High Temperatures today and tomorrow.

Mild West and Southeast. Cold Plains to Great Lakes. Not as cold as last week though.

Highs for days 3-7:

Extreme cold Great Lakes to Northeast initially.   Moderating as the week goes on. New cold front next weekend Rockies/N.Plains, then Midwest?

How do these days 3-7 temperatures compare to average at this time of year?

 
Very cold anomalies Northeast. Much milder in the Plains and most of the country this week!.

Low Temperature Departures:

Surface features for the same 3-7 day period:

 Quiet with Arctic High Pressure early(very cold in the Northeast), then moderation mid/late this week as we see some action at the end of the week(new weather maker).

  Pattern change to much wetter late in week 1!

The latest precip forecasts for the next week are below.

Below normal most places..............picks up late in the week, especially south and east.

Day 1 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_94qwbg.gif?1526306199054

Day 2 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_98qwbg.gif?1528293750112

Day 3 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_99qwbg.gif?1528293842764

Days 4-5 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162

 Days 6-7 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/97ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162

7 Day Total precipitation below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.govcdx /qpf/p168i.gif?1530796126

Current Dew Points

Dry Arctic air across the country has receded north. New surge Plains/Midwest right now.

Latest radar loop

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/radar_tab.php

Go to: Most Recent Image

Precipitation the past 24 hours

You can go to this link to see precipitation totals from recent time periods:

https://water.weather.gov/precip/

                              Go to precipitation, then scroll down to pick a time frame. Hit states to get the borders to see locations better. Under products, you can hit "observed" or "Percent of normal"      

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     Soil moisture anomaly:

Still  wet on this particular metric in an enormous area.  DRYING OUT in the Cornbelt for a bit longer(but very chilly air will mean drying rates will be minimal).

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Precipitation compared to average for the last 7, 14, 30 and 60 days. 

Usually not updated for previous day until late the next day.

https://www.atmos.illinois.edu/~snodgrss/Ag_Wx.html

The top map is the Canadian ensemble average, the maps below are the individual members that make up the average

End of week 2....................0Z ensembles from Sunday.

Cold on most members but where will the cold air from Canada be aimed.........farther west?

Pronounced upper level troughing and widespread above average precip. Location of trough will determine location of the cold. The likelihood of a pattern change increases the uncertainty.

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Each member is like the parent, Canadian model operational model.......with a slight tweek/variation in parameters. Since we know the equations to represent the physics of the atmosphere in the models are not perfect, its useful to vary some of the equations that are uncertain(can make a difference) to see if it effects the outcome and how.

The average of all these variations(ensembles) often yields a better tool for forecasting. It's always more consistent. The individual operational model, like each individual ensemble member can vary greatly from run to run.........and represent an extreme end of the spectrum at times. The ensemble average of all the members, because it averages the extremes.............from opposite ends of the spectrum.........changes much less from run to run.

360h GZ 500 forecast valid on Dec 03, 2018 00 UTC

0Z GFS Ensembles

Just too much disparity and uncertainty to use these maps to try to have an assessment that might have any skill.

Latest, updated graph/forecast for AO and NAO here, including an explanation of how to interpret them. 

Sunday's comment: For late week 2 here on Sunday. Huge disparity and change from recent solutions.

The  AO was in uncharted low territory for while last week.........with extreme cold indicated but now is shown to just temporarily spike down(not quite as extreme) and bouncing back towards zero but still negative and decent cold indicator.

The NAO was also strongly negative last week and is showing the same tendency, a spike lower but bouncing back towards zero...........still  remaining a bit negative at the end of week 2, suggesting cold.

The day to day changes are big enough to generate low confidence.

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/15793/

National Weather Service 6-10 day, 8-14 day outlooks.

 Updated early this afternoon.

Turning much wetter!

Temperature Probability

Precipitation Probability

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Temperature Probability