Tariff Delay
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Started by jaguar - Dec. 1, 2018, 11:01 p.m.

US and China agreed to delay additional tariffs for 90 days.  Bullish commodities????? 

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By metmike - Dec. 1, 2018, 11:12 p.m.
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Great question jaguar and best post in awhile here by anybody.


The verbiage in the article below sounds extraordinarily bullish for some commodities, especially beans.


U.S., China agree trade war ceasefire after Trump, Xi summit

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-g20-argentina/us-china-agree-trade-war-ceasefire-after-trump-xi-summit-idUSKCN1O031C


“China will agree to purchase a not yet agreed upon, but very substantial, amount of agricultural, energy, industrial, and other product from the United States to reduce the trade imbalance between our two countries,” it said. 

“China has agreed to start purchasing agricultural product from our farmers immediately.” 

By metmike - Dec. 1, 2018, 11:15 p.m.
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I didn't realize that natural gas was involved until searching for news about this topic just now. Probably not a  price determining factor but not sure. 


China's tariff on US natural gas delays Louisiana LNG project

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/30/chinas-tariff-on-us-natural-gas-delays-louisiana-lng-project.html

China slapped a 10 percent tariff on U.S. liquefied natural gas, retaliating against the Trump administration for taxing Chinese imports.

By wglassfo - Dec. 2, 2018, 5:24 a.m.
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So what did Trump get from the agreement

Increased sales to china to balance trade. Big deal, nobody said it would be even stevens. How do you enforce such an agreement??? Tariffs give us a load of pain and end up not getting much of anything, in return as seen in the recent agreement.. We don't even have any guarantee that we will sell our piles of soybean stored outside on dirt. and subject to quality issues. Many beans will rot in storage. Energy?? How much??

China buys what they want and need for domestic needs which puts them in the drivers seat to pick and choose what purchases they will buy, according to what they decide their domestic needs may be. We can't sell cars to china if the consumer doesn't want to buy our big gas guzzlers. Most of china rides a motor bike with the whole family on board. Why buy a car, if they can't afford to buy. Or mass transit works for many. So why do we want a barrier removed for car sales when we won't sell very many any way. Have you visited china. They can't allow everybody to buy a car. Too many people and cars, so motor bikes, mass transit  and bicycles work best.

They needed energy, food, soybeans for domestic consumption. We all knew that much.

Trump has no control over amounts of anything, sold to china except a vague agreement for more purchases

Will this result in many jobs for blue collar unskilled americian assembly line workers. MAGA???

I don't think so. We can't compete on a cost basis/selling price for the finished product.

We have become a high priced producer of most anything china or the world wants and is available from other sources. So how much and what will china buy from us to balance the trade gap.

Trump simply did not have the leverage he needed, considering our cost to produce much of anything.

The tech industry is hard to monitor, American people give the tech away for free when they set up shop to produce in china. Also: much of americian tech is old and china is ahead in much of new technology, so what will we need to  protect in say 5-10 yrs??

Chalk this up to a china win, when all is said and done

I can't wait to here the PR spin on this one


By Jim_M - Dec. 2, 2018, 6 a.m.
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Sell the surge.....if there is one.  The bottom line, this is a continuation of talks.  Nothing was resolved.

By joj - Dec. 2, 2018, 8:55 a.m.
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It is bullish for the stock market.  Not best case by a long shot.  I'm inclined sell the rally.  If the market closes higher on Monday than it opens tonight, that would be bullish action.  And if it closes lower on the day tomorrow that would be extremely bearish.

By TimNew - Dec. 2, 2018, 9:49 a.m.
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I expected neutral.  This is pretty close.  Definitely a profitable long play in equities and assorted grains and possibly energies. Should be a good finish to the year. I would expect a short in precious metals, particularly Gold,  but not as confident there.  Let's see how the US/China exchange matures over the next 90 days.


The equities are at the mercy of the whims of Trump.  A swing traders dream come true. Almost wish I was one of those.  

By WxFollower - Dec. 2, 2018, 10:35 a.m.
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I was wondering if this involves cotton. Anyone know?

“China will agree to purchase a not yet agreed upon, but very substantial, amount of agricultural, energy, industrial, and other product from the United States to reduce the trade imbalance between our two countries,” 

“China has agreed to start purchasing agricultural product from our farmers immediately.” 

By frey_1999 - Dec. 2, 2018, 12:36 p.m.
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The most pain will be felt by those short the front side of beans and cotton.


Stock market will be flat at WOW


Biggest winners Farmers that rely on shipping PNW









By mcfarm - Dec. 2, 2018, 1:19 p.m.
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By Jim_M - Dec. 3, 2018, 10:03 a.m.
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Beans should be up $.40?  Brandt obviously isn't impressed with the amount of beans in the world.  I picture him standing at a podium saying how bean prices should be skyrocketing and behind him is a pile of beans out of a Dr Seuss book.

By silverspiker - Dec. 3, 2018, 10:22 a.m.
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F - January soybeans went from 8-57 up to 9-23-3/4 in 2 days

By Jim_M - Dec. 3, 2018, 1:12 p.m.
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And will probably go right back to 8-57 in 2 more days.