INO Morning Market Commentary
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Started by tallpine - Nov. 29, 2018, 7:58 a.m.

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:

 



 

 

Thursday, November 29, 2018   

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims

 



 

 

                       Jobless Claims (expected 220K; previous 224K)

 



 

 

                       Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous +3K)

 



 

 

                       Continuing Claims (previous 1668000)

 



 

 

                       Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous -2K)

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales

 



 

 

                       Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 882.4K)

 



 

 

                       Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 684.4K)

 



 

 

                       Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 330.4K)

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. October Personal Income & Outlays

 



 

 

                       Personal Income, M/M% (expected +0.4%; previous +0.2%)

 



 

 

                       Consumer Spending, M/M% (expected +0.4%; previous +0.4%)

 



 

 

                       PCE Price Idx, M/M% (previous +0.1%)

 



 

 

                       PCE Price Idx, Y/Y% (previous +2.0%)

 



 

 

                       PCE Core Price Idx, M/M% (expected +0.2%; previous +0.2%)

 



 

 

                       PCE Core Price Idx, Y/Y% (expected +1.9%; previous +2.0%)

 



 

 

9:45 AM ET. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. October Metropolitan Area Employment & Unemployment

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. October Pending Home Sales Index

 



 

 

                       Pending Home Sales (previous 104.6)

 



 

 

                       Pending Home Sales Idx, M/M% (expected +0.3%; previous +0.5%)

 



 

 

                       Pending Home Sales Idx , Y/Y% (previous -1.0%)

 



 

 

10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report

 



 

 

                       Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 3113B)

 



 

 

                       Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous -134B)

 

                        

 

2:00 PM ET. SEC Closed Meeting

 



 

 

2:00 PM ET. Federal Open Market Committee meeting minutes published

 



 

 

3:00 PM ET. November Agricultural Prices

 



 

 

                       Farm Prices, M/M% (previous -1.5%)

 



 

 

4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings

 



 

 

4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings

 



 

 

4:30 PM ET. Money Stock Measures

 



 

 



 

 

Friday, November 30, 2018   

 



 

 

9:45 AM ET. November ISM-Chicago Business Survey - Chicago PMI

 



 

 

                       PMI-Adj (expected 58.0; previous 58.4)

 



 

 

Monday, December 3, 2018  

 



 

 

9:45 AM ET. November US Manufacturing PMI

 



 

 

                       PMI, Mfg (previous 55.7)

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. October Construction Spending - Construction Put in Place

 



 

 

                       New Construction (previous +0.0%)

 



 

 

                       Residential Construction

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. November ISM Manufacturing Report on Business

 



 

 

                       Manufacturing PMI (previous 57.7)

 



 

 

                       Prices Idx (previous 71.6)

 



 

 

                       Employment Idx (previous 56.8)

 



 

 

                       Inventories (previous 50.7)

 



 

 

                       New Orders Idx (previous 57.4)

 



 

 

                       Production Idx (previous 59.9)

 



 

 

11:00 AM ET. November Global Manufacturing PMI

 



 

 

                       PMI, Mfg (previous 52.1)

 



 

 

4:00 AM ET. November Domestic Auto Industry Sales

 



 

 

                       Auto Sales Annualized (previous 17.57M)

 


The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=indexes"  



The STOCK INDEXES:The December NASDAQ 100 was lower overnight as it consolidated some of Wednesday's record setting rally. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off November's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 7093.57 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 6687.65 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 6923.50. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 7093.57. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 6687.65. Second support is November's low crossing at 6449.50.



The December S&P 500 was lower overnight as it consolidated some of Wednesday's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off November's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 2781.00 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 2691.09 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 2748.00. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2781.00. First support is November's low crossing at 2633.00. Second support is October's low crossing at 2605.00.    



INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"



INTEREST RATES: December T-bonds were higher overnight as it extends the rally off November's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off November's low, the 50% retracement level of the August-October-decline crossing at 140-28 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 138-26 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the August-October-decline crossing at 140-28. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the August-October-decline crossing at 141-29. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 138-26. Second resistance is November's low crossing at 136-24.    



December T-notes was higher overnight as it renewed the rally off November's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off November's low, the 75% retracement level of the August-October-decline crossing at 119.266 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 118.232 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the August-October-decline crossing at 119.130. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the August-October-decline crossing at 119.266. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 118.232. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 118.161. 



ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""



January crude oil was slightly higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If January extends the decline off October's high, the June-2017 low crossing at 46.00 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 56.95 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 53.43. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 56.95. First support is the 87% retracement level of the 2017-2018-rally crossing at 49.96. Second support is the June-2017 low crossing at 46.00.



January heating oil was slightly lower overnight as it extends the decline off October's high. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remains neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If January extends the decline off October's high, the 75% retracement level of the 2017-2018-rally crossing at 173.08 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 205.11 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 195.04. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 205.11. First support is the overnight low crossing at 181.42. Second support is the  75% retracement level of the 2017-2018-rally crossing at 173.08.



January unleaded gas was slightly higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible near-term. If January extends the decline off October's high, the June-2017 low crossing at 129.88 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 154.78 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted.First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 146.38. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 154.78. First support is the overnight low crossing at 135.41. Second support is the June-2017 low crossing at 129.88.



January Henry natural gas was lower overnight as it consolidates some of Wednesday's rally. The low-range late-overnight trade leaves the door open for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If January resumes the rally off September's low, the 25% retracement level of the 2008-2016-decline crossing at 5.336 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.069 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is November's high crossing at 4.964. Second resistance is the 25% retracement level of 2008-2016-decline crossing at 5.336. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.069. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.603.    



CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"



CURRENCIES:The December Dollar was lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December renews the decline off November's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 95.71 is the next downside target. If December resumes this year's rally, weekly resistance crossing at 97.83 is the next upside target. First resistance is November's high crossing at 97.41. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 97.83. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at 95.93. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 95.84.    



The December Euro was higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December renews the rally off November's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 115.13 is the next upside target. If December resumes the decline off September's high, the 87% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 113.54 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 115.13. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 115.45. First support is November's low crossing at 112.46. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 111.15.  



The December British Pound was lower overnight. The low-range trade in the overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session beings trading.Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off November's high, the 87% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 1.2632 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2921 would temper the bearish outlook. First resistance is November's high crossing at 1.3198. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 1.3297. First support is October's low crossing at 1.2722. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 1.2632.



The December Swiss Franc was lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December renews November's rally, the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0116 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0015 would confirm that the rally off November's low has ended. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0116. First support is November's low crossing at 0.9902. Second support is weekly support crossing at 0.9833. 



The December Canadian Dollar was steady to slightly higher in late-overnight trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 75.80 would temper the bearish outlook. If December resumes the decline off October's high, June's low crossing at 75.00 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 75.80. Second resistance is the 50-day crossing at 76.52. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 74.87. Second support is weekly support crossing at 74.80.



The December Japanese Yen was higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above last-Tuesday's high crossing at 0.0892 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December extends the decline off October's high, the January-2016 low crossing at 0.0872 is the next downside target. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at 0.0892. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 0.0901. First support is November's low crossing at 0.0877. Second support is the January-2016 low crossing at 0.0872.  



PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"



PRECIOUS METALS: February gold was higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If February extends the rally off November's low, October's high crossing at 1252.00 is the next upside target. If February resumes the decline off October's high, November's low crossing at 1202.40 is the next downside target. First resistance is October's high crossing at 1252.00. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the April-August-Decline crossing at 1259.00. First support is November's low crossing at 1202.40. Second support is October's low crossing at 1192.00.



March silver was slightly lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above last-Wednesday's high crossing at 14.660 would confirm that a low has been posted. If March resumes this month's decline, monthly support crossing at 13.620 is the next downside target. First resistance is October's high crossing at 15.055. Second resistance is the August 28th reaction high crossing at 15.175. First support is November's low crossing at 13.985. Second support is monthly support crossing at 13.620. 



March copper was slightly lower overnight. The mid-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March renews the rally off October's low, September's high crossing at 288.80 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 276.11 would temper the friendly outlook. First resistance is September's high crossing at 288.80. Second resistance is the July 5th gap crossing at 295.45. First support is November's low crossing at 266.20. Second support is September's low crossing at 260.30.



GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains



March corn was steady to fractionally lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. If March extends the decline off November's high, the reaction low crossing at 3.66 3/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.77 1/2 would confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 3.83. Second resistance is the November 8th high crossing at 3.90. First support is the reaction low crossing at 3.66 3/4. Second support is September's low crossing at 3.54 3/4.



March wheat was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.25 1/4 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. If March resumes the decline off October's high, the December-2017 low crossing at 4.82 1/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.14 3/4. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.25 1/4. First support is November's low crossing at 5.03 1/4. Second support is the December-2017 low crossing at 4.82 1/4.         



March Kansas City Wheat closed up 8 3/4-cents at 4.92 1/4. 



March Kansas City wheat closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off October's high, weekly support crossing at 4.53 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.08 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.08. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.27 1/4. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 4.82 1/4. Second support is weekly support crossing at 4.53. 



March Minneapolis wheat was steady to fractionally higher overnight. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off October's high, July's low crossing at 5.59 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.78 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.78. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.88 1/2. First support is November's low crossing at 5.68 1/2. Second support is July's low crossing at 5.59. 



SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "



January soybeans closed lower overnight as it consolidated some of Wednesday's rally. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If January extends Wednesday's rally, the 38% retracement level of the May-September-decline crossing at 9.17 is the next upside target. Closes below Monday's low crossing at 8.57 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is October's high crossing at 9.06 1/4. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the May-September-decline crossing at 9.17. First support is October's low crossing at 8.44 1/2. Second support is September's low crossing at 8.26 1/4.  



March soybean meal closed lower overnight while extending a three-month old trading range. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the November 16th reaction high crossing at 317.00 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. If March resumes the decline off October's high, September's low crossing at 303.40 is the next downside target. First resistance is October's high crossing at 327.40. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the May-September-decline crossing at 330. 30. First support is Monday's low crossing at 305.30. Second support is September's low crossing at 303.40. 



March soybean oil was steady to slightly lower overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 28.18 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. If March resumes the decline off October's high, weekly support crossing at 26.88 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 28.18. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 28.94. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 27.42. Second support is weekly support crossing at 26.88. 



LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock 



February hogs closed down $0.55 at $64.50. 



February hogs closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 64.16 confirms that a short-term top has been posted. If February renews the rally off October's low, weekly resistance crossing at 72.88 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 69.50. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 72.88. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 64.16. Second support is November's low crossing at 59.25.    



February cattle closed down $0.05 at 120.55. 



February cattle closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 121.35 would renew the rally off November's low. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 120.06 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 121.35. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 123.90. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 120.06. Second support is November's crossing at 116.67.   

 

January Feeder cattle closed down $0.73 at $147.70. 



January Feeder cattle closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 147.44 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If January renews the rally off November's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 150.43 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 150.43. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 152.43. First support is the reaction low crossing at 145.57. Second support is November's low crossing at 142.67. 



FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food 



March coffee closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 11.63 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March extends the decline off October's high, the reaction low crossing at 10.45 is the next downside target.            



March cocoa closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off November's high, the reaction low crossing at 20.94 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 22.34 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.    



March sugar closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 12.81 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March extends the decline off October's high, the reaction low crossing at 11.91 is the next downside target.  



March cotton closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 79.39 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March resumes decline off November's high, October's low crossing at 76.50 is the next downside target.   

Comments
By metmike - Nov. 29, 2018, 10:12 a.m.
Like Reply

Thanks tallpine!