KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Friday, February 16, 2018
8:30 AM ET. January Import & Export Price Indexes
Import Prices (expected +0.6%; previous +0.1%)
Non-Petroleum Prices (previous -0.2%)
Petroleum Prices (previous +2.0%)
8:30 AM ET. January New Residential Construction - Housing Starts and Building Permits
Total Starts (expected 1.24M; previous 1.192M)
Housing Starts, M/M% (expected +4.2%; previous -8.2%)
Building Permits (expected 1.31M; previous 1.302M)
Building Permits, M/M% (expected +0.8%; previous -0.1%)
10:00 AM ET. February University of Michigan Survey of Consumers – preliminary
Mid-Mo Sentiment (expected 94.6; previous 94.4)
Mid-Mo Expectations (previous 84.8)
Mid-Mo Current Idx (previous 109.2)
10:00 AM ET. 4th Quarter Quarterly Retail E-Commerce Sales
10:00 AM ET. 4th Quarter Advance Quarterly Services
Monday, February 19, 2018
N/A U.S. Presidents Day / Washington's Birthday. Financial markets closed
The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=indexes"
The STOCK INDEXES:The March NASDAQ 100 was higher overnight as it extends the rally off last Friday's low. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off February's low, January's high crossing at 7047.25 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 6582.75 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 6859.75. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 7047.25. First support is the 38% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 6217.54. Second support is the late-October low crossing at 6024.00.
The March S&P 500 was higher overnight as it extends the rally off last Friday's low. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 2749.01 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March resumes the decline off January's high, the 50% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 2421.52 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2747.01. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 2839.00. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 2627.50. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 2529.20.
INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"
INTEREST RATES: March T-bonds were slightly higher overnight as they consolidate some of this week's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March resumes the decline off January's high, weekly support crossing at 140-03 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 146-09 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 144-18. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 146-09. First support is Thursday's low crossing at 143-04. Second support is weekly support crossing at 140-03.
March T-notes were higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off last September's high. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off last September's high, weekly support crossing at 119.170 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 121.127 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 121.127. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 122.236. First support is Thursday's low crossing at 120.010. Second support is weekly support crossing at 119.170.
ENERGY MARKETS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=energy"
ENERGY MARKETS: MarchNymex crude oil was higher overnight as it extends the rebound off last week's low.Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 63.08 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews the decline off January's high, the 38% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 55.87 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 61.06. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 63.08. First support is the 38% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 55.87. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 52.53.
March heating oil was slightly higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish hinting that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 199.43 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March resumes the decline off January's high, the 50% retracement level of the June-January-rally crossing at 178.38 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 190.41. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 199.43. First support is the 50% retracement level of the June-January-rally crossing at 178.38. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the June-January-rally crossing at 170.04.
March unleaded gas was steady to slightly lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish hinting that a short-term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 181.93 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March resumes the decline off January's high, the 50% retracement level of the June-January-rally crossing at 162.06 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 174.05. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 181.93. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 165.19. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the June-January-rally crossing at 162.06.
March Henry natural gas was lower overnight as it extends the decline off January's high. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below key support marked by December's low crossing at 2.532 could prove to be a bear trap due to the oversold condition of the market. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.842 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 2.644. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.842. First support is December's low crossing at 2.532. Second support is weekly support crossing at 2.522.
CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"
CURRENCIES:The March Dollar was higher in late-overnight trading as it consolidates some of this week's decline. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below key support marked by January's low crossing at 88.25 would open the door for a possible test of weekly support crossing at 87.45. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 89.52 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 91.06. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 92.36. First support is January's low crossing at 88.25. Second support is weekly support crossing at 87.45.
The March Euro was lower in late-overnight trading as it consolidates some of this week's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this week's rally, weekly resistance crossing at 126.74 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 123.86 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is January's high crossing at 125.76. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 126.74. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 123.86. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 121.67.
The March British Pound was lower overnight as it consolidates some of this week's gains. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this week's rally, February's high crossing at 1.4302 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.3960 would temper the friendly outlook. First resistance is February's high crossing at 1.4302. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 1.4370. First support is last Friday's low crossing at 1.3780. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3752.
The March Swiss Franc were lower overnight as it consolidates some of this week's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, the 38% retracement level of the 2015-2016-decline crossing at 1.0994 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0709 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 1.0908. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2015-2016-decline crossing at 1.0994. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0709. Second support is February's low crossing at 1.0589.
The March Canadian Dollar was slightly lower overnight as it consolidates some of this week's gains. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 80.36 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March resumes the decline off January's high, the 75% retracement level of the December-January-rally crossing at 78.56 is the next downside target.First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 80.36. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 81.68. First support is the 75% retracement level of the December-January-rally crossing at 78.56. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the December-January-rally crossing at 78.06.
The March Japanese Yen was lower due to profit taking overnight but not before testing resistance marked by the 50% retracement level of the 2016 decline crossing at 0.9491. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off January's low, the 62% retracement level of the 2016 decline crossing at 0.9680 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.9212 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2016 decline crossing at 0.9491. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2016 decline crossing at 0.9680. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 0.9267. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.9212.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"
PRECIOUS METALS: April gold was higher overnight as it extends the rally off February's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends the rally off February's low, January's high crossing at 1370.50 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 1314.80 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 1364.40. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 1370.50. First support is the 50% retracement level of the December-January-rally crossing at 1306.70. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the Dec.-January-rally crossing at 1291.60.
March silver was slightly lower overnight as it consolidates some of this week's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 16.866 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March resumes the decline off January's high, December's low crossing at 15.635 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 16.866. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 17.705. First support is February's low crossing at 16.130. Second support is December's low crossing at 15.635.
March copper was slightly higher overnight as it extends the rally off February's low. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off February's low, the reaction high crossing at 329.10 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 316.04 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 329.10. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 332.20. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 316.04. Second support is the 75% retracement level of December's rally crossing at 303.58.
GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains
March corn was steady to fractionally lower overnight as it consolidates above broken resistance marked by the 25% retracement level of the July-January-decline crossing at 3.65 1/2. The low-range trade overnight sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off January's low, last September's high crossing at 3.74 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.61 1/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-October's high crossing at 3.69 1/4. Second resistance is last-September's high crossing at 3.74 1/2. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.61 1/4. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 3.56 1/4.
March wheat was lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.48 1/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off January's low, last September's high crossing at 4.82 is the next upside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 4.67 1/4. Second resistance is last September's high crossing at 4.82. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.48 1/4. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 4.38 3/4.
March Kansas City Wheat closed up 8 1/4-cents at 4.78.
March Kansas City wheat closed higher on Thursday as it extends the trading range of the past six-days. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's high, the 38% retracement level of 2017's trading range crossing at 4.88 1/2. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.58 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last Thursday's high crossing at 4.84 1/2. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of 2017's trading range crossing at 4.88 1/2. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.58. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.39.
March Minneapolis wheat was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. If March extends the decline off January's high, the 87% retracement level of the April-July-rally crossing at 5.89 1/2 is the next downside target. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 6.21 1/2 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 6.21 1/2. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 6.34 1/2. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 5.99 1/2. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the April-July-rally crossing at 5.89 1/2.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
March soybeans were steady to fractionally lower overnight as they consolidate some of the rally off January's low.The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off January's low, December's high crossing at 10.27 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 9.93 3/4 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 10.25. Second resistance is Dec.'s high crossing at 10.27. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 9.98 3/4. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 9.93 3/4.
March soybean meal was higher overnight as it extends the rally off January's low. The high-range trade overnight sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this winter's rally, weekly resistance crossing at 378.80 is the next upside target. Closes below Monday's gap crossing at 344.80 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 376.40. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 378.80. First support is Monday's gap crossing at 344.80. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 344.90.
March soybean oil was steady to slightly lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off November's high, the July-2016 low crossing at 31.19 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 32.41 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 32.41. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 32.92. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 31.40. Second support is the July-2016 low crossing at 31.19.
LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock
April hogs closed down $0.93 at $69.73.
April hogs closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 72.31 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If April renews the decline off January's high, the 75% retracement level of the August-January-rally crossing at 68.07 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 70.62. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 72.31. First support is Monday's low 68.55. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the August-January-rally crossing at 68.07.
April cattle closed up $2.03 at 127.25.
April cattle closed higher on Thursday and has renewed the rally off January's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends the rally off January's low, November's high crossing at 130.10 is the next upside target. Multiple closes below last Friday's low crossing at 122.80 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 127.43. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 130.10. First support is last Friday's low crossing at 122.80. Second support is January's low crossing at 118.05.
March Feeder cattle closed up $1.65 at $149.83.
March Feeder cattle closed higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March renews the rally off December's low, the reaction high crossing at 154.05 is the next upside target. If March resumes the decline off February's high, the reaction low crossing at 142.42 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 154.05. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 156.13. First support is the reaction low crossing at 142.42. Second support is January's low crossing at 140.13.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
March coffee closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. Multiple closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 12.32 are needed to confirms that a short-term low has been posted. If March resumes the decline off January's high, December's low crossing at 11.83 is the next downside target.
March cocoa closed sharply higher for the second day in a row on Thursday as it extends the rally off December's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, the 87% retracement level of the November-December-decline crossing at 21.71 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 19.44 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.
March sugar closed higher on Thursday. The mid-range close set the stage for a steady opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top is in or near. If March extends this week's decline, the reaction low crossing at 13.17 is the next downside target. If March resumes the rally off January's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 14.05 is the next upside target.
March cotton closed lower on Thursday as it extends the decline off January's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off January's high, the 62% retracement level of the October-January-rally crossing at 73.52 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 78.40 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.