Lucky November 13th to you! Just another day? Do something nice for somebody today! Seriously, don't just think about it for a moment......do it now.
Scroll down and enjoy the latest comprehensive weather to the max. There will be some areas with Winter weather and a great deal of cold.
Here are the latest hazards across the country. Green is flooding. Brown is wind, Gray is fog. Reddish is a red flag advisory. Purple/Pink/blue is cold/Winter weather.
See the rest at the link below.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/ Go to "hazards"
Winter Weather
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/winter_wx.shtml
| Low Temperatures Tomorrow Morning |
LOOK AT THE COLD!
High Temperatures today and Wednesday.
Widespread cold!
Compact Winter storm on Thursday morning near S. Illinois/W. Kentucky. Very small area with several inches of snow.
nam_namer_048_500_vort_ht | nam_namer_048_1000_500_thick |
nam_namer_048_700_rh_ht | nam_namer_048_850_temp_ht |
Highs for days 3-7:
A new blast of cold on Friday/Saturday, N.Plains to Midwest to Northeast this weekend! Receding cold next week.
How do these days 3-7 temperatures compare to average at this time of year?
Mild West, Coldest anomalies East to South.
Low Temperature Departures:
Surface features for the same 3-7 day period:
Reinforcing blast of Arctic cold on Friday/Saturday. Moderation and quiet next week.
The latest precip forecasts for the next week are below.
Heavier amounts will be well east of the Cornbelt.
Day 1 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_94qwbg.gif?1526306199054
Day 2 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_98qwbg.gif?1528293750112
Day 3 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_99qwbg.gif?1528293842764
Days 4-5 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162
Days 6-7 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/97ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162
7 Day Total precipitation below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.govcdx /qpf/p168i.gif?1530796126
Current Dew Points
Extraordinarily dry Arctic air across the country. A little bit of moisture sneaking up in the Southeast.
Latest radar loop
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/radar_tab.php
| Full resolution version loop (3400x1700 pixels - 2.2mb) |
Precipitation the past 24 hours
You can go to this link to see precipitation totals from recent time periods:
https://water.weather.gov/precip/
Go to precipitation, then scroll down to pick a time frame. Hit states to get the borders to see locations better. Under products, you can hit "observed" or "Percent of normal"
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Soil moisture anomaly:
Still wet on this particular metric in an enormous area. DRYING OUT in the Cornbelt for a long time(but very chilly air will mean drying rates will be minimal).
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Precipitation compared to average for the last 7, 14, 30 and 60 days.
Usually not updated for previous day until late the next day.
https://www.atmos.illinois.edu/~snodgrss/Ag_Wx.html
The top map is the Canadian ensemble average, the maps below are the individual members that make up the average
End of week 2....................0Z ensembles from Tuesday. To provide you with the progression of the past 3 days, read below.
From Saturday: Several members re instate cross polar flow(that brought down the current cold and have a pattern favorable for it to cross Canada.
Will it make is farther south?
From Sunday: Whoa nelly. A few members bring incredibly cold air across Canada into the US.........but the Canadian ensembles is much colder than all the other models because of this. Giant disparity in solutions of individual members and with different models(Euro ensembles are MUCH milder than this)
From Monday: Cross polar flow along with a southward extension of a deep polar vortex, that creates a strongly negative AO, in tandem with a -NAO makes these solutions look potentially very cold.........but still great uncertainty.
From Tuesday/Today: Looks similar to Monday..........COLD!
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Each member is like the parent, Canadian model operational model.......with a slight tweek/variation in parameters. Since we know the equations to represent the physics of the atmosphere in the models are not perfect, its useful to vary some of the equations that are uncertain(can make a difference) to see if it effects the outcome and how.
The average of all these variations(ensembles) often yields a better tool for forecasting. It's always more consistent. The individual operational model, like each individual ensemble member can vary greatly from run to run.........and represent an extreme end of the spectrum at times. The ensemble average of all the members, because it averages the extremes.............from opposite ends of the spectrum.........changes much less from run to run.
360h GZ 500 forecast valid on Nov 28, 2018 00 UTC
0z GFS ensembles below.
Like yesterday, Southern stream that was significant on this model in previous days has given way to more northern stream dominance and looking colder as a result..............it has shifted strongly in the direction of the Canadian model, which did a better job the last 3 days at showing this pattern(not that it will happen but Canadian model is taking the lead on changes right now).
GFS ensemble pattern still not as cold as the Canadian ensembles.
Latest, updated graph/forecast for AO and NAO here, including an explanation of how to interpret them.
Sunday's comment: For late week 2 here on Sunday. Huge 1 day change!!!
Monday: the change continues in the same cold direction.
Both the AO and NAO are MUCH more negative and with a MUCH greater spread. A few members are extreme.
They strongly favor very cold air moving into the US.
Tuesday's update: Following the same path of the previous 2 days. However, there is a tremendous spread in this indices at 2 weeks. That means uncertainty.
Just like weather maps having less skill in the later periods, the same is the case with the AO/NAO.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/15793/
National Weather Service 6-10 day, 8-14 day outlooks.
Updated early this afternoon.
Dry across the country. I have been colder than the NWS maps recently. They cooled their forecast today in the northern half of the country.
Temperature Probability | |
Precipitation Probability | |
| the 8-14 day outlooks ArchivesAnalogsLines-Only FormatGIS Data | |
Temperature Probability | |
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Comments from Monday:
By Jim_M - Nov. 12, 2018, 2:06 p.m.
As always Mike, thanks for the update.
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By metmike - Nov. 12, 2018, 3:52 p.m.
YW jim!
I disagree with the NWS 8-14 day outlook. Read my analysis above.
-AO, and -NAO along with very cold Canadian ensembles argues for widespread cold, not warm.
The market is trading this, being sharply higher right now.
Earlier, I feel that the milder GFS and Euopean model solutions put pressure on prices temporarily.(edit:only the GFS model was much milder, not the Euro)
The NWS gives their 8-14 day a 1 out of 5 confidence level. I can't remember when they were that low. I'll agree with that.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/fxus06.html
12z Canadian model ensembles continues to have some extraordinarily cold members/solutions, with a few not so cold:
360h GZ 500 forecast valid on Nov 28, 2018 12 UTC
Extreme weather days 3-7.............cold!
Extreme weather days 8-14, cold recedes to the Northeast:
