KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Tuesday, November 27, 2018
7:45 AM ET. The Retail Economist/Goldman Sachs Weekly Chain Store Sales Index
Chain Store Sales, W/W% (previous +2.0%)
Chain Store Sales, M/M% (previous +2.6%)
8:55 AM ET. Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, M/M% (previous +0.2%)
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, Y/Y% (previous +6.2%)
Latest Wk, Y/Y% (previous +6.2%)
9:00 AM ET. September S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices
10-City Idx, M/M% (previous +0%)
10-City Idx, Y/Y% (previous +5.1%)
20-City Idx, M/M% (previous +0%)
20-City Idx, Y/Y% (previous +5.5%)
National Idx, M/M% (previous +0.2%)
National Idx, Y/Y% (previous +5.8%)
9:00 AM ET. 3rd Quarter U.S. Quarterly House Price Index
9:00 AM ET. September U.S. Monthly House Price Index
10:00 AM ET. November Consumer Confidence Index
Cons Conf Idx (expected 135.8; previous 137.9)
Expectation Idx (previous 114.6)
Present Situation Idx (previous 172.8)
4:30 PM ET. API Weekly Statistical Bulletin
Crude Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -1.5M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +0.7M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -1.8M)
Wednesday, November 28, 2018
7:00 AM ET. MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey
Composite Idx (previous 316.4)
Composite Idx, W/W% (previous -0.1%)
Purchase Idx-SA (previous 227.7)
Purchase Idx-SA, W/W% (previous +3.1%)
Refinance Idx (previous 783.7)
Refinance Idx, W/W% (previous -5.0%)
8:30 AM ET. October Advance Economic Indicators Report
8:30 AM ET. 3rd Quarter Preliminary Corporate Profits
8:30 AM ET. 3rd Quarter 2nd estimate GDP
Annual Rate, Q/Q% (expected +3.5%; previous +3.5%)
Chain-Weighted Price Idx, Q/Q% (expected +1.7%; previous +1.7%)
Corporate Profits, Q/Q% (previous +3.3%)
PCE Price Idx, Q/Q% (previous +1.6%)
Purchase Price Idx, Q/Q% (previous +1.7%)
Real Final Sales, Q/Q% (previous +1.4%)
Core PCE Price Idx, Q/Q% (previous +1.6%)
Consumer Spending, Q/Q% (previous +4.0%)
10:00 AM ET. October New Residential Sales
New Home Sales (expected 575K; previous 553K)
New Home Sales, M/M% (expected +4.0%; previous -5.5%)
New Home Sales Months Supply (previous 7.1)
10:00 AM ET. November Richmond Fed Business Activity Survey
Mfg Idx (previous 15)
Shipments Idx (previous 7)
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Crude Oil Stocks (Bbl) (previous 446.908M)
Crude Oil Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +4.851M)
Gasoline Stocks (Bbl) (previous 225.315M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -1.295M)
Distillate Stocks (Bbl) (previous 119.191M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -0.077M)
Refinery Usage (previous 92.7%)
Total Prod Supplied (Bbl/day) (previous 21.264M)
Total Prod Supplied, Net Chg (Bbl/day) (previous -1.123M)
The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=indexes"
The STOCK INDEXES:The December NASDAQ 100 was steady to slightly higher overnight.Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. If December extends the decline off November's high, February's low crossing at 6385.25 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 6834.88 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 6834.88. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 7119.02. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at 6449.50. Second support is February's low crossing at 6385.25.
The December S&P 500 was steady to slightly lower overnight.Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends this month's decline, April's low crossing at 2583.60 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 2716.46 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2716.46. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2787.66. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at 2633.00. Second support is April's low crossing at 2583.60.
INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"
INTEREST RATES: December T-bonds were slightly lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off November's low, the 50% retracement level of the August-October-decline crossing at 140-28 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 138-21 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 140-17. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the August-October-decline crossing at 140-28. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 138-21. Second resistance is November's low crossing at 136-24.
December T-notes was lower in overnight trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off November's low, the 75% retracement level of the August-October-decline crossing at 119.266 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 118.152 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the August-October-decline crossing at 119.130. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the August-October-decline crossing at 119.266. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 118.152. Second support is November's low crossing at 117.225.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
January crude oil was slightly lower overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If January extends the decline off October's high, the June-2017 low crossing at 46.00 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 58.45 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 54.44. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 58.45. First support is the 87% retracement level of the 2017-2018-rally crossing at 49.96. Second support is the June-2017 low crossing at 46.00.
January heating oil was slightly lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remains neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If January extends the decline off October's high, the 75% retracement level of the 2017-2018-rally crossing at 173.08 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 209.20 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 199.63. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 209.20. First support is the 62% retracement level of the 2017-2018-rally crossing at 185.86. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2017-2018-rally crossing at 173.08.
January unleaded gas was slightly lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible near-term. If January extends the decline off October's high, the June-2017 low crossing at 129.88 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 158.70 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted.First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 149.32. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 158.70. First support is the 87% retracement level of the 2017-2018-decline crossing at 140.90. Second support is the June-2017 low crossing at 129.88.
January Henry natural gas was lower overnight. The high-range late-overnight trade leaves the door open for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.937 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If January resumes the rally off September's low, the 25% retracement level of the 2008-2016-decline crossing at 5.336 is the next upside target. First resistance is November's high crossing at 4.964. Second resistance is the 25% retracement level of 2008-2016-decline crossing at 5.336. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.937. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.540.
CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"
CURRENCIES:The December Dollar was higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December resumes this year's rally, weekly resistance crossing at 97.83 is the next upside target. If December renews the decline off November's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 95.71 is the next downside target. First resistance is November's high crossing at 97.41. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 97.83. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at 95.93. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 95.71.
The December Euro was lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December resumes the decline off September's high, the 87% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 113.54 is the next downside target. If December renews the rally off November's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 115.28 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 115.28. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 115.45. First support is November's low crossing at 112.46. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 111.15.
The December British Pound was lower overnight. The low-range trade in the overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session beings trading.Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off November's high, October's low crossing at 1.2722 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2917 would temper the bearish outlook. First resistance is November's high crossing at 1.3198. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 1.3297. First support is October's low crossing at 1.2722. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 1.2632.
The December Swiss Franc was lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0005 would confirm that the rally off November's low has ended. If December renews November's rally, the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0131 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0131. First support is November's low crossing at 0.9902. Second support is weekly support crossing at 0.9833.
The December Canadian Dollar was steady to slightly higher in late-overnight trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December resumes the decline off October's high, June's low crossing at 75.00 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving averagecrossing at 75.89 would temper the bearish outlook. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 75.89. Second resistance is the 50-day crossing at 76.61. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at 75.11. Second support is June's low crossing at 75.00.
The December Japanese Yen was steady to slightly lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off October's high, the January-2016 low crossing at 0.0872 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Tuesday's high crossing at 0.0892 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at 0.0892. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 0.0901. First support is November's low crossing at 0.0877. Second support is the January-2016 low crossing at 0.0872.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"
PRECIOUS METALS: December gold was slightly higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off November's low, October's high crossing at 1246.00 is the next upside target. If December resumes the decline off October's high, October's low crossing at 1186.00 is the next downside target. First resistance is October's high crossing at 1246.00. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the April-August-Decline crossing at 1251.30. First support is November's low crossing at 1196.60. Second support is October's low crossing at 1186.00.
December silver was slightly higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes above last-Wednesday's high crossing at 14.540 would confirm that a low has been posted. If December resumes this month's decline, monthly support crossing at 13.620 is the next downside target. First resistance is October's high crossing at 14.950. Second resistance is the August 28th reaction high crossing at 15.070. First support is November's low crossing at 13.860. Second support is monthly support crossing at 13.620.
December copper was lower overnight. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 273.32 would temper the friendly outlook. If December renews the rally off October's low, September's high crossing at 287.10 is the next upside target. First resistance is September's high crossing at 287.10. Second resistance is the July 5th gap crossing at 293.10. First support is October's low crossing at 264.25. Second support is September's low crossing at 258.00.
GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains
March corn was higher overnight as it consolidated some of Monday's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. If March extends the decline off November's high, the reaction low crossing at 3.66 3/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.77 1/4 would confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 3.83. Second resistance is the November 8th high crossing at 3.90. First support is the reaction low crossing at 3.66 3/4. Second support is September's low crossing at 3.54 3/4.
March wheat was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.26 1/2 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. If March resumes the decline off October's high, the December-2017 low crossing at 4.82 1/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.15 3/4. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.26 1/2. First support is November's low crossing at 5.03 1/4. Second support is the December-2017 low crossing at 4.82 1/4.
March Kansas City Wheat closed up 3 3/4-cents at 4.89 3/4.
March Kansas City wheat closed higher on Monday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off October's high, weekly support crossing at 4.53 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.11 3/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.11 3/4. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.29 1/4. First support is Monday's low crossing at 4.84 3/4. Second support is weekly support crossing at 4.53.
March Minneapolis wheat was steady to fractionally higher overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off October's high, July's low crossing at 5.59 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.79 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.79. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.89 3/4. First support is November's low crossing at 5.68 1/2. Second support is July's low crossing at 5.59.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
January soybeans closed higher overnight as it consolidated some of Monday's decline. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If January extends Monday's decline, October's low crossing at 8.44 1/2 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 8.79 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is October's high crossing at 9.06 1/4. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the May-September-decline crossing at 9.17. First support is October's low crossing at 8.44 1/2. Second support is September's low crossing at 8.26 1/4.
March soybean meal closed slightly higher overnight while extending a two and a half month old trading range. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March resumes the decline off October's high, September's low crossing at 303.40 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 312.80 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is October's high crossing at 327.40. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the May-September-decline crossing at 330. 30. First support is Monday's low crossing at 305.30. Second support is September's low crossing at 303.40.
March soybean oil was higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 28.20 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. If March extends the decline off October's high, weekly support crossing at 26.88 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 28.20. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 28.93. First support is the overnight low crossing at 27.42. Second support is weekly support crossing at 26.88.
Thanks tallpine!