Noon maps must have been cooler. NG keeps clawing its way back.
jim,
The 12 GFS was in fact a bit colder, mainly early in the week 2 part of the forecast but the market hit its spike low well over an hour before that started coming out.
We have the next to the last day of expiration coming up in natural gas. This particular day has been noted historically for some extreme spikes, sometimes going in the opposite direction one might think based on the fundamentals or other factors, including weather.
In the distant past, some of my best trades when storage was low at the end of Oct. and Nov. was taking advantage of shorts bailing with sort of panic buying to get out at any price as the front month expired.
In the last decade, we've not gone into Winter with precariously low storage, so this has not happened. If not for the ultra bearish EIA report yesterday, one could speculate that we have the set up of it to "possibly" happen here because storage is 600 bcf less than last year.
I am not predicting that but if we would happen to get a wild spike higher at some point near the close and the weather models suggest the new pattern will be mild in November, I will be looking to sell.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/15976/
By metmike - Oct. 26, 2018, 1:38 p.m.
The 12Z operational GFS came out slightly colder for a few days early in the week 2 period(11-5 to 11-7)(typical for a run to run variation) with no noteworthy pattern changes from the previous runs.
The bounce in natural gas started over 90 minutes before this came out.
Last 12z solution below, then below that, the previous, 6z run solution for that period.
gfs_namer_252_200_wnd_ht | gfs_namer_252_500_vort_ht |
gfs_namer_252_1000_500_thick | gfs_namer_252_850_temp_ht |
6z operational GFS for 264 hours below:
gfs_namer_264_200_wnd_ht | gfs_namer_264_500_vort_ht |
gfs_namer_264_1000_500_thick | gfs_namer_264_850_temp_ht |