That's the reason I only trade the charts!

I’d reword this as traders and their inability to publicly analyze objectively. That’s why news writers, newsletter writers, and meteorologists should not be allowed to trade. They tend to start talking their book and thus lose their objectivity. The mets at Radiant aren’t allowed to trade, which is obviously a good thing.

Yes, that's human nature. 

Once that you think that you know something, it's MUCH harder to learn something new that contradicts it, vs if you knew nothing.....started with a clean slate.

Additionally, when you publicly state what you think that you know and especially if you are being paid for that opinion or your reputation is at stake, your emotions and bias rev up into high gear in defending what you stated previously.

Many climate scientists, climate model builders other scientists that believe in applying the scientific method, have completely abandoned it because of what they thought they knew 2 decades ago.

Ignoring what  new information is telling them and instead, interpreting new information so that it  supports the old position. 

Meteorologists can't get away with that. If we forecast rain on Thursday and it doesn't rain anywhere in the forecast area on Thursday, you are busted.

In climate science, instead of predicting days ahead, you are predicting decades even a century from now. Heck, everyone that gets your forecast today for the year 2100 will be dead then. A climate scientist predicting X type of weather/climate in the year 2030, never has to be held accountable. 

What has been happening, is that as we approach 2030, instead of acknowledging, at least a partial bust, excuses are made(hidden heat in the oceans-natural cycles of unknown origin interferred) and the goal post are just moved to the year 2040 with the same forecast. 

The honest approach would be "ok, our models were too warm, CO2 accelerated higher but the warming didn't...........the greenhouse gas warming was less than what was in our models"  

It's all just computer simulations of the weather/climate using known physical laws of the atmosphere, represented by mathematical equations for distant time frames.

CO2 is a greenhouse gas and the physics tell us with certainty that it will lead to some warming. Global Climate models are useful too in providing guidance.........but that   should be getting adjusted based on new information we've learned/measured the past 20 years. 

However, presenting the models skill as much greater than it really is, especially when its busting on temperature is not the scientific method.  Neither is only presenting one biased side............that's personal and political.

Jim M:

It's a great example of watching who you listen to and how it influences your trading.

A very long time ago I concluded that I needed to ignore anything "they" said and go only by what the market participants actually were doing.

metmike:

Additionally, when you publicly state what you think that you know and especially if you are being paid for that opinion or your reputation is at stake, your emotions and bias rev up into high gear in defending what you stated previously.

I remember reading Richard Thaler's book - I think back in the early 90s.  A simplified example is to consider a person buying a car.  The choice is down to either a Ford or a Chevy.  He is pretty much bias free - up until he makes the choice and writes the check.  After that, his mind will accept only facts that support his choice.

In trading, I have arrived at the conclusion that a person can have the ability to be either a good analyst - or a good trader.  Being both a competent analyst and a competent trader is exceedingly rare.  The hard-wiring in our brains are much different for each of the two things, IMHO.  A competent analyst needs to be obsessive about the data he uses.  In modeling a market, and having anything useful come out when applying the model to an out-of-sample data set, all possible patterns need to be included.  Paralysis can set in when it comes to trading the model, since the real time data will never look just like the past patterns.  The hard-wiring of the brain of an analyst will always be second guessing the model.  This is good as an analyst, but poison as a trader.

One of the best models I have is good because it is always telling me to do what I least want to do.

"Paralysis can set in when it comes to trading the model, since the real time data will never look just like the past patterns.  The hard-wiring of the brain of an analyst will always be second guessing the model.  This is good as an analyst, but poison as a trader."

Words of wisdom!

cfdr,

You must have read hundreds of books. I like reading scientific/medical articles/papers and journals or history/sports.........stuff like that but rarely read a book.