KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Monday, November 12, 2018
N/A U.S. Veterans Day observed by Federal employees
Tuesday, November 13, 2018
6:00 AM ET. October NFIB Index of Small Business Optimism
Small Business Idx (previous 107.9)
7:45 AM ET. The Retail Economist/Goldman Sachs Weekly Chain Store Sales Index
Chain Store Sales, W/W% (previous +1.5%)
Chain Store Sales, M/M% (previous +2.0%)
8:55 AM ET. Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, M/M% (previous +0.1%)
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, Y/Y% (previous +5.8%)
Latest Wk, Y/Y% (previous +6.1%)
Wednesday, November 14, 2018
0700/1200 11/10 MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey
Composite Idx (previous 316.2)
Composite Idx, W/W% (previous -4.0%)
Purchase Idx-SA (previous 213.6)
Purchase Idx-SA, W/W% (previous -5.0%)
Refinance Idx (previous 861.8)
Refinance Idx, W/W% (previous -2.5%)
8:30 AM ET. October Real Earnings
8:30 AM ET. October CPI
CPI, M/M% (previous +0.1%)
Core CPI, M/M% (previous +0.1%)
Energy Idx, M/M% (previous -0.5%)
Food Idx, M/M% (previous +0%)
Real Avg Wkly Pay-Infla Adj, M/M% (previous +0.2%)
CPI, Y/Y% (previous +2.3%)
Core Annual, Y/Y% (previous +2.2%)
8:30 AM ET. 2nd Quarter GDP by State
4:30 PM ET. API Weekly Statistical Bulletin
Crude Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +7.8M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -1.2M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -3.6M)
Thursday, November 15, 2018
8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims
Jobless Claims (previous 214K)
Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous -1K)
Continuing Claims (previous 1623000)
Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous -8K)
8:30 AM ET. October Import & Export Price Indexes
Import Prices (previous +0.5%)
Non-Petroleum Prices (previous +0.0%)
Petroleum Prices (previous +4.1%)
8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales
Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 701.5K)
Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 391.4K)
Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 661.2K)
8:30 AM ET. November Empire State Manufacturing Survey
Mfg Idx (previous 21.1)
Employment Idx (previous 9.0)
New Orders Idx (previous 22.5)
Prices Received (previous 14.3)
8:30 AM ET. November Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey
Business Activity (previous 22.2)
Prices Paid (previous 38.2)
Employment (previous 19.5)
New Orders (previous 19.3)
Prices Received (previous 24.1)
Delivery Times (previous 0.2)
Inventories (previous -0.8)
Shipments (previous 24.5)
8:30 AM ET. October Advance Monthly Sales for Retail & Food Services
Overall Sales-SA, M/M% (previous +0.1%)
Sales, Ex-Auto, M/M% (previous -0.1%)
Sales, Ex-Auto & Gas, M/M% (previous +0.0%)
9:45 AM ET. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
10:00 AM ET. September Manufacturing & Trade: Inventories & Sales
Total Inventories (previous +0.5%)
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 3208B)
Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous +65B)
11:00 AM ET. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Crude Oil Stocks (Bbl) (previous 431.787M)
Crude Oil Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +5.783M)
Gasoline Stocks (Bbl) (previous 228.021M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +1.852M)
Distillate Stocks (Bbl) (previous 122.857M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -3.465M)
Refinery Usage (previous 90.0%)
Total Prod Supplied (Bbl/day) (previous 20.386M)
Total Prod Supplied, Net Chg (Bbl/day) (previous -0.611M)
4:30 PM ET. Money Stock Measures
4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings
4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings
Friday, November 16, 2018
9:15 AM ET. October Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization
Industrial Production, M/M% (previous +0.3%)
Capacity Utilization % (previous 78.1%)
Capacity Utilization, Net Chg (Pts) (previous +0.0)
10:00 AM ET. October Regional & State Employment & Unemployment
10:00 AM ET. 3rd Quarter Advance Quarterly Services
11:00 AM ET. Nov. Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Survey of Tenth District Manufacturing
Mfg Activity Idx (previous 5)
6-Mo Exp Prod Idx (previous 37)
Mfg Composite Idx (previous 8)
6-Mo Exp Composite Idx (previous 21)
4:00 PM ET. September Treasury International Capital Data
The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=indexes"
The STOCK INDEXES:The December NASDAQ 100 was steady to slightly higher overnight.Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below last-Monday's low crossing at 6865.00 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December resumes the rally off October's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 7309.80 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 7231.00. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 7309.80. First support is last-Monday's low crossing at 6865.00. Second support is October's low crossing at 6580.50.
The December S&P 500 was steady to slightly lower overnight.Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2743.26 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December extends the aforementioned rally, the 50-day moving average crossing at 2830.62 is the next upside target.First resistance is the October 17th reaction high crossing at 2823.00. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2830.62. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2743.26. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the April-September-rally rally crossing at 2628.96.
INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"
INTEREST RATES: December T-bonds were higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 138-04 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December resumes the decline off October's high, October's low crossing at 136-16 is the next downside target. First resistance is October's high crossing at 139-28. Second resistance is the September 28th reaction high crossing at 141-04. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at 136-24. Second support is October's low crossing at 136-16.
December T-notes was higher in overnight trading as it consolidates some of the decline off October's high. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. If December resumes the decline off October's high, October's low crossing at 117.135 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 118.184 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 118.184. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 119.060. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 117.225. Second support is October's low crossing at 117.135.
ENERGY MARKETS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=energy"
ENERGY MARKETS: DecemberNymex crude oil was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off October's high. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible near-term. If December extends the decline off October's high, the 62% retracement level of the 2017-2018-rally crossing at 57.38 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 65.43 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 62.50. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 65.43. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 59.25. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the 2017-2018-rally crossing at 57.38.
December heating oil was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off October's high. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remains neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 224.68 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. If December extends the decline off October's high, the 38% retracement level of the 2017-2018-rally crossing at 208.29 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 224.68. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 228.22. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 211.92. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the 2017-2018-rally crossing at 208.29.
December unleaded gas was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off October's high. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible near-term. If December extends the decline off October's high, the 75% retracement level of the 2017-2018-decline crossing at 150.82 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 177.73 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted.First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 168.83. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 177.73. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 159.84. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2017-2018-decline crossing at 150.82.
December Henry natural gas was higher overnight as it extends the rally off September's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off October's high, the 62% retracement level of the 2014-2016-rally crossing at 4.065 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.371 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 3.854. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of 2014-2016-rally crossing at 4.065. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 3.478. Second support is the bottom of the November 5th gap crossing at 3.313.
CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"
CURRENCIES:The December Dollar was higher overnight and posted a new contract high as it renewed this year's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but remain neutral to bullish signaling sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends this year's rally, weekly resistance crossing at 97.83 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 96.13 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 97.41. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 97.83. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 96.13. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 95.23.
The December Euro was lower overnight as it renewed its decline off September's high. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off September's high, the 87% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 113.54 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 114.52 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 114.52. Second resistance is the October 16th reaction high crossing at 116.78. First support is the 75% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 113.54. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 111.15.
The December British Pound gapped down and was lower overnight. The low-range trade in the overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session beings trading.Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off last-Wednesday's high, October's low crossing at 1.2722 is the next downside target. If December renews the rally off October's low, October's high crossing at 1.3297 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 1.3198. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 1.3297. First support is October's low crossing at 1.2722. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 1.2632.
The December Swiss Franc was lower overnight as it extends the decline off September's high. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off September's high, weekly support crossing at 0.9921 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0035 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0035. Second resistance is the October 15th reaction high crossing at 1.0212. First support is the overnight low crossing at 0.9925. Second support is weekly support crossing at 0.9921.
The December Canadian Dollar was slightly higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off October's high, the July 20th reaction low crossing at 75.47 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 76.78 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 76.78. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 77.18. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 75.61. Second support is the July 20th reaction low crossing at 75.47.
The December Japanese Yen was steady to slightly higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off October's high, the January-2016 low crossing at 0.0872 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0892 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is October's high crossing at 0.0901. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 0.0912. First support is the overnight low crossing at 0.0877. Second support is the January-2016 low crossing at 0.0872.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"
PRECIOUS METALS: December gold was lower overnight as it extends last-Friday's downside breakout of the trading range of the past four-weeks. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends last-Friday's decline, October's low crossing at 1186.00 is the next downside target. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 1239.30 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is October's high crossing at 1246.00. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the April-August-Decline crossing at 1251.30. First support is October's low crossing at 1186.00. Second support is the August low crossing at 1167.10.
December silver was lower overnight as it extends last-Friday's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends last-Friday's decline, September's low crossing at 13.965 is the next downside target. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 14.950 would renew the rally off September's low. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 14.950. Second resistance is the August 28th reaction high crossing at 15.070. First support is last-Friday low crossing at 14.080. Second support is September's low crossing at 13.965.
December copper was higher overnight. The mid-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends last-week's decline, October's low crossing at 264.25 is the next downside target. If December resumes the rally off October's low, September's high crossing at 287.10 is the next upside target. First resistance is September's high crossing at 287.10. Second resistance is the July 5th gap crossing at 293.10. First support is October's low crossing at 264.25. Second support is September's low crossing at 258.00.
GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains
December corn was higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.64 3/4 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. If December extends the rally off September's low, the 50% retracement level of the May-September-decline crossing at 3.85 3/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 3.79. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the May-September-decline crossing at 3.85 3/4. First support is the reaction low crossing at 3.60 1/4. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 3.54 1/2.
December wheat was higher overnight. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December resumes the decline off October's high, the December-2017 low crossing at 4.68 1/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.12 1/2 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.12 1/2. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 5.27 1/4. First support is October's low crossing at 4.85 1/2. Second support is the December-2017 low crossing at 4.68 1/4.
December Kansas City Wheat closed down 9 3/4-cents at 4.87 1/2.
December Kansas City wheat closed lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December renews the decline off October's high, October's low crossing at 4.84 1/2 is the next downside target. If December renews the rally off October's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.14 1/2 is the next upside target.First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.14 1/2. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 5.33 1/4. First support is October's low crossing at 4.84 1/2. Second support is the December-2017 low crossing at 4.78 1/4.
December Minneapolis wheat was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. December resumes the decline off October's high, September's low crossing at 5.60 1/4 is the next downside target. If December resumes the rally off October's low, October's high crossing at 6.02 1/4 is the next upside target. If First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 5.90. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 6.02 1/4. First support is October's low crossing at 5.65 3/4. Second support is September's low crossing at 5.60 1/4.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
November soybeans were lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If November extends the rally off October's low, the 38% retracement level of the May-September-decline crossing at 9.07 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 8.53 3/4 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is October's high crossing at 8.92. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the May-September-decline crossing at 9.07. First support is October's low crossing at 8.32 1/4. Second support is September's low crossing at 8.12 1/4.
December soybean meal was slightly higher overnight. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December resumes the decline off October's high, September's low crossing at 301.60 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 312.30 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is October's high crossing at 327.30. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the May-September-decline crossing at 3.36 1/4. First support is October's low crossing at 302.00. Second support is September's low crossing at 301.60.
December soybean oil was higher in overnight trading as it consolidates some of last-Friday's decline. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off October's high, September's low crossing at 27.13 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 28.58 would confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 28.58. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 30.01. First support is last-Friday low crossing at 27.61. Second support is September's low crossing at 27.13.