oil cycles - 10 yr & 7 yr
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Started by bear - Nov. 16, 2018, midnight

the last couple decades oil seems to have a couple cycles that may be important here.

there is a 10 yr cycle,... it had a nice low in 98,  and late 08,  and now again in 18 ...

but then there also seems to be a 7 year cycle.  there is a major low in 2015, and 2008, and 2002,...if this 7 yr cycle holds then we should see the next major low in oil around 2022.  

2022 would fit with the 10 yr recession cycle.  there is often a recession in the first couple years of each decade. ... for example... 2001 (2002), 1991, 1981-1982, 1971,... and 1942, 1932, 1921  

the yield curve is not inverted right now, so we should not see a recession in 2019 (this could change if we suddenly see a fast drop in the long bond yield).  

I have been expecting a recession somewhere between 2020 and 2022 (more like 2021,2022). 

yes, this is a strange call, since the dow has recently be more overpriced (by some measures), than at any time in history.   market valuation should suggest a crash starting real soon,  and lasting about 2-3 yrs. maybe we will stay overpriced for a while.

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