It's October 25th. A brand new day! Do something special for somebody to remember today! Seriously, don't just think about it for a moment......do it.
Scroll down and enjoy the latest comprehensive weather to the max!!
The latest rain forecasts for the next week are below. Dry pattern on some days in many places in the Midwest to accelerate harvest this week but we have wetter weather next week.
Some very weak remnants of Willa(that was a hurricane in the E.Pacific earlier this week) are crossing the Gulf States, then will move up the East Coast, then possibly become a Nor'easter over the weekend.
Day 1 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_94qwbg.gif?1526306199054
Day 2 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_98qwbg.gif?1528293750112
Day 3 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_99qwbg.gif?1528293842764
Days 4-5 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162
Days 6-7 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/97ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162
7 Day Total precipitation below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.govcdx /qpf/p168i.gif?1530796126
Excessive rain potential
Current Day 1 Forecast Valid 12Z 10/22/18 - 12Z 10/23/18 |
Day 1 Threat Area in Text Format
Day 2 and Day 3 Forecasts |
Current Day 2 Forecast Valid 12Z 10/23/18 - 12Z 10/24/18 |
Day 2 Threat Area in Text Format
Current Day 3 Forecast |
Here are the latest hazards across the country. The dark purple is a freeze warning. The bright purple is a hard freeze warning. The light/bright blue is a freeze watch, darker/medium blue is a frost advisory. Gray is fog. Green is flood watch/warning. Pink is a Winter Storm Warning. Purple is a WW advisory.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/ Go to "hazards"
Low Temperatures Thursday Morning |
High Temperatures today and Friday.
Very chilly Midwest to Northeast to East Coast.
Highs for days 3-7:
Pattern change at the end of this period that affects where the cold is aimed and where it starts to warm up.
How do these days 3-7 temperatures compare to average at this time of year?
Cold anomalies East.........., Warm West shifting.
Changing in week 2?
Low Temperature Departures:
Surface features for the same 3-7 day period:
Becoming more active but moisture is lacking for systems in the Midwest, initially. Big East Coast storm, possible Nor'easter this weekend.........with some remnants of hurricane Willa from the Eastern Pacific earlier this week.
Current Dew Points
Extremely dry air in the Great Lakes to Northeast.
Latest radar loop.
Action in the South!
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/radar_tab.php
Rains the past 24 hours
Rains in the Plains and surrounding areas. Also along the Gulf.
You can go to this link to see rain totals from recent time periods:
https://water.weather.gov/precip/
Go to precipitation, then scroll down to pick a time frame. Hit states to get the borders to see locations better. Under products, you can hit "observed" or "Percent of normal"
Soil moisture anomaly:
Still wet in an enormous area. Drying will continue for the Midwest but with some interruptions.
Rains compared to average for the last 7, 14, 30 and 60 days.
Usually not updated for previous day until late the next day. Hopefully the gap in the S.Plains will resume data reporting soon.
Note how incredibly wet it's been over the past 60 days over eastern 2/3rds of the country!
https://www.atmos.illinois.edu/~snodgrss/Ag_Wx.html
The top map is the Canadian ensemble average, the maps below are the individual members that make up the average
End of week 2....................0Z ensembles from Thursday. Deep trough/upper level low position key to the forecast......it's farther west today, at least for this model, which means wetter and possibly warmer in the East. Low confidence in where the cold will be at this time frame.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Each member is like the parent, Canadian model operational model.......with a slight tweek/variation in parameters. Since we know the equations to represent the physics of the atmosphere in the models are not perfect, its useful to vary some of the equations that are uncertain(can make a difference) to see if it effects the outcome and how.
The average of all these variations(ensembles) often yields a better tool for forecasting. It's always more consistent. The individual operational model, like each individual ensemble member can vary greatly from run to run.........and represent an extreme end of the spectrum at times. The ensemble average of all the members, because it averages the extremes.............from opposite ends of the spectrum............changes much less from run to run.
360h GZ 500 forecast valid on Nov 09, 2018 00 UTC
Here are the 0Z GFS ensemble, individual solutions at 360 hours(2 weeks). Some solutions opt for a deep trough in the Northeast, with the coldest air in that location. The European model is similar to this also, with much more cold in the East. This would also be a drier pattern.
Low confidence at this time frame!
The low skill, longer range CFS model for weeks 3-4.
Pronounced upper level ridge and warmth along and off the East Coast. Coldhe East in both weeks 3 and 4. Cold Rockies/Plains/Midwest in both weeks 3 and 4, along with wet(snowy northern areas) weather.
Higher residential heating overall than yesterday! Don't take this one to the bank.
Check in tomorrow to read something different............."low skill" (-:
Precip below:
National Weather Service 6-10 day, 8-14 day outlooks.
Updated early this afternoon.
Temperature Probability | |
Precipitation Probability |
the 8-14 day outlooks ArchivesAnalogsLines-Only FormatGIS Data | |
Temperature Probability | |
Latest, updated graph/forecast for AO and NAO here, including an explanation of how to interpret them. Both will be in negative territory: