KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Wednesday, October 31, 2018
7:00 AM ET. MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey
Composite Idx (previous 337.8)
Composite Idx, W/W% (previous +4.9%)
Purchase Idx-SA (previous 228.4)
Purchase Idx-SA, W/W% (previous +2.0%)
Refinance Idx (previous 919.6)
Refinance Idx, W/W% (previous +9.7%)
8:15 AM ET. October ADP National Employment Report
Private Sector Jobs, Net Chg (previous +230000)
8:30 AM ET. 3rd Quarter Employment Cost Index
ECI, Q/Q% (previous +0.6%)
ECI, Y/Y% (previous +2.8%)
9:45 AM ET. October ISM-Chicago Business Survey - Chicago PMI
PMI-Adj (previous 60.4)
10:00 AM ET. October Online Help Wanted Index
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Crude Oil Stocks (Bbl) (previous 422.787M)
Crude Oil Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +6.346M)
Gasoline Stocks (Bbl) (previous 229.33M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -4.826M)
Distillate Stocks (Bbl) (previous 130.376M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -2.262M)
Refinery Usage (previous 89.2%)
Total Prod Supplied (Bbl/day) (previous 21.491M)
Total Prod Supplied, Net Chg (Bbl/day) (previous +1.531M)
Thursday, November 1, 2018
7:30 AM ET. October Challenger Job-Cut Report
Job Cuts, M/M% (previous +43.7%)
8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales
Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 377.5)
Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 213.7K)
Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 448.6K)
8:30 AM ET. 3rd Quarter Preliminary Productivity & Costs
Non-Farm Productivity, Q/Q% (previous +2.9%)
Unit Labor Costs (previous -0.9%)
8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims
Jobless Claims (previous 215K)
Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous +5K)
Continuing Claims (previous 1636000)
Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous -5K)
9:45 AM ET. October US Manufacturing PMI
PMI, Mfg (previous 55.6)
9:45 AM ET. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
10:00 AM ET. September Construction Spending - Construction Put in Place
New Construction (previous +0.1%)
Residential Construction
10:00 AM ET. October ISM Manufacturing Report on Business
Manufacturing PMI (previous 59.8)
Prices Idx (previous 66.9)
Employment Idx (previous 58.8)
Inventories (previous 53.3)
New Orders Idx (previous 61.8)
Production Idx (previous 63.9)
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 3095B)
Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous +58B)
4:00 PM ET. October Domestic Auto Industry Sales
Auto Sales Annualized (previous 17.44M)
4:30 PM ET. Money Stock Measures
4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings
4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings
Friday, November 2, 2018
8:30 AM ET. October U.S. Employment Report
Non-Farm Payrolls (previous +134K)
Unemployment Rate (previous 3.7%)
Avg Hourly Earnings (USD) (previous 27.24)
Avg Hourly Earnings-Net Chg (USD) (previous +0.08)
Avg Hourly Earnings, M/M% (previous +0.29%)
Avg Hourly Earnings, Y/Y% (previous +2.8%)
Overall Workweek (previous 34.5)
Overall Workweek Net Chg (previous +0)
Government Payrolls (previous +13K)
Private Payroll (previous +121K)
Participation Rate (previous 62.7%)
Non-Farm Payrolls Bench Net Chg
8:30 AM ET. September U.S. International Trade in Goods & Services
Trade Balance (USD) (previous -53.24B)
Exports (USD) (previous 209.43B)
Exports, M/M% (previous -0.8%)
Imports (USD) (previous 262.67B)
Imports, M/M% (previous +0.6%)
9:45 AM ET. October ISM-NY Report on Business
Business Index (previous 72.5)
10:00 AM ET. September Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories & Orders (M3)
Total Orders, M/M% (previous +2.3%)
Orders, Ex-Defense, M/M% (previous +1.3%)
Orders, Ex-Transport, M/M% (previous +0.1%)
Durable Goods, M/M% (previous +4.5%)
Durable Goods, M/M% (previous +4.4%)
11:00 AM ET. October Global Manufacturing PMI
PMI, Mfg (previous 52.2)
The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=indexes"
The STOCK INDEXES:The December NASDAQ 100 was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off October's high. The Nasdaq is off 12.4%, which would be its largest one-month drop since October 2008. The Dow is down 7.6% in October, which would mark its largest monthly decline since May 2010. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish hinting that a short-term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 7117.74 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December extends the decline off October's high, the 87% retracement level of the April-September-rally crossing at 6559.68 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 6965.07. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 7117.74. First support is the 87% retracement level of the February low crossing at 6559.68. Second support is February's low crossing at 6385.25.
The December S&P 500 was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off October's high. If the S&P 500 index ends lower in either of the final two sessions of October, it will mark its 17th down day, representing that the highest number of down days in a month since April 1970, according to Dow Jones Market Data. The broad-market index’s current number of declining sessions already ranks as the most since 2008. The S&P 500 is down 9.4% this month, which would be its worst monthly loss since February of 2009. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish hinting that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 2767.67 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. If December extends the decline off October's high, April's low crossing at 2583.60 is the next downside target.First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 2709.66. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2767.67. First support is the 87% retracement level of the April-September-rally rally crossing at 2628.96. Second support is April's low crossing at 2583.60.
INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"
INTEREST RATES: December T-bonds were lower overnight as it extends the decline off Monday's high. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 138-08, which coincides with October's uptrend line would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December renews the rally off October's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 140-21 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 139-28. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 140-17. First support is the reaction low crossing at 137.15. Second support is October's low crossing at 136-16.
December T-notes was lower in late-overnight trading as it consolidates some of the rally off October's low. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 118.074 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December extends the aforementioned rally, the 62% retracement level of the August-October-decline crossing at 119.130 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 119.060. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the August-October-decline crossing at 119.130. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 118.094. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 118.062.
ENERGY MARKETS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=energy"
ENERGY MARKETS: DecemberNymex crude oil was steady to slightly higher overnight as it continues to consolidate some of the decline off October's high. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible near-term. If December extends the decline off October's high, August's low crossing at 63.48 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 70.00 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 67.43. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 70.00. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 65.33. Second support is August's low crossing at 63.48.
December heating oil was higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish hinting that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 232.48 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December resumes this month's decline, September's low crossing at 219.63 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 232.48. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 245.41. First support is September's low crossing at 219.63. Second support is August's low crossing at 208.57.
December unleaded gas was slightly higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning neutral to bullish hinting that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 192.15 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted.If December extends the decline off October's high, the 50% retracement level of the 2017-2018-decline crossing at 172.17 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 183.82. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 192.15. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 176.44. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2017-2018-decline crossing at 172.17.
December Henry natural gas was higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. If December extends the decline off October's high, the 50% retracement level of the September-October-rally crossing at 3.125 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.268 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is October's high crossing at 3.368. Second resistance is the July-2015 high crossing at 3.457. First support is the 50% retracement level of the September-October-rally crossing at 3.125. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.112.
CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"
CURRENCIES:The December Dollar was steady to slightly lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling sideways to higher prices are still possible near-term. If December extends the rally off September's low, weekly resistance crossing at 97.83 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 95.63 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 96.85. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 97.83. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 96.13. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 95.63.
The December Euro was lower overnight as it extends the decline off September's high. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off September's high, the 75% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 113.54 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 115.27 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 115.27. Second resistance is the October 16th reaction high crossing at 116.78. First support is the overnight low crossing at 113.71. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 113.54.
The December British Pound was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off October's high. The high-range trade in the overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher prices are possible near-term. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off October's high, the 87% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 1.2632 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3046 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.2912. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3046. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 1.2722. Second support is August's low crossing at 1.2735.
The December Swiss Franc was lower overnight as it extends the decline off September's high. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off September's high, weekly support crossing at 0.9921 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0102 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0102. Second resistance is the October 15th reaction high crossing at 1.0212. First support is the overnight low crossing at 0.9979. Second support is weekly support crossing at 0.9921.
The December Canadian Dollar was lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off October's high, September's low crossing at 75.75 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Wednesday's high crossing at 77.18 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 77.18. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 77.51. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 76.04. Second support is September's low crossing at 75.75.
The December Japanese Yen was lower overnight as it extended Tuesday's downside breakout of the trading range of the past four-weeks. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends this week's decline, October's low crossing at 0.0877 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Friday's high crossing at 0.0901 would confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 0.0901. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 0.0912. First support is the reaction low crossing at 0.0889. Second support is October's low crossing at 0.0877.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"
PRECIOUS METALS: December gold was lower overnight as it extends this week's setback. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 1210.70 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December resumes the rally off October's low, the 38% retracement level of the April-August-Decline crossing at 1251.30 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 1246.00. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the April-August-Decline crossing at 1251.30. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1221.30. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1210.70.
December silver was lower overnight as it extends this month's trading range. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 14.255 would confirm a downside trading range breakout while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 14.950 would mark an upside breakout of the aforementioned trading range while renewing the rally off September's low. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 14.950. Second resistance is the August 28th reaction high crossing at 15.070. First support is the reaction low crossing at 14.255. Second support is September's low crossing at 13.965.
December copper was slightly lower overnight as it extends this week's decline. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends this week's decline, September's low crossing at 258.00 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 275.77 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is October's high crossing at 287.10. Second resistance is the July 5th gap crossing at 293.10. First support is the overnight low crossing at 265.85. Second support is September's low crossing at 258.00.
GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains
December corn was lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible near-term. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. If December extends the decline off October's high, the reaction low crossing at 3.54 1/2 is the next downside target. If December resumes the rally off September's low, the 50% retracement level of the May-September-decline crossing at 3.85 3/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is October's high crossing at 3.78 1/2. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the May-September-decline crossing at 3.85 3/4. First support is the reaction low crossing at 3.60 1/4. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 3.54 1/2.
December wheat was lower overnight. The low-range close sets the stage for a possible steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December resumes the decline off October's high, the December-2017 low crossing at 4.68 1/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.10 1/4 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.10 1/4. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.17 1/4. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 4.85 1/2. Second support is the December-2017 low crossing at 4.68 1/4.
December Kansas City Wheat closed down 6 3/4-cents at 4.94 3/4.
December Kansas City wheat closed lower on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.13 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. If December resumes the decline off October's high, the December-2017 low crossing at 4.78 1/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.13. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.22. First support is last Friday's low crossing at 4.85 1/4. Second support isthe December-2017 low crossing at 4.78 1/4.
December Minneapolis wheat was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. December extends the decline off October's high, September's low crossing at 5.60 1/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.85 3/4 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.85 3/4. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 6.02 1/4. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 5.69. Second support is September's low crossing at 5.60 1/4.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
November soybeans were steady to fractionally higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off October's high. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible near-term. If November extends the decline off October's high, September's low crossing at 8.12 1/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 8.59 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is October's high crossing at 8.92. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the May-September-decline crossing at 9.07. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 8.32 1/4. Second support is September's low crossing at 8.12 1/4.
December soybean meal was steady to slightly lower overnight. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off October's high, September's low crossing at 301.60 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 314.00 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is October's high crossing at 327.30. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the May-September-decline crossing at 3.36 1/4. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 303.50. Second support is September's low crossing at 301.60.
December soybean oil was lower in overnight trading. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends this month's decline, September's low crossing at 27.13 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 28.97 would confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 28.97. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 30.01. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 27.75. Second support is September's low crossing at 27.13.
Thanks again Mr. Dependable.......tallpine!