM ET. November Online Help Wanted Index
10:00 AM ET. November ISM Non-Manufacturing Report on Business
Non-Mfg Composite Idx (previous 60.3)
Non-Mfg Business Idx (previous 62.5)
Prices Idx (previous 61.7)
Employment Idx (previous 59.7)
New Orders Idx (previous 61.5)
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Crude Oil Stocks (Bbl) (previous 450.485M)
Crude Oil Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +3.577M)
Gasoline Stocks (Bbl) (previous 224.551M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -0.764M)
Distillate Stocks (Bbl) (previous 121.801M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +2.61M)
Refinery Usage (previous 95.6%)
Total Prod Supplied (Bbl/day) (previous 20.485M)
Total Prod Supplied, Net Chg (Bbl/day) (previous -0.779M)
11:00 AM ET. November Global Services PMI
PMI, Services (previous 53.4)
2:00 PM ET. U.S. Federal Reserve Beige Book
Thursday, December 6, 2018
7:30 AM ET. November Challenger Job-Cut Report
Job Cuts, M/M% (previous +36.8%)
8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales
Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 1266.5K)
Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 628.8K)
Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 377.1K)
8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims
Jobless Claims (previous 234K)
Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous +10K)
Continuing Claims (previous 1710000)
Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous +50K)
8:30 AM ET. October U.S. International Trade in Goods & Services
Trade Balance (USD) (previous -54.02B)
Exports (USD) (previous 212.57B)
Exports, M/M% (previous +1.5%)
Imports (USD) (previous 266.58B)
Imports, M/M% (previous +1.5%)
9:45 AM ET. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
10:00 AM ET. October Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories & Orders (M3)
Total Orders, M/M% (previous +0.7%)
Orders, Ex-Defense, M/M% (previous +0.0%)
Orders, Ex-Transport, M/M% (previous +0.4%)
Durable Goods, M/M% (previous +0.8%)
Durable Goods, M/M% (previous +0.7%)
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 3054B)
Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous -59B)
12:00 PM ET. November Monthly U.S. Retail Chain Store Sales Index
4:30 PM ET. Money Stock Measures
4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings
4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings
Friday, December 7, 2018
8:30 AM ET. November U.S. Employment Report
Non-Farm Payrolls (previous +250K)
Unemployment Rate (previous 3.7%)
Avg Hourly Earnings (USD) (previous 27.30)
Avg Hourly Earnings-Net Chg (USD) (previous +0.05)
Avg Hourly Earnings, M/M% (previous +0.18%)
Avg Hourly Earnings, Y/Y% (previous +3.1%)
Overall Workweek (previous 34.5)
Overall Workweek Net Chg (previous +0.1)
Government Payrolls (previous +4K)
Private Payroll (previous +246K)
Participation Rate (previous 62.9%)
Non-Farm Payrolls Bench Net Chg
10:00 AM ET. December University of Michigan Survey of Consumers – preliminary
Mid-Mo Sentiment (previous 98.3)
Mid-Mo Expectations (previous 88.7)
Mid-Mo Current Idx (previous 113.2)
10:00 AM ET. October Monthly Wholesale Trade
Inventories, M/M% (previous +0.4%)
The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=indexes"
The STOCK INDEXES:The December NASDAQ 100 was lower overnight following Monday's rally but low-range close as it will likely try to fill yesterday's gap crossing at 6995.00.Stochastics and the RSI are becoming overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off November's low, November's high crossing at 7231.00 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 6814.90 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 7114.57. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 7231.00. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 6814.90. Second support is November's low crossing at 6449.50.
The December S&P 500 was lower overnight as the index consolidated some of Monday's gains but remains above the 50-day moving average crossing at 2771.99. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off November's low, the 75% retracement level of the September-October-decline crossing at 2861.07 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 2708.71 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.First resistance is November's high crossing at 2817.00. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the September-October-decline crossing at 2861.07. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 2708.71. Second support is November's low crossing at 2633.00.
INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"
INTEREST RATES: March T-bonds were higher overnight as it extends the rally off November's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off November's low, the 75% retracement level of the August-October-decline crossing at 142-05 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 138-23 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 141-23. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the August-October-decline crossing at 142-05. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 139-24. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 138-23.
March T-notes was higher overnight as it extends the rally off November's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off November's low, the 87% retracement level of the August-October-decline crossing at 120.032 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 118.249 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 87% retracement level of the August-October-decline crossing at 120.032. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 120.170. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 119.101. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 118.250.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
January crude oil was higher overnight as it extends the rally off the 87% retracement level of the 2017-2018-rally crossing at 49.96. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 55.40 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If January renews the decline off October's high, the June-2017 low crossing at 46.00 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 55.40. Second resistance is the November 16th reaction high crossing at 58.16. First support is the 87% retracement level of the 2017-2018-rally crossing at 49.96. Second support is the June-2017 low crossing at 46.00.
January heating oil was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off October's high. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 200.69 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. If January resumes the decline off October's high, the 75% retracement level of the 2017-2018-rally crossing at 173.08 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 200.69. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 219.45. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 178.37. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2017-2018-rally crossing at 173.08.
January unleaded gas was higher overnight as it extends the rebound off last-Thursday's low. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that a short-term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 151.02 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted.If January resumes the decline off October's high, the June-2017 low crossing at 129.88 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 151.02. Second resistance is the November 16th reaction high crossing at 159.94. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 135.41. Second support is the June-2017 low crossing at 129.88.
January Henry natural gas was steady to slightly higher overnight as it continues to form a symmetrical triangle. The low-range late-overnight trade leaves the door open for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. A breakout in either direction of the symmetrical triangle will point the direction of the next trending move. If January resumes the rally off September's low, the 25% retracement level of the 2008-2016-decline crossing at 5.336 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.232 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is November's high crossing at 4.964. Second resistance is the 25% retracement level of 2008-2016-decline crossing at 5.336. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.232. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.684.
CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"
CURRENCIES:The March Dollar was lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 95.46 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March resumes this year's rally, weekly resistance crossing at 97.83 is the next upside target. First resistance is November's high crossing at 96.93. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 97.83. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 95.46. Second support is November's low crossing at 94.91.
The March Euro was higher in late-overnight trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. If March resumes the decline off September's high, the 87% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 111.94 is the next downside target. If March renews the rally off November's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 115.86 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 115.86. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 116.45. First support is November's low crossing at 113.54. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 111.94.
The March British Pound was higher overnight. The high-range trade in the overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session beings trading.Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off November's high, the 87% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 1.2665 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2946 would temper the bearish outlook. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2946. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3055. First support is Monday's low crossing at 1.2772. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 1.2665.
The March Swiss Franc was higher overnight while extending the trading range of the past two-weeks. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0188 would open the door for additional gains near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0118 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0188. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1.0291. First support is November's low crossing at 1.0018. Second support is weekly support crossing at 0.9833.
The March Canadian Dollar was higher in late-overnight trading as it extends the rally off November's low. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off November's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 76.55 is the next upside target.If March renews the decline off October's high, the May-2017 low crossing at 73.67 is the next downside target. First resistance is the November 16th reaction high crossing at 76.33. Second resistance is the 50-day crossing at 76.55. First support is November's low crossing at 75.04. Second support is weekly support crossing at 73.67.
The March Japanese Yen was higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above November's high crossing at 0.0899 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted while opening the door for additional gains near-term. If March renews the decline off October's high, the January-2016 low crossing at 0.0877 is the next downside target. First resistance is November's high crossing at 0.0899. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 0.0907. First support is November's low crossing at 0.0885. Second support is the January-2016 low crossing at 0.0877.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"
PRECIOUS METALS: February gold was higher overnight and is poised to test trading range resistance marked by October's high crossing at 1252.00. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If February extends the rally off November's low, October's high crossing at 1252.00 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Wednesday's low crossing at 1216.80 would open the door for a possible test of November's low crossing at 1202.40. First resistance is October's high crossing at 1252.00. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the April-August-Decline crossing at 1259.00. First support is November's low crossing at 1202.40. Second support is October's low crossing at 1192.00.
March silver was higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 14.660 would confirm that a low has been posted while opening the door for a possible test of October's high crossing at 15.055. If March resumes the decline off November's high, monthly support crossing at 13.620 is the next downside target. First resistance is October's high crossing at 15.055. Second resistance is the August 28th reaction high crossing at 15.175. First support is November's low crossing at 13.985. Second support is monthly support crossing at 13.620.
March copper was higher overnight. The mid-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off October's low, September's high crossing at 288.80 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Tuesday's low crossing at 272.50 would temper the friendly outlook. First resistance is September's high crossing at 288.80. Second resistance is the July 5th gap crossing at 295.45. First support is November's low crossing at 266.20. Second support is September's low crossing at 260.30.
GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains
March corn was lower overnight as it consolidates some of Monday's rally. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off November's low, November's high crossing at 3.90 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 3.73 1/2 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is November's high crossing at 3.90. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 3.98 3/4. First support is November's low crossing at 3.67 1/4. Second support is September's low crossing at 3.54 3/4.
March wheat was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.23 3/4 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. If March resumes the decline off October's high, the December-2017 low crossing at 4.82 1/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.23 3/4. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 5.46 1/2. First support is November's low crossing at 5.03 1/4. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2017-2018-rally crossing at 5.01.
March Kansas City Wheat closed up 6 1/4-cents at 5.06 1/2.
March Kansas City wheat closed higher on Monday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off November's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.24 1/4 is the next upside target. If March renews the decline off October's high, weekly support crossing at 4.53 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.24 1/4. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 5.33 3/4. First support is November's low crossing at 4.82 1/4. Second support is weekly support crossing at 4.53.
March Minneapolis wheat was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off November's low. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off November's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.87 1/4 is the next upside target. If March renews the decline off October's high, July's low crossing at 5.59 is the next downside target. If First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.87 1/4. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 5.93. First support is November's low crossing at 5.67 1/2. Second support is July's low crossing at 5.59.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
January soybeans was fractionally lower overnight as it consolidated some of Monday's rally. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below last-Monday's low crossing at 8.57 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If January extends this week's rally, the 50% retracement level of the May-September-decline crossing at 9.45 1/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the May-September-decline crossing at 9.17. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the May-September-decline crossing at 9.45 1/4. First support is last-Monday's low crossing at 8.57. Second support is October's low crossing at 8.44 1/2.
March soybean meal was slightly lower overnight as it consolidated some of Monday's rally. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above November's high crossing at 319.70 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. If March resumes the decline off October's high, September's low crossing at 303.40 is the next downside target. First resistance is November's high crossing at 319.70. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 327.40. First support is November's low crossing at 305.30. Second support is September's low crossing at 303.40.
March soybean oil was higher overnight as it extends the rally off November's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 28.92 would open the door for a larger-degree rally off November's low. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 28.13 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 28.92. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 30.50. First support is November's low crossing at 27.42. Second support is weekly support crossing at 26.88.
LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock
February hogs closed down $0.65 at $66.90.
February hogs closed lower on Monday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If February renews the rally off October's low, weekly resistance crossing at 72.88 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 64.50 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is November's high crossing at 69.50. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 72.88. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 64.50. Second support is November's low crossing at 59.25.
February cattle closed down $0.33 at 120.17.
February cattle closed lower on Monday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 121.26 would renew the rally off November's low. Closes below last-Thursday's low crossing at 118.57 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 121.26. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 123.90. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 118.57. Second support is November's crossing at 116.67.
January Feeder cattle closed down $0.73 at $144.50.
January Feeder cattle closed lower on Monday as it extends last week's decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If January extends last week's decline, November's low crossing at 142.67 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 147.31 are needed to renew the rally off November's low. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 149.87. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 152.43. First support is today's low crossing at 144.30. Second support is November's low crossing at 142.67.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
March coffee closed slightly higher on Monday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off October's high, the reaction low crossing at 10.45 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 11.54 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.
March cocoa closed slightly higher on Monday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 22.21 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews the decline off November's high, the reaction low crossing at 20.94 is the next downside target.
March sugar closed slightly higher on Monday. The mid-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off November's low, the reaction high crossing at 13.54 is the next upside target. If March renews the decline off October's high, the reaction low crossing at 11.91 is the next downside target.
March cotton gapped up and closed higher on Monday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends today's rally, September's high crossing at 84.22 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 78.44 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.
Thanks tallpine!