KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Wednesday, November 7, 2018
7:00 AM ET. MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey
Composite Idx (previous 329.5)
Composite Idx, W/W% (previous -2.5%)
Purchase Idx-SA (previous 224.9)
Purchase Idx-SA, W/W% (previous -1.5%)
Refinance Idx (previous 884.2)
Refinance Idx, W/W% (previous -3.8%)
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Crude Oil Stocks (Bbl) (previous 426.004M)
Crude Oil Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +3.217M)
Gasoline Stocks (Bbl) (previous 226.169M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -3.161M)
Distillate Stocks (Bbl) (previous 126.322M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -4.054M)
Refinery Usage (previous 89.4%)
Total Prod Supplied (Bbl/day) (previous 20.997M)
Total Prod Supplied, Net Chg (Bbl/day) (previous -0.494M)
3:00 PM ET. September Consumer Credit
Consumer Credit Net Chg (USD) (previous +20.08B)
N/A U.S. Federal Open Market Committee meeting
Thursday, November 8, 2018
8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales
Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 399.4K)
Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 455.8K)
Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 582.5K)
8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims
Jobless Claims (previous 214K)
Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous -2K)
Continuing Claims (previous 1631000)
Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous -7K)
9:45 AM ET. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 3143B)
Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous +48B)
12:00 PM ET. World Agricultural Supply & Demand Estimates (WASDE)
Corn, End Stocks (Bushels)
Soybeans, End Stocks (Bushels)
Wheat, End Stocks (Bushels)
12:00 PM ET. October Monthly U.S. Retail Chain Store Sales Index
2:00 PM ET. U.S. interest rate decision
Federal Funds Rate
Federal Funds Rate Change (Pts)
Fed Funds Rate-Range High (previous 2.25)
Fed Funds Rate-Range Low (previous 2.00)
FOMC Vote For Action (previous 9)
FOMC Vote Against Action (previous 0)
Discount Rate (previous 2.75)
Discount Rate Change (Pts) (previous +0.25)
Discount Rate-Range High
Discount Rate-Range Low
4:30 PM ET. Money Stock Measures
4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings
4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings
Friday, November 9, 2018
8:30 AM ET. October PPI
PPI, M/M% (previous +0.2%)
Ex-Food & Energy PPI, M/M% (previous +0.2%)
Personal Consumption (previous +0.1%)
10:00 AM ET. November University of Michigan Survey of Consumers – preliminary
Mid-Mo Sentiment (previous 99.0)
Mid-Mo Expectations (previous 89.1)
Mid-Mo Current Idx (previous 114.4)
10:00 AM ET. September Monthly Wholesale Trade
Inventories, M/M% (previous +1.0%)
The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=indexes"
The STOCK INDEXES:The December NASDAQ 100 was sharply higher overnight following the results of midterm elections that fell in line with pre-election forecasts.Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above last-Friday's high crossing at 7143.25 are needed to renew the rally off October's low and would open the door for additional gains near-term. Closes below Monday's low crossing at 6865.00 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 7143.25. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 7344.39. First support is the 87% retracement level of the February low crossing at 6559.68. Second support is February's low crossing at 6385.25.
The December S&P 500 was higher overnight as it extended the rally off October's low. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the aforementioned rally, the 50-day moving average crossing at 2837.30 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 2711.93 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is the October 17th reaction high crossing at 2823.00. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2837.30. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 2711.93. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the April-September-rally rally crossing at 2628.96.
INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"
INTEREST RATES: December T-bonds were higher overnight and working on a possible key reversal up as it consolidates some of the decline off October's high. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 138-09 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December extends the decline off October's high, October's low crossing at 136-16 is the next downside target. First resistance is October's high crossing at 139-28. Second resistance is the September 28th reaction high crossing at 141-04. First support is the overnight low crossing at 136.24. Second support is October's low crossing at 136-16.
December T-notes was higher in overnight trading and working a potential key reversal up as it consolidates some of the decline off October's high. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning neutral to bullish hinting that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 118.225 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December extends the decline off October's high, October's low crossing at 117.135 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 118.225. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 119.060. First support is the overnight low crossing at 117.230. Second support is October's low crossing at 117.135.
ENERGY MARKETS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=energy"
ENERGY MARKETS: DecemberNymex crude oil was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off October's high. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible near-term. If December extends the decline off October's high, the 50% retracement level of the 2017-2018-rally crossing at 61.07 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 67.12 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 64.64. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 67.12. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 61.31. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2017-2018-rally crossing at 61.07.
December heating oil was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off October's high. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that a short-term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 227.09 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. If December extends the aforementioned decline, the 38% retracement level of the 2017-2018-rally crossing at 208.29 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 223.31. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 227.09. First support is Monday's low crossing at 215.63. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the 2017-2018-rally crossing at 208.29.
December unleaded gas was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off October's high. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible near-term. If December extends the decline off October's high, the 62% retracement level of the 2017-2018-decline crossing at 162.09 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 182.57 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted.First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 174.55. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 182.57. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 166.10. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the 2017-2018-decline crossing at 162.09.
December Henry natural gas was higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off October's high, the 50% retracement level of the 2014-2016-rally crossing at 3.804 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.307 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 3.576. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of 2014-2016-rally crossing at 3.804. First support is the bottom of Monday's gap crossing at 3.313. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.307.
CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"
CURRENCIES:The December Dollar was lower overnight as it extends the decline off October's high. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 95.80 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If December renews the rally off September's low, weekly resistance crossing at 97.83 is the next upside target. First resistance is October's high crossing at 96.98. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 97.83. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 95.80. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 95.08.
The December Euro was higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 114.98 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December resumes the decline off September's high, the 87% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 113.54 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 114.98. Second resistance is the October 16th reaction high crossing at 116.78. First support is the 75% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 113.54. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 111.15.
The December British Pound was higher overnight as it extends the rally off October's low. The high-range trade in the overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session beings trading.Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off October's low, October's high crossing at 1.3297 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.2944 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 1.3198. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 1.3297. First support is October's low crossing at 1.2722. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 1.2632.
The December Swiss Franc was higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0068 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December resumes the decline off September's high, weekly support crossing at 0.9921 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0068. Second resistance is the October 15th reaction high crossing at 1.0212. First support is October's low crossing at 0.9946. Second support is weekly support crossing at 0.9921.
The December Canadian Dollar was higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish hinting that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 77.18 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December resumes the decline off October's high, September's low crossing at 75.75 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 77.18. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 77.51. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at 75.98. Second support is September's low crossing at 75.75.
The December Japanese Yen was higher overnight and working on a potential key reversal up. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off October's high, October's low crossing at 0.0877 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0894 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is October's high crossing at 0.0901. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 0.0912. First support is the overnight low crossing at 0.0881. Second support is October's low crossing at 0.0877.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"
PRECIOUS METALS: December gold was higher overnight as it extends the trading range of the past four-weeks. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. If December resumes the rally off October's low, the 38% retracement level of the April-August-Decline crossing at 1251.30 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 1213.30 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is October's high crossing at 1246.00. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the April-August-Decline crossing at 1251.30. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1213.30. Second support is October's low crossing at 1186.00.
December silver was higher overnight as it extends this fall's trading range. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 14.950 would mark an upside breakout of the aforementioned trading range while renewing the rally off September's low. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 14.255 would confirm a downside breakout of the aforementioned trading range while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 14.950. Second resistance is the August 28th reaction high crossing at 15.070. First support is the reaction low crossing at 14.255. Second support is September's low crossing at 13.965.
December copper was slightly higher overnight. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off last-Thursday's low, September's high crossing at 287.10 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 273.22 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is September's high crossing at 287.10. Second resistance is the July 5th gap crossing at 293.10. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 264.25. Second support is September's low crossing at 258.00.
GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains
December corn was steady to fractionally lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. If December resumes the rally off September's low, the 50% retracement level of the May-September-decline crossing at 3.85 3/4 is the next upside target. If December renews the decline off October's high, the reaction low crossing at 3.54 1/2 is the next downside target. First resistance is October's high crossing at 3.78 1/2. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the May-September-decline crossing at 3.85 3/4. First support is the reaction low crossing at 3.60 1/4. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 3.54 1/2.
December wheat was higher overnight. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.14 3/4 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 5.04 1/2 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. If December resumes the decline off October's high, the December-2017 low crossing at 4.68 1/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.14 3/4. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 5.27 1/4. First support is October's low crossing at 4.85 1/2. Second support is the December-2017 low crossing at 4.68 1/4.
December Kansas City Wheat closed up 3 1/4-cents at 5.08.
December Kansas City wheat closed higher on Tuesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off October's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.17 1/4 is the next upside target. If December renews the decline off October's high, October's low crossing at 4.84 1/2 is the next downside target.First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.17 1/4. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 5.33 1/4. First support is October's low crossing at 4.84 1/2. Second support is the December-2017 low crossing at 4.78 1/4.
December Minneapolis wheat was higher overnight as it extends the rally off October's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the aforementioned rally, October's high crossing at 6.02 1/4 is the next upside target. December resumes the decline off October's high, September's low crossing at 5.60 1/4 is the next downside target. If First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 5.90. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 6.02 1/4. First support is October's low crossing at 5.65 3/4. Second support is September's low crossing at 5.60 1/4.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
November soybeans were slightly higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If November extends the aforementioned rally, the 38% retracement level of the May-September-decline crossing at 9.07 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 8.52 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is October's high crossing at 8.92. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the May-September-decline crossing at 9.07. First support is October's low crossing at 8.32 1/4. Second support is September's low crossing at 8.12 1/4.
December soybean meal was steady to slightly higher overnight. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 312.80 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December resumes the decline off October's high, September's low crossing at 301.60 is the next downside target. First resistance is October's high crossing at 327.30. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the May-September-decline crossing at 3.36 1/4. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at 302.00. Second support is September's low crossing at 301.60.
December soybean oil was higher in overnight trading. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December resumes the decline off October's high, September's low crossing at 27.13 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 28.65 would confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 28.65. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 30.01. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at 27.75. Second support is September's low crossing at 27.13.
LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock
December hogs closed down $3.00 at $54.10.
December hogs closed limit down on Tuesday and below the 20-day moving average crossing at 56.06 confirming that a short-term top has been posted. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends today's decline, October's low crossing at 51.27 is the next downside target. If December renews the rally off October's low, June's high crossing at 60.75 is the next upside target. First resistance is October's high crossing at 60.20. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 60.75. First support is today's low crossing at 54.10. Second support is October's low crossing at 51.27.
December cattle closed up $0.10 at 115.43.
December cattle closed higher on Tuesday as it consolidated some of Monday's decline. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off October's high, the 50% retracement level of the April-October-rally crossing at 113.34 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Friday's high crossing at 117.85 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 118.80. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 119.75. First support is the 38% retracement level of the April-October-rally crossing at 114.85. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the April-October-rally crossing at 113.34.
November Feeder cattle closed up $0.48 at $149.98.
November Feeder cattle closed higher due to short covering on Tuesday as it consolidated some of Monday's decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remains neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If November extends today's decline, the 62% retracement level of the May-August-rally crossing at 146.54 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 154.06 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 154.06. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 157.05. First support is Monday's low crossing at 149.03. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the May-August-rally crossing at 146.54.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
December coffee closed lower on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below last-Wednesday's low crossing at 11.13 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If December resumes the rally off September's low, the 87% retracement level of the May-September-decline crossing at 12.68 is the next upside target.
December cocoa closed higher on Tuesday as it extends the rally off October's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off October's low, July's high crossing at 26.07 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 22.03 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.
March sugar closed lower on Tuesday as it extended the decline off October's high. The low-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off October's high, the reaction low crossing at 12.62 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 13.46 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.
December cotton closed lower on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off October's low, the June-July downtrend line crossing near 81.08 is the next upside target. If December resumes decline off October's high, October's low crossing at 75.37 is the next downside target.
Thanks very much tallpine!