Excessive Rain threat

Starts on Wednesday.

Current Day 1 Forecast

Day 1 Threat Area in Text Format  

Current Day 2 Forecast

Day 3 forecast below

Severe Storm Risk.

Far south.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/

Current Day 1 Outlook
Current Day 2 Outlook
Current Day 3 Outlook
Current Day 4-8 Outlook

Here are the latest hazards across the country.   Green is flooding. Brown is wind, Gray is fog.  Reddish is a red flag advisory. Purple is cold/Winter weather.

See the rest at the link below.

                          https://www.spc.noaa.gov/  Go to "hazards"                                                                                       

High Temperatures today and Wednesday.

Warm air that was in the West has moved to the east.

Highs for days 3-7:

 
Not much change.  

How do these days 3-7 temperatures compare to average at this time of year?

 Mildest West. Not too far from average Midwest.

Low Temperature Departures:

Surface features for the same 3-7 day period:

Very active.  

Current Dew Points

Moisture is surging northward!!!

Latest radar loop

Will be picking up. 

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/radar_tab.php

Rains the past 24 hours

You can go to this link to see rain totals from recent time periods:

https://water.weather.gov/precip/

                              Go to precipitation, then scroll down to pick a time frame. Hit states to get the borders to see locations better. Under products, you can hit "observed" or "Percent of normal"      

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     Soil moisture anomaly:

Still  wet on this particular metric in an enormous area. Drying will continue for the Western Midwest overall this week. Getting  MUCH wetter in the East  this week and next week.

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Rains compared to average for the last 7, 14, 30 and 60 days. 

Usually not updated for previous day until late the next day.

Note how incredibly wet it's been over the past 60 days over eastern 2/3rds of the country! Been pretty dry though the past 14 days.

Texas has been the wet state the past 30 days.

https://www.atmos.illinois.edu/~snodgrss/Ag_Wx.html

The top map is the Canadian ensemble average, the maps below are the individual members that make up the average

End of week 2....................0Z ensembles from Tuesday.  Similar to the last 3 days in some ways but with subtle changes. The mean/average of all the members looks pretty zonal but with less troughing over much of the country. Cold air from higher latitudes is still cut off  from most solutions but on a minority, with a much farther south jet stream, it becomes a factor in parts of the US.  Also the fairly deep southern stream trough somewhere in the US(midsection?) for this period from previous days solutions is less likely.

 Still a mild flow pattern if it turns out similar to the ensemble average.

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Each member is like the parent, Canadian model operational model.......with a slight tweek/variation in parameters. Since we know the equations to represent the physics of the atmosphere in the models are not perfect, its useful to vary some of the equations that are uncertain(can make a difference) to see if it effects the outcome and how.

The average of all these variations(ensembles) often yields a better tool for forecasting. It's always more consistent. The individual operational model, like each individual ensemble member can vary greatly from run to run.........and represent an extreme end of the spectrum at times. The ensemble average of all the members, because it averages the extremes.............from opposite ends of the spectrum............changes much less from run to run.

360h GZ 500 forecast valid on Nov 14, 2018 00 UTC

Here are the 0Z GFS ensemble, individual solutions at 360 hours(2 weeks).

Significant disagreement in a key area. How pronounced will an upper level ridge in Western Canada be or not be?

If it does amplify greatly, then downstream troughing will lead to cold air intrusions. If it doesn't, then a strong Pacific jet stream blows zonally and keeps the US mild. 

Latest, updated graph/forecast for AO and NAO here, including an explanation of how to interpret them. Both have been predicted to be close to zero at the end of 2 weeks the past couple of days.....leaning towards milder weather. With much less spread on Tuesday vs Monday.

One small change is that the AO is leaning negative now and more negative than yesterday. This increases the chance for the correct set up for cold air from high latitudes to have the chance to move south towards middle latitudes.

Just like weather maps having less skill in the later periods, the same is the case with the AO/NAO.

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/15793/

National Weather Service 6-10 day, 8-14 day outlooks.

Updated early this afternoon.

Temperature Probability

Precipitation Probability

the 8-14 day outlooks ArchivesAnalogsLines-Only FormatGIS Data

Temperature Probability

12Z operational European model, day 10......much colder than the other models.