Weather Wednesday
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Started by metmike - Oct. 31, 2018, 10:47 a.m.

Happy Halloween. Do something scary today! Seriously, don't just think about it for a moment......do it.

 Scroll down and  enjoy the latest comprehensive weather to the max!!


The latest rain forecasts for the next week are below.

Big rains Southern to Eastern Cornbelt with this event. More rain events, starting with the WCB over the weekend but wettest in the East.


Day 1 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_94qwbg.gif?1526306199054

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_94qwbg.gif?1531339983148

Day 2 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_98qwbg.gif?1528293750112


http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_98qwbg.gif?1531340045174


Day 3 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_99qwbg.gif?1528293842764

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_99qwbg.gif?1531340092706



Days 4-5 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1531339379

 Days 6-7 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/97ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/97ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1531339379

7 Day Total precipitation below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.govcdx /qpf/p168i.gif?1530796126






http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif?1530796126

                    


Comments
By metmike - Oct. 31, 2018, 10:49 a.m.
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Excessive Rain threat

Large area from southwest to northeast......shifts to Northeast by late Thursday.


Current Day 1 ForecastCurrent Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Forecast


Day 1 Threat Area in Text Format  



Current Day 2 ForecastCurrent Day 2 Excessive Rainfall Forecast


Day 3 forecast below

Current Day 3 Excessive Rainfall Forecast

                                    


     

Severe Storm Risk.

Far south.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/

Current Day 1 Outlook
        1300 UTC Day 1 Outlook             
         
          Current Day 2 Outlook
          0600 UTC Day 2 Outlook               
      
          Current Day 3 Outlook
          0600 UTC Day 3 Outlook               
     
          Current Day 4-8 Outlook
          Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
By metmike - Oct. 31, 2018, 10:50 a.m.
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Here are the latest hazards across the country.   Green is flooding. Brown is wind, Gray is fog.  Reddish is a red flag advisory. Purple/Pink is cold/Winter weather.

See the rest at the link below.

                          https://www.spc.noaa.gov/  Go to "hazards"                                                                                       

                   

Low Temperatures Thursday Morning

                                          

             

By metmike - Oct. 31, 2018, 10:52 a.m.
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High Temperatures today and Thursday.


Warm air in the Southeast. Warm in the West. Near average in the Center.

   

               

By metmike - Oct. 31, 2018, 10:55 a.m.
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Highs for days 3-7:

 
Not much change....until later in this period, then a strong cold blast hits.


http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY3_MAX_filled.gif

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY4_MAX_filled.gifhttp://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY5_MAX_filled.gifhttp://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY6_MAX_filled.gifhttp://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY7_MAX_filled.gif

            


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By metmike - Oct. 31, 2018, 10:58 a.m.
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How do these days 3-7 temperatures compare to average at this time of year?

 Mildest West. Not too far from average.

Cold blast in the Plains/Midwest late in this period will result in the area and magnitude of blue's to increase tomorrow and the rest of the week on this map.


http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/hpcmaxwbg.gif


Low Temperature Departures:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/hpcminwbg.gif

By metmike - Oct. 31, 2018, 11 a.m.
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Surface features for the same 3-7 day period:


Very active.  Major cold air intrusion early next week!!!

  https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif

By metmike - Oct. 31, 2018, 11:04 a.m.
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Current Dew Points

 

Moisture has surged northward!!!

Current Dew Points

                                    


     

Latest radar loop


Active area of showers moving from soutwest to northeast, heavy at times.


http://www.nws.noaa.gov/radar_tab.php

Doppler Radar National Mosaic Loop

                          

Full resolution version loop (3400x1700 pixels - 2.2mb)
 

Central Great Lakes sector loop

      


Rains the past 24 hours


                                    


    

You can go to this link to see rain totals from recent time periods:


https://water.weather.gov/precip/


                              Go to precipitation, then scroll down to pick a time frame. Hit states to get the borders to see locations better. Under products, you can hit "observed" or "Percent of normal"      

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++


     Soil moisture anomaly:


Still  wet on this particular metric in an enormous area.  Getting  MUCH wetter in the East  this week and next week. Rain in the forecast in the WCB this weekend.http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Soilmst_Monitoring/Figures/daily/curr.w.anom.daily.gif


+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Rains compared to average for the last 7, 14, 30 and 60 days. 

Usually not updated for previous day until late the next day.


Note how incredibly wet it's been over the past 60 days over eastern 2/3rds of the country! Been pretty dry though the past 14 days.........that's changing.

Texas has been the wet state the past 30 days.



https://www.atmos.illinois.edu/~snodgrss/Ag_Wx.html

http://weather.agribleservices.com/ahps/7_day_percent.png


http://weather.agribleservices.com/ahps/14_day_percent.png

http://weather.agribleservices.com/ahps/30_day_percent.pnghttp://weather.agribleservices.com/ahps/60_day_percent.png

By metmike - Oct. 31, 2018, 11:15 a.m.
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The top map is the Canadian ensemble average, the maps below are the individual members that make up the average


End of week 2....................0Z ensembles from Wednesday. Much different today. The ensemble mean looks benign but is deceptive. The mean/average of all the members looks pretty zonal but with some troughing over much of the country. .......nothing new there.

However, the individual members tell a different story. Almost none of them look like their average because so many have completely opposite solutions that average out to something in the middle.

So very few of them think the solution will be what the mean shows.  This wide disparity means uncertainty and also increasing chances of turning much colder because we have a few members bringing in the cold northern stream. At the end of week 2, there will be bitter cold in N/C Canada, so a source region is available within striking distance if the  delivery pattern becomes favorable.


++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Each member is like the parent, Canadian model operational model.......with a slight tweek/variation in parameters. Since we know the equations to represent the physics of the atmosphere in the models are not perfect, its useful to vary some of the equations that are uncertain(can make a difference) to see if it effects the outcome and how.

The average of all these variations(ensembles) often yields a better tool for forecasting. It's always more consistent. The individual operational model, like each individual ensemble member can vary greatly from run to run.........and represent an extreme end of the spectrum at times. The ensemble average of all the members, because it averages the extremes.............from opposite ends of the spectrum.........changes much less from run to run.

360h GZ 500 forecast valid on Nov 15, 2018 00 UTC

GZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecast

By metmike - Oct. 31, 2018, 11:18 a.m.
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Here are the 0Z GFS ensemble, individual solutions at 360 hours(2 weeks).

Still significant disagreement in a key area. How pronounced will an upper level ridge in the vicinity of Western Canada be/and where will it be located?

If it does amplify greatly, then downstream troughing will lead to cold air intrusions. If it doesn't, then a strong Pacific jet stream blows zonally and keeps the US mild.  



http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSHGT_0z/f360.gif

By metmike - Oct. 31, 2018, 11:23 a.m.
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Latest, updated graph/forecast for AO and NAO here, including an explanation of how to interpret them. Both had been predicted to be close to zero at the end of 2 weeks on Monday.....leaning towards milder weather. This has changed.

They are both more negative today, especially the AO(the NAO is closer to zero but several solutions offering a solid negative).  This is in tandem with an increasing chance for the correct set up for cold air from high latitudes to have the chance to move south towards middle latitudes.

There is a big spread in the forecast, so greater uncertainty at the end of week 2 than usual and that period is often low confidence already. 

Just like weather maps having less skill in the later periods, the same is the case with the AO/NAO.


https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/15793/

                                    

By metmike - Oct. 31, 2018, 11:25 a.m.
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National Weather Service 6-10 day, 8-14 day outlooks.


Updated early this afternoon.




Temperature Probability

6 to 10 Day Outlook - Temperature Probability
 Precipitation Probability

  6 to 10 Day Outlook - Precipitation Probability

  

the 8-14 day outlooks
ArchivesAnalogsLines-Only FormatGIS Data

Temperature Probability

8 to 14 Day Outlook - Temperature Probability
8 to 14 Day Outlook - Precipitation Probability
By metmike - Oct. 31, 2018, 12:39 p.m.
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The low skill, longer range CFS model for weeks 3-4.


Very warm and dry across the USA. In contrast, bitter cold is pooling into Northern and Central Canada with cross polar flow coming from Siberia and heading north to south in northern parts of North America. 

Should the flow pattern continue to become more favorable for delivery of this frigid air farther south, there would be a major cold outbreak into the United States.


Low residential heating across the US.  Don't take this one to the bank.


Check in tomorrow to read something different............."low skill" (-:

 


http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/weekly/images/wk3.wk4_latest.NAsfcT.gif

Precip below:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/weekly/images/wk3.wk4_latest.NAprec.gif

By metmike - Oct. 31, 2018, 1:29 p.m.
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The Madden Julian Oscillator(MJO), which is in phase 8 right now,  will be strengthening a bit(very weak right now) and going thru phases 1-2-3, then be at phase 4 at the end of 2 weeks.

This would  cause an increase in chances for warm weather in the US, especially the Central part of the country.

However, the MJO is  a measurement in the southern stream. If the northern stream, dominated the the AO and NAO is much stronger than the southern stream, it doesn't matter  what phase the MJO is in because the MJO  signal will be diverted to the south(stay closer to the tropics).


http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjoupdate.pdf

By metmike - Oct. 31, 2018, 7:23 p.m.
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The just out 18z operational GFS captures the essence of the current cold risk that the market is trading right now(dialing in). 

As mentioned earlier, we have an increasingly negative AO, which creates an environment more favorable for cold air to be transported from higher latitudes to lower latitudes.

In a addition, during week 2, as mentioned, we have a strong cross polar flow bringing the coldest air on the planet right now, from Siberia across the polar regions, then onward into northern parts of North America.............northern Canada at least, if not even farther south.

This last run, is looking pretty extreme and is  going to look different than the next few and an individual solution like this should be taken with a grain of salt. However, it shows the mother load of frigid air making it across Canada, with the southern edge coming across the US border during week 2. 


In order for this to happen with such gusto, we would need a piece of the Polar Vortex to come pretty far south, into Southeast Canada, with the northern jet stream on its backside aimed towards the Great Lakes.

The next run will probably look different as this run may have latched onto something that it over amplifies. However, the other models have been trending in this direction for the last 36 hours(European model longer than that)............so a  weaker version of this is very possible......to increasingly likely if it continues to be the trend.

One thing to note. There may be a sharp contrast between the frigid Arctic air to the north and much warmer air to the south.  If the Polar vortex sets up in Central Canada, instead with bitter cold, the US could end up very mild at the same time. 

If that happened, which is also possible, then the bullishness of the weather forecast would be peaking right now with this threat.

              

      gfs_namer_300_200_wnd_ht
      gfs_namer_300_200_wnd_ht_s.gif   
      gfs_namer_300_500_vort_ht
      gfs_namer_300_500_vort_ht_s.gif   
      gfs_namer_300_1000_500_thick
      gfs_namer_300_1000_500_thick_s.gif   
      gfs_namer_300_850_temp_ht
      gfs_namer_300_850_temp_ht_s.gif