Weather Thursday
12 responses | 0 likes
Started by metmike - Nov. 15, 2018, 10:26 a.m.

Happy November 15th to you!  Just another day? Do something nice for somebody today! Seriously, don't just think about it for a moment......do it now.

 Scroll down and  enjoy the latest comprehensive weather to the max. There will be some areas with Winter weather and a great deal of  cold.  


Here are the latest hazards across the country.   Green is flooding. Brown is wind, Gray is fog.  Reddish is a red flag advisory. Purple/Pink/blue is cold/Winter weather.

See the rest at the link below.

                          https://www.spc.noaa.gov/  Go to "hazards"                                                                                     

                   


Winter Weather

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/winter_wx.shtml


Image result for image of snowflakes





Low Temperatures Tomorrow Morning


LOOK AT THE COLD!                                          

             

Comments
By metmike - Nov. 15, 2018, 10:28 a.m.
Like Reply

High Temperatures today and tomorrow.


Widespread cold....receding!  

   

               

By metmike - Nov. 15, 2018, 10:29 a.m.
Like Reply

Total snow the next 2 days from the event(s) below


nam_namer_051_snodpth_chng.gif

By metmike - Nov. 15, 2018, 10:47 a.m.
Like Reply

Highs for days 3-7:


A new blast of cold on Friday/Saturday, N.Plains to Midwest to Northeast this weekend! Receding cold next week.


http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY3_MAX_filled.gif

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY4_MAX_filled.gifhttp://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY5_MAX_filled.gifhttp://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY6_MAX_filled.gifhttp://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY7_MAX_filled.gif

By metmike - Nov. 15, 2018, 10:47 a.m.
Like Reply

How do these days 3-7 temperatures compare to average at this time of year?

 
Mild West, Coldest anomalies Northeast.



http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/hpcmaxwbg.gif


Low Temperature Departures:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/hpcminwbg.gif

By metmike - Nov. 15, 2018, 10:48 a.m.
Like Reply

Surface features for the same 3-7 day period:


Reinforcing blast of Arctic cold on Friday/Saturday(another one early Monday.  Quiet with Arctic High Pressure next week and moderation mid week.

  https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif

                                    


By metmike - Nov. 15, 2018, 10:49 a.m.
Like Reply
By metmike - Nov. 15, 2018, 10:51 a.m.
Like Reply

Current Dew Points

 

Dry Arctic air across the country. A little bit of moisture in the Southeast.

Current Dew Points

                                    


Latest radar loop


http://www.nws.noaa.gov/radar_tab.php

Doppler Radar National Mosaic Loop

                          

Full resolution version loop (3400x1700 pixels - 2.2mb)
 

      

Central Great Lakes sector loop
Go to: Most Recent Image

Precipitation the past 24 hours


                                    


    

You can go to this link to see precipitation totals from recent time periods:


https://water.weather.gov/precip/


                              Go to precipitation, then scroll down to pick a time frame. Hit states to get the borders to see locations better. Under products, you can hit "observed" or "Percent of normal"      

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++


     Soil moisture anomaly:


Still  wet on this particular metric in an enormous area.  DRYING OUT in the Cornbelt for a long time(but very chilly air will mean drying rates will be minimal).

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Soilmst_Monitoring/Figures/daily/curr.w.anom.daily.gif


+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Precipitation compared to average for the last 7, 14, 30 and 60 days. 

Usually not updated for previous day until late the next day.

https://www.atmos.illinois.edu/~snodgrss/Ag_Wx.html

http://weather.agribleservices.com/ahps/7_day_percent.png


http://weather.agribleservices.com/ahps/14_day_percent.png

http://weather.agribleservices.com/ahps/30_day_percent.pnghttp://weather.agribleservices.com/ahps/60_day_percent.png

By metmike - Nov. 15, 2018, 10:54 a.m.
Like Reply

The top map is the Canadian ensemble average, the maps below are the individual members that make up the average


End of week 2....................0Z ensembles from Thursday. To provide you with the progression of the past 3 days, read below.

From Saturday: Several members re instate cross polar flow(that brought down the current cold and have a pattern favorable for it to cross Canada.

Will it make is farther south?


From Sunday: Whoa nelly.  A few members bring incredibly cold air across Canada into the US.........but the Canadian ensembles is much colder than all the other models because of this. Giant disparity in solutions of individual members and with different models(Euro ensembles are MUCH milder than this)


From Monday: Cross polar flow along with a southward extension of a  deep polar vortex, that creates a strongly negative AO, in tandem with a -NAO makes these solutions look potentially very cold.........but still great uncertainty.


From Tuesday: Looks similar to Monday..........COLD!

From Wednesday/yesterday: Still extremely cold. Cross Polar flow and far southward extention of the Polar Vortex. This model has led the way in advertising the major pattern change for this period(before the other models)

Thursday: Not nearly as cold...........but still pretty cold.


++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Each member is like the parent, Canadian model operational model.......with a slight tweek/variation in parameters. Since we know the equations to represent the physics of the atmosphere in the models are not perfect, its useful to vary some of the equations that are uncertain(can make a difference) to see if it effects the outcome and how.

The average of all these variations(ensembles) often yields a better tool for forecasting. It's always more consistent. The individual operational model, like each individual ensemble member can vary greatly from run to run.........and represent an extreme end of the spectrum at times. The ensemble average of all the members, because it averages the extremes.............from opposite ends of the spectrum.........changes much less from run to run.

360h GZ 500 forecast valid on Nov 30, 2018 00 UTC

GZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecast

By metmike - Nov. 15, 2018, 10:56 a.m.
Like Reply

0Z GFS Ensembles

More southern stream than the Canadian model.

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSHGT_0z/f360.gif

By metmike - Nov. 15, 2018, 10:57 a.m.
Like Reply

Latest, updated graph/forecast for AO and NAO here, including an explanation of how to interpret them. 

Sunday's comment: For late week 2 here on Sunday. Huge 1 day change!!! 

Monday: the change continues in the same cold direction.

Both the AO and NAO are MUCH more negative and with a MUCH greater spread. A few members are extreme.

They strongly favor very cold air moving into the US. 

Tuesday's update: Following the same path of the previous 2 days. However, there is a tremendous spread in this indices at 2 weeks. That means uncertainty.

Wednesday: Extremely negative and cold!

Thursday: Not as extremely negative but still  a great deal of spread


Just like weather maps having less skill in the later periods, the same is the case with the AO/NAO.


https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/15793/

By metmike - Nov. 15, 2018, 10:58 a.m.
Like Reply

National Weather Service 6-10 day, 8-14 day outlooks.


 Updated early this afternoon.




Temperature Probability

6 to 10 Day Outlook - Temperature Probability
 Precipitation Probability

  6 to 10 Day Outlook - Precipitation Probability

  

the 8-14 day outlooks
ArchivesAnalogsLines-Only FormatGIS Data

Temperature Probability

8 to 14 Day Outlook - Temperature Probability
8 to 14 Day Outlook - Precipitation Probability
By metmike - Nov. 15, 2018, 12:11 p.m.
Like Reply

Canadian ensembles have been leading the way colder earlier this week, now for the 2nd run in a row (12z)they look MUCH milder.


Edit: There is too much disparity at this distant time change and with a potential pattern change, confidence is low......but the changes since late yesterday have been milder.

Yesterday's 18z GFS was really the last bone chilling model. 

384h GZ 500 forecast valid on Dec 01, 2018 12 UTC

GZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecast