Happy November 17th to you! Just another day? Do something nice for somebody today! Seriously, don't just think about it for a moment......do it now.
Scroll down and enjoy the latest comprehensive weather to the max. There will be some areas with Winter weather and a great deal of cold.
Here are the latest hazards across the country. Green is flooding. Brown is wind, Gray is fog. Reddish is a red flag advisory. Purple/Pink/blue is cold/Winter weather.
See the rest at the link below.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/ Go to "hazards"
Winter Weather
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/winter_wx.shtml
Snowfall forecast the next 3 days:
| << Previous |
Forecast Hour: 084
Image URL: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/nam/12/nam_namer_084_snodpth_chng.gif
| Low Temperatures Tomorrow Morning |
High Temperatures today and tomorrow.
Widespread cold continues to recede, southern and eastern areas as a new blast northcentral pushes southeast.
Highs for days 3-7:
Extreme cold Great Lakes to Northeast initially. Moderating as the week goes on. New cold front next weekend?
How do these days 3-7 temperatures compare to average at this time of year?
Coldest anomalies Northeast. Much milder in the Plains.
Low Temperature Departures:
Surface features for the same 3-7 day period:
Quiet with Arctic High Pressure early, then moderation mid/late week as we see some action at the end of the week(new weather maker).
Pattern change to much wetter late in week 1!
The latest precip forecasts for the next week are below.
Below normal most places..............picks up late in the week.
Day 1 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_94qwbg.gif?1526306199054
Day 2 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_98qwbg.gif?1528293750112
Day 3 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_99qwbg.gif?1528293842764
Days 4-5 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162
Days 6-7 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/97ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162
7 Day Total precipitation below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.govcdx /qpf/p168i.gif?1530796126
Current Dew Points
Dry Arctic air across the country has receded north. New surge N.Plains/Midwest.
Latest radar loop
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/radar_tab.php
| Full resolution version loop (3400x1700 pixels - 2.2mb) |
Go to: Most Recent Image
Precipitation the past 24 hours
You can go to this link to see precipitation totals from recent time periods:
https://water.weather.gov/precip/
Go to precipitation, then scroll down to pick a time frame. Hit states to get the borders to see locations better. Under products, you can hit "observed" or "Percent of normal"
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Soil moisture anomaly:
Still wet on this particular metric in an enormous area. DRYING OUT in the Cornbelt for a bit longer(but very chilly air will mean drying rates will be minimal).
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Precipitation compared to average for the last 7, 14, 30 and 60 days.
Usually not updated for previous day until late the next day.
https://www.atmos.illinois.edu/~snodgrss/Ag_Wx.html
The top map is the Canadian ensemble average, the maps below are the individual members that make up the average
End of week 2....................0Z ensembles from Thursday. To provide you with the progression of the past 3 days, read below.
From Saturday: Several members re instate cross polar flow(that brought down the current cold and have a pattern favorable for it to cross Canada.
Will it make is farther south?
From Sunday: Whoa nelly. A few members bring incredibly cold air across Canada into the US.........but the Canadian ensembles is much colder than all the other models because of this. Giant disparity in solutions of individual members and with different models(Euro ensembles are MUCH milder than this)
From Monday: Cross polar flow along with a southward extension of a deep polar vortex, that creates a strongly negative AO, in tandem with a -NAO makes these solutions look potentially very cold.........but still great uncertainty.
From Tuesday: Looks similar to Monday..........COLD!
From Wednesday/yesterday: Still extremely cold. Cross Polar flow and far southward extention of the Polar Vortex. This model has led the way in advertising the major pattern change for this period(before the other models)
Thursday: Not nearly as cold...........but still pretty cold.
Friday: Huge disparity but colder again. Several members take the polar vortex very far south with an extreme solution with an extreme negative Arctic Oscillation.
Saturday: Much milder, zonal, west to east flow.
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Each member is like the parent, Canadian model operational model.......with a slight tweek/variation in parameters. Since we know the equations to represent the physics of the atmosphere in the models are not perfect, its useful to vary some of the equations that are uncertain(can make a difference) to see if it effects the outcome and how.
The average of all these variations(ensembles) often yields a better tool for forecasting. It's always more consistent. The individual operational model, like each individual ensemble member can vary greatly from run to run.........and represent an extreme end of the spectrum at times. The ensemble average of all the members, because it averages the extremes.............from opposite ends of the spectrum.........changes much less from run to run.
360h GZ 500 forecast valid on Dec 2, 2018 00UTC
0Z GFS Ensembles
More southern stream today and trough in the west(to Plains), with upper level ridging in the far southeast. Pretty good agreement on this............which would be a wet pattern.
A minority of members have the northern stream as a big player but there is cold air that makes it into the trough.
Latest, updated graph/forecast for AO and NAO here, including an explanation of how to interpret them.
Sunday's comment: For late week 2 here on Sunday. Huge 1 day change!!!
Monday: the change continues in the same cold direction.
Both the AO and NAO are MUCH more negative and with a MUCH greater spread. A few members are extreme.
They strongly favor very cold air moving into the US.
Tuesday's update: Following the same path of the previous 2 days. However, there is a tremendous spread in this indices at 2 weeks. That means uncertainty.
Wednesday: Extremely negative and cold!
Thursday: Not as extremely negative but still a great deal of spread
Friday: WOW on the -AO. Some members have it the most extreme I've ever seen it but a huge disparity. If the extreme members are correct, the polar vortex will shift bodily, close to the US. NAO is also strongly negative.
This suggests extreme cold and that the coldest model solutions might have the right idea...........but some models have been mild for this period too. Massive uncertainty.
Just like weather maps having less skill in the later periods, the same is the case with the AO/NAO.
Saturday: Not as extreme as Friday but still negative and cold with tremendous spread.
National Weather Service 6-10 day, 8-14 day outlooks.
Updated early this afternoon.
Turning much wetter!
Temperature Probability | |
Precipitation Probability | |
| the 8-14 day outlooks ArchivesAnalogsLines-Only FormatGIS Data | |
Temperature Probability | |
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GFS op and Euro suite models through 12Z today look as cold or colder than the colder ones of yesterday at 12Z on a day by day comparison for the 2 week period. Also, the GEFS baed -AO and -NAO still look just about as potent.
