Weather Saturday
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Started by metmike - Oct. 27, 2018, 10:43 a.m.

It's October 27th.  A new day! Do something special for somebody to remember today! Seriously, don't just think about it for a moment......do it.

 Scroll down and  enjoy the latest comprehensive weather to the max!!


The latest rain forecasts for the next week are below.  Dry pattern for Plains to Western Cornbelt. Turning very wet next week to the east.

Big rains next week Southern to Eastern Corbelt.


Day 1 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_94qwbg.gif?1526306199054

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_94qwbg.gif?1531339983148

Day 2 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_98qwbg.gif?1528293750112


http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_98qwbg.gif?1531340045174


Day 3 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_99qwbg.gif?1528293842764

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_99qwbg.gif?1531340092706



Days 4-5 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1531339379

 Days 6-7 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/97ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/97ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1531339379

7 Day Total precipitation below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.govcdx /qpf/p168i.gif?1530796126






http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif?1530796126

                    


Comments
By metmike - Oct. 27, 2018, 10:49 a.m.
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Here are the latest hazards across the country.   Bluish Purple is a Winter Weather advisory. Pink is a Gale advisory. Purple a storm warning. Brown is wind, Gray is fog.

                          https://www.spc.noaa.gov/  Go to "hazards"                                                                                       

                   

Low Temperatures Thursday Morning

                                          

             

By metmike - Oct. 27, 2018, 10:51 a.m.
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High Temperatures today and Sunday.


Very chilly Midwest to Northeast to East Coast. Warm West to Plains today.

   


                  

By metmike - Oct. 27, 2018, 10:53 a.m.
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Highs for days 3-7:

 

Big warm up early in this period ahead of a big storm, then a big chill behind the storm.



http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY3_MAX_filled.gif

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY4_MAX_filled.gifhttp://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY5_MAX_filled.gifhttp://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY6_MAX_filled.gifhttp://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY7_MAX_filled.gif

By metmike - Oct. 27, 2018, 10:56 a.m.
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How do these days 3-7 temperatures compare to average at this time of year?


Anomalies shifting  .........,colder in the Plains but warming in the East.


http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/hpcmaxwbg.gif


Low Temperature Departures:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/hpcminwbg.gif

By metmike - Oct. 27, 2018, 10:59 a.m.
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Surface features for the same 3-7 day period:


Becoming much more active. Especially wet from the Eastern Cornbelt to East Coast. 

 


https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif

By metmike - Oct. 27, 2018, 11:01 a.m.
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Current Dew Points

 

Current Dew Points

                                    


     

Latest radar loop.

Biggest action Northeast!


http://www.nws.noaa.gov/radar_tab.php

Doppler Radar National Mosaic Loop

                                    


Rains the past 24 hours


                                    


    

You can go to this link to see rain totals from recent time periods:


https://water.weather.gov/precip/


                              Go to precipitation, then scroll down to pick a time frame. Hit states to get the borders to see locations better. Under products, you can hit "observed" or "Percent of normal"      

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     Soil moisture anomaly:


Still  wet in an enormous area. Drying will continue for the Western Midwest overall the next week.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Soilmst_Monitoring/Figures/daily/curr.w.anom.daily.gif


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Rains compared to average for the last 7, 14, 30 and 60 days. 

Usually not updated for previous day until late the next day.


Note how incredibly wet it's been over the past 60 days over eastern 2/3rds of the country!



https://www.atmos.illinois.edu/~snodgrss/Ag_Wx.html

http://weather.agribleservices.com/ahps/7_day_percent.png


http://weather.agribleservices.com/ahps/14_day_percent.png

http://weather.agribleservices.com/ahps/30_day_percent.pnghttp://weather.agribleservices.com/ahps/60_day_percent.png

By metmike - Oct. 27, 2018, 11:18 a.m.
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The top map is the Canadian ensemble average, the maps below are the individual members that make up the average


End of week 2....................0Z ensembles from Saturday.  The mean/average of all the members looks pretty zonal and mild with slight troughing and an active pattern over most of the country. However, most of the individual members that make up the average show more extreme solutions. Deep trough/upper level low position key to the forecast. If it's farther west, then it mean a wetter solution and possibly warmer in the East.

We have can have the most confidence in a ensemble average when most of its members agree.........more members seem to have a trough West, upper level ridge far Southeast idea.


++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Each member is like the parent, Canadian model operational model.......with a slight tweek/variation in parameters. Since we know the equations to represent the physics of the atmosphere in the models are not perfect, its useful to vary some of the equations that are uncertain(can make a difference) to see if it effects the outcome and how.

The average of all these variations(ensembles) often yields a better tool for forecasting. It's always more consistent. The individual operational model, like each individual ensemble member can vary greatly from run to run.........and represent an extreme end of the spectrum at times. The ensemble average of all the members, because it averages the extremes.............from opposite ends of the spectrum............changes much less from run to run.


360h GZ 500 forecast valid on Nov 11, 2018 00 UTC

GZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecast

By metmike - Oct. 27, 2018, 11:30 a.m.
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Here are the 0Z GFS ensemble, individual solutions at 360 hours(2 weeks).  Deep trough in the Northeast solution on some members earlier in the week from a cold northern stream has only very minor support today............would be a cold "surprise for mid November forecasts that have been mild. This is not my forecast right now.

Overall, there is some aggrement today on a mild flow in the East, potential for a mid latitude trough...........more likely in the West and decent agreement by a majority on  an upper level ridge in the far Southeast...to W. Atlantic. 

Low confidence at this time frame!


http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSHGT_0z/f360.gif

By metmike - Oct. 27, 2018, 11:33 a.m.
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The low skill, longer range CFS model for weeks 3-4.


Larry tells me that the source of this solution is a day old, so I am working on finding a source with the latest solution. Thank you WxFollower!

Similar to the previous solution(just 2 days in a row). Enormous upper level ridge from Alaska to Central Alaska with near record warmth...........that spreads east across the entire US in mid November. 


Check in tomorrow to read something different............."low skill" (-:

 


http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/weekly/images/wk3.wk4_latest.NAsfcT.gif

Precip below:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/weekly/images/wk3.wk4_latest.NAprec.gif

By metmike - Oct. 27, 2018, 11:33 a.m.
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National Weather Service 6-10 day, 8-14 day outlooks.


Updated early this afternoon.  It should  be(high confidence) very wet across much of the country, especially the east. Temps should be warm in the East and chilly farther west.





Temperature Probability

6 to 10 Day Outlook - Temperature Probability
 Precipitation Probability

  6 to 10 Day Outlook - Precipitation Probability

  

the 8-14 day outlooks
ArchivesAnalogsLines-Only FormatGIS Data

Temperature Probability

8 to 14 Day Outlook - Temperature Probability
8 to 14 Day Outlook - Precipitation Probability
By metmike - Oct. 27, 2018, 11:36 a.m.
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Latest, updated graph/forecast for AO and NAO here, including an explanation of how to interpret them. Both are predicted to increase back to positive at the end of 2 weeks and higher than earlier in the week.........which favors a warm weather regime for the mid November time frame that the market is trying to ascertain right now.

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/15793/