"Bloomberg News (BN) Date: Nov 5 2018 13:40:00
Cotton Production, Inventory Survey Before USDA WASDE Report
By Dominic Carey
(Bloomberg) — The following table shows results of a Bloomberg News survey
of as many as eight analysts for the USDA’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand
report on the 2018-19 cotton crop, which is scheduled for release at noon in
Washington on Nov. 8. Figures are in millions of bales.
2018-19:| Avg | Low | High | Oct.
US Production | 19.21| 18.65| 19.75| 19.76
US Exports | 15.25| 14.80| 15.50| 15.50
US End Stocks | 4.62| 4.15| 5.10| 5.00
World Production | 120.82| 120.00| 121.50| 121.66
World Consumption | 127.45| 127.00| 128.00| 127.76
World End Stocks | 74.16| 72.85| 75.00| 74.45
Analyst |————U.S.————| World
| | | End
Estimates: |Production |Exports |Stocks |Production |Consumption |Stocks
Cottonexperts.com | 19.46| 15.00| 5.10| 120.66| 127.00| 74.00
Doane | 19.00| 15.50| 4.15| 121.00| 128.00| 74.00
Love Consulting | 19.20| 15.50| 4.60| 121.30| 128.00| 74.50
Price Futures Group| 19.55| 15.50| 4.75|n/a |n/a |n/a
Rabobank | 19.30| 15.20| 4.84| 121.00| 127.40| 74.20
Rose Commodity | | | | | |
Group | 18.75| 15.00| 4.20| 120.25| 127.25| 74.55
Varner Bros. | 18.65| 14.80| 4.59| 120.00| 127.00| 72.85
Wedbush Securities | 19.75| 15.50| 4.70| 121.50| 127.50| 75.00
Copyright (c) 2018, Bloomberg, L. P."
So, the average guess for US production (excluding the Wedbush #, which I discovered isn't a valid guess) is a drop of ~630K bales to 19.13. My educated guess is that the lower end of bolded US production guesses has a much better chance to be closer than the higher end. I've already posted several times with confidence that I think 4% is going to be the minimum reduction (4% would take it to near Doane's 19.00) with even a near record tieing Nov USDA 6% drop quite doable, which would put it near Varner's 18.65. So, my prediction is for the 18.65-19.00 range with a miss of this range being more likely to be lower than higher. Of course, there are other very important numbers to be released in the WASDE.
Today was a strong day for CT with the highest close for a Wednesday, the day before the weekly export sales report, since Sep 12. Volume was quite high. The combo of a very strong Dow, weak dollar, and election results were likely the main culprits though short covering/buying ahead of the USDA may also have been an influence of note.
Tomorrow is the AM weekly export sales and the monthly USDA production/WASDE.
The factors that you mentioned were likely important. I was actually guessing that the cotton market might be pretty strong ahead of the expected report tomorrow and was thinking today's strength was mostly from that.
I was considering my first USDA report position in over a decade for awhile, being long ahead of the report but talked myself out of it because of the uncertainty.
But its been your comprehensive analysis that has me feeling this report will be bullish and result in a spike higher after the release.
You have only been reporting the objective data, the above interpretation is mine, not yours.
However, there just seems to be too much uncontrolled risk to do this.
It's not like buying CTZ at 79c and risking to 78c for instance. The volatility after the release of the report could be incredible. Maybe a stop at 78c gets filled closer to 77c if the report is bearish?
Or we have a knee jerk spike up and down, with the down spike hitting the stop, then going higher.........or vice versa.
I remember the days YOU would use your weather knowledge to magnificently 'play' the NG market during the hurricanes. Had you only an hour before a report with only one day to option expiration, I am confident you would have exploited your (perceived, then actual) knowledge.
Perhaps I place too much confidence on THE weekly cycle having been determined WITH two tests AND Larry's fundamental analysis.
I believe my risk/reward with soon to expire options will be rewarded.
MY 'TRADING' style is NOT for everyone. Be mindful of your own due diligence!!
Thanks for the kind words and bringing back some fond memories. You've been around the block a few times too and we are still here.
I mainly watch the grain reactions on the release of a USDA report but today, I'll be most interested in cotton.
If what we have discussed here shows up on the report, I'll guess that we'll spike above 80c immediately upon the release.
One would think that the massive deterioration in conditions will lead to a low end production number but, not being a cotton expert, maybe some of that is just more poor quality cotton, which will be counted in production............and lead to a higher number than expected(by me) than just based on the crop condition/rating.
Cotton production down 7% and we got the spike higher above 80c right after the release.........but we can't add to those gains, at least not in the first 10 minutes as we went down and tested the pre report prices.
The high of 80.50 is some very major resistance going back to the downside breakout a couple of months ago when it was major support.
Extremely bullish. First of all, US:
US production dropped 7%, which was 4%/800K bales more than the Bloomberg industry survey average of 3% (7% is new record high drop for Nov report beating 6% of 1974). Exports did decrease 500K bales, but a 250K bale decrease was projected. So, exports were only 250K to the bearish vs the 800K to the bullish for US production. So, a net 550K to the bullish. Ending stocks came in at 4.30 million bales (MB) vs 5.00 last month and 4.65 for the Bloomberg survey average.
Now the World #s:
World production came in at 119.39 MB, a whopping 2.17 MB/2% drop from last month and 1.43 MB under the Bloomberg survey's avg of 120.82 MB. World usage did come in somewhat bearish at 126.88 MB, which is 880K less than last month and 570K less than the survey. But the net result of those 2 was 860K to the bullish vs the survey. Related to this, world ending stocks came in at a very bullish 72.61 MB vs last month's 74.45 MB and the survey average of 74.16 MB.
If cotton was trading mainly off of this, you would think that it would be well above 80c and even close to limit up if it was trading purely off of this.
My guess is that 80c cotton, which is near 5 year highs is just very expensive.
That's why I normally stick to predicting reports, which are pretty scientific/fact based and fun, rather than trying to predict market movements, which have the human element and other unpredictable elements. However, one thing I will sometimes do with regard to market movements is to look at past history of mkt reaction to reports like the USDA. I may post more about this later.
Edit: One thing to note is that the dollar was sharply up today and the stock indices were down modestly much of the day, both of which are typically bearish when CT trades off of them. Despite these bearish elements, CT did rise to the highest since 9/18.
From Michael: GA was cut 950K (33%), AL was cut 240K (21%), and FL was cut 75K (38%). So, the total Michael related cuts:
1,265 KB or 1.265 MB or a whopping 6.4% of the entire US crop.
How does Michael compare to other hurricanes since 1970? The damage in %/# of KB is way above any other single storms on record. Actually, based on records of past hurricanes , this storm likely did the highest % damage at the very least since the major H of 1898:
Worst US CT crop % damage estimates from a hurricane back to 1970 based on my own calculations:
1. Michael 2018 6.4%/1,265 KB
2. Floyd 1999 3.0%/530 KB
3. Matthew 2016 2.6%/410 KB
4. Gustav 2008 2.2%/300 KB
5. Irma 2017 1.8%/400 KB
6. Opal 1995 0.9%/175 KB
Imagine where the price would be if not for these record losses in production!
SAD. Did not know I had to know the direction of SPX to trade cotton
CT being strongly affected by equities is nothing really new. But not only are equities down strongly, but the dollar is up again after a very strong day yesterday. With the 25% China tariff, the higher dollar is extra negative for exports. Also, today being options expiration could be playing a part. It certainly isn’t the USDA Production report, which was about as bullish as one could imagine!
My guess is options expiration and we might be higher on Monday.
This is what happened a month ago the day that CT options expired.
Also think that 80c cotton is very expensive. Only the price spike 8 years ago caused cotton prices to be well above 80c and they were back down close to that level a bit over a year later.
Cotton 10 year chart below
Cotton 5 year chart below
Once again, there was earlier weakness followed by late buying. The late buying was pretty impressive lifting Dec 90-100 points off its bottom.
Maybe today was as Mike thinks down as much due to options expiration as anything else, but I'd call it a combo of that with the weak equities and strong dollar.
I have stats I may post later regarding price reactions to past Nov USDA reports. They're rather interesting.
Relationship between Oct significant reduction in US G/E less P/VP and Nov USDA US crop reduction incorporating Nov 2018:
-19 in 2018: USDA reduced 7%
-10 in 2009: USDA reduced 4%
-8 in 1993: USDA reduced 4%
-5 in 2010: USDA reduced 2%
-4 in 2008: USDA reduced 1%
Relationship between significant Oct reduction change in US E less VP and Nov USDA US crop reduction incorporating Nov 2018:
-16 in 2018: USDA reduced 7%
-4 in 2009: USDA reduced 4%
-2 in 1993: USDA reduced 4%
-1 in 2010: USDA reduced 2%
-1 in 2008: USDA reduced 1%
The overall lousy harvest wx continues with several inches of snow expected tonight into tomorrow morning in the N portion of the NW TX CT belt (mainly N of Lubbock) and lighter but still accumulating snow further south into and S of Lubbock being forecasted. SW OK will also be affected. Also, the SE US has been very soggy nearly the entire November and additional heavy rains are forecasted over the next few days. This s will affect what was not already lost of the unharvested GA, AL, and FL crops as well as the unharvested Carolinas crop. GA/SC and NW TX/OK still had a lot of unharvested crop per the last weekly report.
Important to note is that Nov is normally dry in these areas and therefore is typically good for harvest. However, El Nino is enhancing moisture bigtime.
My system is sideway,pointing to bearish on weekly and monthly
There will be no weekly progress report today due to the holiday. Tomorrow's will report CT harvest progress though no crop condition. The amount of rain in the main GA cotton regions has been way above normal this typically dry month (rain most days) and more is falling today into Thursday including heavy amounts for many. With that being the case, I expect the harvest progress reported on tomorrow's as well as next Monday's report to show very few field work days and a resulting falling behind on the GA harvest. Last week's report had GA at 53% vs 54% 5 year average. The report to be released next Monday will have 5 year averaged harvest % near 73%. I believe GA will be hard pressed to even reach 65% on that report and it may even be only near 60%. This open boll/harvest season from AZ through TX/OK/KS and then in the SE US has been one ugly one due to 2 hurricanes, heavy/persistent rains, an early hard freeze (NW TX), and cool, damp (NW TX/SW OK/AZ) though the Delta and Cali did/are doing pretty good.
Today, CT fell sharply due to the often bearish combo of a strong dollar and a very weak Dow along with no end in sight in the China/US trade war. Further drops may occur in the coming weeks due to these items though I'm not making a trade recommendation. The combo of bearishness due to weak export demand and bullishness of significant Nov cuts in US/world production that may get cut even more in the Dec USDA makes this an interesting market to follow with a lot of dynamics/cross currents in play.
CT US harvest update: now 54% vs 61% 5 year average... so falling further behind
11/11: 54% vs 61% 5 yr avg.
11/4: 49% vs 52% 5 yr avg
10/28: 44% vs 43% 5 yr avg
10/21: 39% vs 33% 5 yr avg
So, over the last 3 weeks, only 15% was harvested vs 28% 5 yr avg meaning harvest rate was only ~1/2 of the rate of the last 5 year average due to the very poor weather (that is still continuing this week, too..so expect slow harvest progress again in next week's report )
At only 54% harvested as of 11/11/18, this is the 2nd slowest since 1987 and is slowest since 2009:
1990-4 average: 71%
1985-9 average: 60%
Thanks again Larry for another amazing statistical analysis. Even more amazing is the lack of the cotton market caring enough to go higher.
Today and yesterdays low of 75.62 were not much above the September low of 75.37. December cotton has not traded lower than that since back in February of this year.
One would think that this is good support but I can also imagine a ton of sell stops below this.
A market that is near the lows with the most extremely bullish supply news ever for this time of year, over the past 6 weeks. It has been a wonderful learning experience for me......watching and you doing much of the work.
My guess is still that 80c cotton, in a globally traded environment must be too expensive, even if you take away massive supplies.
The demand/China thing isn't helping any.
Where would the price be if we hadn't lost all this supply?
Other thoughts are very welcome.
This is what happens to cotton when its left out in the field:
Here is a wonderful comprehensive discussion about all the bad things that happen to cotton which is subjected to conditions that are too wet during harvest season:
COTTON PHYSIOLOGY TODAY
You're welcome, Mike.
Below are some farmer comments from the very soggy SE from today's state reports. Keep in mind that this is just as of Sunday and there have been/will be daily rains though Thursday morning this week. With all this in mind and the US crop's slowest harvest since 2009 as well as 2nd slowest since 1985, odds are increasing for another USDA crop cut next month (though not nearly as large of course) as well as decreased average quality:
"Rain delayed the harvest of cotton, peanuts, and soybeans as the crops continued to decline seasonally. Some soybeans and peanuts sprouted. All livestock producers fed hay. Brent Allen, Washington County
Recent heavy rains slowed cotton and peanut harvesting. Farmers continued to deal with the impacts of Hurricane Michael. Luke Crosson, Calhoun County
All of the remaining cotton in the county started to lose quality from daily heavy rains and from being defoliated for more than two weeks. Justin Shealey, Echols County"
2. AL: (these 3 counties were top 16 CT in AL in 2017)
"Cotton and soybean harvest came to a standstill this week. Rain and wet field conditions prevented any progress with the harvest. Jeffrey Smith, Elmore County
Wet weather continued to contribute to losses in peanuts and cotton in the Wiregrass. Rainfall has been in such abundance in Houston County that it is causing extended delays in harvesting peanuts and cotton. Yields and quality continue to suffer in this unusual wet period. Willie Durr, Houston County"
Monroe County has been wet this week. Not a lot of huge rains but enough to keep producers out of the field. It has not been a good season for our cotton producers. Harvesting has been a challenge due to rainfall, fog, and no sunshine. Karen McDonald , Monroe County"
3. SC: (these were 2 of the 3 top SC CT counties in 2017)
"Continued rainfall has hampered the end of the harvest season. Fields have not been able to dry out before the rain comes and the quality of the final harvest is in question. Charles Davis, Calhoun County
Soybean fields still have some greens stalks in them. Some of the beans are showing some decrease in quality. Fall greens were looking really good. There is much cotton to be picked. Mark Nettles, Orangeburg County "
December cotton held its October lows.
Tuesday could have been daily cycle low. Fundamentals support seasonal cycle low timeframe.
Tell me when Pres. Trump and China kiss and make up!!
Did we get a tweet suggesting a kiss might be coming?
Would NOT care to be short. THE seasonal low appears to be in; a daily cycle low thereafter held and my one 76 call, now a future, is gaining.
Fundamentals strongly support rally, and the technical preceded the same. Besides, my 10 calls are gone!
Today's update has the CT harvest at only 59% complete vs the 69% 5 year average. So, it is falling even further behind. The 59% is now the slowest harvest as of 11/18 since way back in 1986, when only 56% was done.
11/18 : 59% vs 69% 5 yr avg.
11/11: 54% vs 61% 5 yr avg.
11/4: 49% vs 52% 5 yr avg
10/28: 44% vs 43% 5 yr avg
10/21: 39% vs 33% 5 yr avg
So, over the last 4 weeks, only 20% was harvested vs 36% 5 yr avg meaning just over 1/2 of the rate of the last 5 year average due to the very poor weather.
Here are some new GA/AL/SC farmer comments about the very wet and deteriorating conditions where only about 2 days were suitable for fieldwork last week:
1. GA: 65% harvested vs 74% 5 year avg.
- Continued rains halted harvesting and planting. Crops appeared to be deteriorating while waiting for harvest.
- This last week of rain and cloudy conditions really hurt the cotton crop.
- Wet weather added insult to injury. A solid week of significant rainfall further degraded both yield and quality of cotton, peanuts, and pecans.
2. AL: 74% harvested vs 80% 5 year avg
- Houston County farmers were trying to recover from a difficult harvest season. Continued rainfall caused major quality issues in the peanut and cotton crops in the Wiregrass. Houston County had its first freeze, which further declined the quality of peanuts on the ground and cotton bolls.
- Due to heavy rains in the area, the ground was saturated, and many farmers were not able to harvest their crops.
3. SC: 55% harvested vs 73% 5 year avg
- Wet conditions were causing crops to further deteriorate. While many producers remained hopeful that damage from tropical weather was minimal, the excessive moisture has prohibited harvest and field activity and continued to negatively impact crops. Dry weather is desperately needed.
- ---there is much cotton to be harvested yet.
- Continued rainy conditions during the week halted all fieldwork.
- Damp, rainy and threatening overcast skies for most of the week stalled most harvesting and fieldwork. Growers need a couple of weeks of sunshine and favorable weather to complete harvests.
The unharvested crop in GA/AL/SC is roughly near 1.1 MB based on estimates.
Also, TX and OK have had their big wetness problems this harvest season and are also way behind as a result. TX is at only 47% harvested vs 56% 5 yr avg. OK is at only 61% harvested vs 58% 5 year avg. I roughly estimate 4 MB of their crops sill unharvested.
So, my rough estimate of GA/AL/SC/TX/OK unharvested CT is 5 MB as of 11/18. It looks like a nontrivial portion of this will be abandoned or have yield losses from different sources that I've read including DTN today:
"Monday afternoon, USDA will issue its weekly crop progress report. However,
in talking with a few producers across the Southeast, there is the possibility
some of this 2018 crop will never be gathered. The fields are simply too wet to
support the harvesting equipment and more rain is forecast post Thanksgiving."
I have been thinking that in addition to lowering quality that there'd be actual further losses due to the very wet harvest season. I had said that it wouldn't be nearly as large as the very large drop in the last USDA due to Michael. I still think that but I wonder just how many additional 100Ks bales might actually be lost.
Great contribution again Larry.......thanks much!
Here's the actual crop progress report:
Soil moisture anomaly:
Days 4-5 below.......another very unwelcome rain event for cotton country!
CT was down today due to a combo of a sharp fall in equities, a strong dollar, and no indication of an imminent end to the trade war as of now. Dec got a new low of 75.22, beating the prior low hit of 75.37 hit on October 1st prior to Michael. March's pre-Michael low of 76.50, also set on October 1, held today as the Mar-Dec spread has increased since then. Its low today was 77.37. However, that 77.37 was the lowest since the 77.30 of October 9th, which was the day that Michael became a major H and the day before he hit the SE US.
More unwanted rain is coming to the SE US in one or two stages around this weekend and ensemble guidance suggests more rain possible around the subsequent weekend. However the current week has provided good harvest wx there and in TX/OK. Of course, some farms in the SE may still be too wet to get the harvest equipment in the fields as some were saying they need 2 dry weeks after al of the heavy rains the first half of Nov.
I was looking forward to hearing your comment on cotton tonight because of the extreme cross currents/ignals going on in that market right now.
Actually, the supply side is extraordinarily bullish but everything else, has been even more bearish.
What do you get when you have up equities, down dollar, oversold conditions, and a long holiday weekend? A rally which at one point had CT up 200 points.
What do you get when you mix a down Dow, a strong dollar, and a very steeply down crude oil? A sharply down CT despite much improved export sales.
CT was up strongly today on a strong Dow/crude and possibly hangover from Fri's stronger weekly export report.
Finally, due to a drier SE US week, there was not surprisingly a harvest week that exceeded the 5 year average rate: it rose 11% from 59 % to 70% complete while the 5 year average rose only 8% from 69% to 77%. However, it still is 7% below average:
11/25: 69% vs 77% 5 yr avg.
11/18 : 59% vs 69% 5 yr avg.
11/11: 54% vs 61% 5 yr avg.
11/4: 49% vs 52% 5 yr avg
10/28: 44% vs 43% 5 yr avg
10/21: 39% vs 33% 5 yr avg
“China will agree to purchase a not yet agreed upon, but very substantial, amount of agricultural, energy, industrial, and other product from the United States to reduce the trade imbalance between our two countries,”
“China has agreed to start purchasing agricultural product from our farmers immediately.”
Based on the above assuming cotton is included in "agricultural", I think CT would be up sharply at the open, especially considering the very bullish supply side of the equation the last 2 months without much price rise. We'll see. Could it have a limit up session??
But if cotton is not directly included, I don't know. Does anyone know if cotton is included? Has that even been determined?
Anyway, I'd be surprised if CT doesn't open strong. Helping that could be the very heavy rains in S GA, SE AL, and NW FL today.
Anyone else have a guess?
Good call on the cotton Larry(open last night). Sorry for not responding earlier:
7 day precip from last 12z operational GFS. Wet for almost all of cotton country!
Bullish for unharvested cotton.
| << Previous|
Forecast Hour: 168
Image URL: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/12/namer/precip_ptot/gfs_namer_168_precip_ptot.gif
Cotton sold off to that lows late in the session. The gap higher from last night is still open but in jeopardy of being filled.........which would be a gap and cap technical sign.
The idea behind a gap and crap is an open that exceeds the previous range of trading(higher than the previous highs or lower than the previous lows).
If it occurs in the same direction of the previous move, it's often more powerful..........and can be a breakaway gap that suggests much higher prices if prices continue in that direction....... or with the gap and crap, the price reverses and gets back into the previous days trading range.
This often signals an exhaustion in the buying or selling the higher or lower prices that could not long be sustained outside the previous days range.........so prices must come back down(up) to attract buyers/sellers, who no longer are willing to chase the market, like they do when there is a price gap that is followed by prices continuing in that same direction, leaving the gap farther behind.
Mar CT finished up 1.04 cents today thought this was well off the highs as Mike mentioned. I assume this up day was due to a combo of the trade war truce and bullish US/world supply fundamentals, which were made even more bullish by still more very heavy rains SW GA/SE AL/NW FL hitting the unharvested crop this weekend. There will very likely be cuts and likely of significance in the next USDA monthly report of next week.
There will not be a weekly report as they are finished for the season.
Both the steep fall back from highs yesterday and today's modest drop are symptoms of a market that doesn't trust Trump's words about the meeting with the Chinese leader due to Trump's tendency to exaggerate or lie (similar to what the stock markets did today). However, it actually came back very strongly in the final minute before the settle indicative of traders not wanting to remain short between sessions.
CT had a strong day with a close that didn't feature selling at the end thus allowing it to close pretty high up in the range, something not seen too often on prior strong days. Strong crude helped early along with equity futures that were up, but CT held up even when crude fell back. I'm guessing that its own bullish supply fundamentals on looking ahead to next week's USDA gave it support. The high end close may mean more gains to come between now and the USDA report assuming stocks and crude don't fall hard and the dollar doesn't rise hard.
I said yesterday: 'The high end close may mean more gains to come between now and the USDA report assuming stocks and crude don't fall hard and the dollar doesn't rise hard."
Both stocks and crude fell very hard. In addition, the arrest of the Chinese company's CFO, which itself lead to stock drops, meant more question about whether or not there will be anything to come out of the truce. As a result, cotton fell very hard and ended the day just over 2 cents down. The lowest was 2.55 cents down.
After it settled at 1:15 PM CST, the Dow rose over 300 and crude rose .50. So, an at least temporary bounce at the open tonight wouldn't be surprising though that would also depend on what crude/stocks do this evening.
Wxwise, still another very wet system is going to hit the SE US this weekend, the last thing they need to finish the very slow harvest. Before that, it is expected to cause freezing rain followed by several inches of snow in much of the primary NW TX CT areas though I don't know if that would have much impact on the harvest there since it has been largely dry there for over a month.
CT was up strongly Fri partially on higher crude despite the DOW being sharply down.
- More heavy rains SW GA/SE AL/NW FL this weekend and still more expected next week....very bad for still unharvested CT there.
- The main NW TX CT areas centered around Lubbock had 5-11" of snow since yesterday, way more than expected and well above the 30 year average of 2.3" for the entire Dec there:
However, because the NW TX harvest has been going well the last month+ due to a dry Nov, this may not do much harm.
Related to all of this harvest wx from https://www.pcca.com/publications/cotton-market-weekly/
We are thankful harvest in much of the Southwest progressed quickly ahead of the snow and rain at the end of this week. West Texas cotton classing has improved over the past few weeks, and middling cotton has been the predominant grade in both the Lubbock and Lamesa classing offices. Sadly, that is not the case for most of the crop in the Mid-South and Southeast. Nationwide, USDA classed 1.36 million Upland bales this week, and less than 40 percent had a 31, 21, or 11 color. Three quarters of those high grades were classed in Lubbock, Lamesa and Abilene."
Remember that the CT that is traded at ICE has minimum standards that must be met. So, if there is a lot that is substandard, that means there is a lower supply of standard .
How much cotton is still in the field right now do you think?
Do you mean in SW GA, SE AL, and NW FL?
1. US production: 18.59 MB vs 18.41 last month and vs 18.22 average guess...so, this was slightly bearish. The increase was mainly due to a .30 MB increase in TX. (What these reports don't take into account are quality decreases as likely happened to the GA/AL/FL crop due to very heavy/persistent rains in Nov.)
Therefore, ending stocks were up very slightly to 4.40 MB vs 4.30 last month and vs 4.16 average guess.
2. World: production down to 118.74 MB from 119.39 last month. But world consumption was down more at 125.63 vs 126.88 last month,. Therefore, ending stocks rose to 73.19 from 72.61 last month and vs 72.33 average guess. So, the world stats were net bearish.
Mar CT, which was up prior to the report, is down but only modestly so. Also, per USDA stats, Mar CT closed on day 5 after the Dec USDA release higher 15 of the last 17 years higher vs the close of the prior day. The average change over this 5 day period for the 17 years was +2%. So, whereas I don't normally make price predictions, I can say that shorting this now may not be advisable per these last 17 years. Of course, a lot in the coming months will depend on the US China trade war.