Weather Sunday
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Started by metmike - Nov. 11, 2018, 3:20 p.m.

It's November 11th!  Just another day? Do something nice for somebody today! Seriously, don't just think about it for a moment......do it now.

 Scroll down and  enjoy the latest comprehensive weather to the max. There will be some areas with Winter weather and a great deal of  cold.  


Here are the latest hazards across the country.   Green is flooding. Brown is wind, Gray is fog.  Reddish is a red flag advisory. Purple/Pink/blue is cold/Winter weather.

See the rest at the link below.

                          https://www.spc.noaa.gov/  Go to "hazards"                                                                                     

                   


Winter Weather

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/winter_wx.shtml


Image result for image of snowflakes






Low Temperatures Tomorrow Morning


LOOK AT THE COLD!                                          

             

Comments
By metmike - Nov. 11, 2018, 3:23 p.m.
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High Temperatures today and Monday.


Widespread cold!  

   

               

      

Nor'easter on late Tuesday doesn't get revved up until it's way up the Northeast Coast, close to Canada.


gfs_namer_060_200_wnd_ht
      gfs_namer_060_200_wnd_ht_s.gif   
      gfs_namer_060_500_vort_ht
      gfs_namer_060_500_vort_ht_s.gif   
      gfs_namer_060_1000_500_thick
      gfs_namer_060_1000_500_thick_s.gif   
      gfs_namer_060_850_temp_ht
      gfs_namer_060_850_temp_ht_s.gif


By metmike - Nov. 11, 2018, 3:29 p.m.
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Highs for days 3-7:


Coldest air recedes this week, then a new blast on Friday, Midwest to Northeast this weekend!


http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY3_MAX_filled.gif

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY4_MAX_filled.gifhttp://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY5_MAX_filled.gifhttp://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY6_MAX_filled.gifhttp://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY7_MAX_filled.gif

By metmike - Nov. 11, 2018, 3:32 p.m.
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How do these days 3-7 temperatures compare to average at this time of year?

 
Mild West, Coldest anomalies East to South.



http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/hpcmaxwbg.gif


Low Temperature Departures:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/hpcminwbg.gif

By metmike - Nov. 11, 2018, 3:39 p.m.
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Surface features for the same 3-7 day period:


Cold Arctic High pressure has settled in. Moderation this week, then a reinforcing blast on Friday that wasn't this strong when ng closed on Friday.

  https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif

By metmike - Nov. 11, 2018, 3:43 p.m.
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By metmike - Nov. 11, 2018, 3:43 p.m.
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Current Dew Points

 

Extraordinarily  dry Arctic air across the country.

Current Dew Points

                                    


     

Latest radar loop


http://www.nws.noaa.gov/radar_tab.php

Doppler Radar National Mosaic Loop

                          

Full resolution version loop (3400x1700 pixels - 2.2mb)
 


      


Rains the past 24 hours


                                    


    

You can go to this link to see rain totals from recent time periods:


https://water.weather.gov/precip/


                              Go to precipitation, then scroll down to pick a time frame. Hit states to get the borders to see locations better. Under products, you can hit "observed" or "Percent of normal"      

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     Soil moisture anomaly:


Still  wet on this particular metric in an enormous area.  DRYING OUT in the Cornbelt for a long time(but very chilly air will mean drying rates will be minimal).

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Soilmst_Monitoring/Figures/daily/curr.w.anom.daily.gif


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Rains compared to average for the last 7, 14, 30 and 60 days. 

Usually not updated for previous day until late the next day.

https://www.atmos.illinois.edu/~snodgrss/Ag_Wx.html

http://weather.agribleservices.com/ahps/7_day_percent.png


http://weather.agribleservices.com/ahps/14_day_percent.png

http://weather.agribleservices.com/ahps/30_day_percent.pnghttp://weather.agribleservices.com/ahps/60_day_percent.png

By metmike - Nov. 11, 2018, 3:52 p.m.
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The top map is the Canadian ensemble average, the maps below are the individual members that make up the average


End of week 2....................12Z ensembles from Sunday.

From Saturday: Several members re instate cross polar flow(that brought down the current cold and have a pattern favorable for it to cross Canada.

Will it make is farther south?


From Sunday: Whoa nelly.  A few members bring incredibly cold air across Canada into the US.........but the Canadian ensembles is much colder than all the other models because of this.


Giant disparity in solutions of individual members and with different models(Euro ensembles are MUCH milder than this)



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Each member is like the parent, Canadian model operational model.......with a slight tweek/variation in parameters. Since we know the equations to represent the physics of the atmosphere in the models are not perfect, its useful to vary some of the equations that are uncertain(can make a difference) to see if it effects the outcome and how.

The average of all these variations(ensembles) often yields a better tool for forecasting. It's always more consistent. The individual operational model, like each individual ensemble member can vary greatly from run to run.........and represent an extreme end of the spectrum at times. The ensemble average of all the members, because it averages the extremes.............from opposite ends of the spectrum.........changes much less from run to run.

360h GZ 500 forecast valid on Nov 25, 2018 00 UTC

360h GZ 500 forecast valid on Nov 26, 2018 12 UTC

GZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecast

By metmike - Nov. 11, 2018, 3:54 p.m.
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0z GFS ensembles below.

Southern stream trough in the West is showing up on a lot of solutions still. Only a couple as cold as the Canadian. 



http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSHGT_0z/f360.gif

By metmike - Nov. 11, 2018, 3:57 p.m.
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Latest, updated graph/forecast for AO and NAO here, including an explanation of how to interpret them. 

For late week 2 here on Sunday. Huge 1 day change!!!

Both the AO and NAO are MUCH more negative and with a MUCH greater spread. A few members are extreme.

They now favor very cold air moving into the US. 


Just like weather maps having less skill in the later periods, the same is the case with the AO/NAO.


https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/15793/

                                    


By metmike - Nov. 11, 2018, 3:57 p.m.
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National Weather Service 6-10 day, 8-14 day outlooks.


 Updated early this afternoon. Big Chill shifts east!!!!

Warm West, shifts eastward.

Dry across the country.




Temperature Probability

6 to 10 Day Outlook - Temperature Probability
 Precipitation Probability

  6 to 10 Day Outlook - Precipitation Probability

  

the 8-14 day outlooks
ArchivesAnalogsLines-Only FormatGIS Data

Temperature Probability

8 to 14 Day Outlook - Temperature Probability
8 to 14 Day Outlook - Precipitation Probability