Here are the latest hazards across the country. The dark purple is a freeze warning. The bright purple is a hard freeze warning.  The light/bright  blue is a freeze watch, darker/medium blue is a frost advisory. Gray is fog. Green is flood watch/warning. Pink is a Winter Storm Warning. Purple is a WW advisory.

                          https://www.spc.noaa.gov/  Go to "hazards"                                                                                       

High Temperatures today and Thursday.

Reinforcing shot of chill Midwest to Northeast.....even farther south.

Highs for days 3-7:

 
Very chilly  Midwest/East, especially Northeast (where lots of people live and need heating)mild  to warm West.

Pattern change at the end of this period that affects where the cold is aimed and where it starts to warm up.

How do these days 3-7 temperatures compare to average at this time of year?

 Cold anomalies East, Warm West.

Changing in week 2?

Low Temperature Departures:

Surface features for the same 3-7 day period:

Becoming more active but moisture is lacking for systems in the Midwest. Big East Coast storm, possible Nor'easter this weekend.........with some remnants of hurricane Willa from the Eastern Pacific earlier this week.

Current Dew Points

Dry air over most of the country.  

Latest radar loop.

Action in the Plains!

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/radar_tab.php

Rains the past 24 hours

Very dry....except for Texas/New Mexico and Northeast. 

You can go to this link to see rain totals from recent time periods:

https://water.weather.gov/precip/

                              Go to precipitation, then scroll down to pick a time frame. Hit states to get the borders to see locations better. Under products, you can hit "observed" or "Percent of normal"      

Soil moisture anomaly:

Much too wet in an enormous area. Drying will continue for the Midwest but with some interruptions.

Rains compared to average for the last 7, 14, 30 and 60 days. 

Usually not updated for previous day until late the next day.

Note how incredibly wet it's been over the past 60 days over eastern 2/3rds of the country!

https://www.atmos.illinois.edu/~snodgrss/Ag_Wx.html

The top map is the Canadian ensemble average, the maps below are the individual members that make up the average

End of week 2....................0Z ensembles from Wednesday. Deep trough/upper level low position key to the forecast. Pretty extreme solutions in some cases........most of them look pretty cold( colder than GFS ensembles)

The location of this feature means everything.......and  will determine what areas are the wettest and coldest. Warm to the east of the trough, if it's far enough west. Canadian model has been the coldest, deepest and farthest east with the trough and other models followed overnight.

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Each member is like the parent, Canadian model operational model.......with a slight tweek/variation in parameters. Since we know the equations to represent the physics of the atmosphere in the models are not perfect, its useful to vary some of the equations that are uncertain(can make a difference) to see if it effects the outcome and how.

The average of all these variations(ensembles) often yields a better tool for forecasting. It's always more consistent. The individual operational model, like each individual ensemble member can vary greatly from run to run.........and represent an extreme end of the spectrum at times. The ensemble average of all the members, because it averages the extremes.............from opposite ends of the spectrum............changes much less from run to run.

360h GZ 500 forecast valid on Nov 08, 2018 00 UTC

Here are the 0Z GFS ensemble, individual solutions at 360 hours(2 weeks). They show the deep trough somewhere in the US also but not nearly as extreme as the Canadian model. Potential upper level ridge in the Southeast.......which would warm up the East looks less likely today.

Doesn't look quite as wet as earlier this week to me(with the upper level ridge in the Southeast gone).

The low skill, longer range CFS model for weeks 3-4.

Pronounced upper level ridge and warmth in the East  in both weeks 3 and 4. Cold Plains in both weeks 3 and 4, along with wet(snowy northern areas) weather.

Low residential heating in the East. Don't take this one to the bank.

Check in tomorrow to read something different............."low skill" (-:

Precip below:

National Weather Service 6-10 day, 8-14 day outlooks.

Updated early this afternoon. 

This Wednesday update is most noted for how wet it is across the entire country for both periods. I wouldn't count on the temps in that forecast verifying..........the latest guidance suggests a Winter storm early in week 2 with a big snow event on the northwest side of the track in the Plains/Upper Midwest..maybe a big warm up in the East, on the warm side of the storm...see details below.

Temperature Probability

Precipitation Probability

the 8-14 day outlooks ArchivesAnalogsLines-Only FormatGIS Data

Temperature Probability

Latest, updated graph/forecast for AO and NAO here, including an explanation of how to interpret them. Both will be in negative territory:

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/15793/

Last run of the 12z Canadian model ensembles not as cold as the prior run. 

348h GZ 500 forecast valid on Nov 8, 2018 00UTC

Potential for Winter storm late next Thursday thru Friday Night.

12z operational European model just updated for 12 hour periods, beginning 192 hours(Thurs morning) to 240 hours(Sat morning)

Mike,

 Your 7/14/30/60 day rainfall maps have a glitch on them every day: they all show a fictitious red splotch over N TX/OK and vicinity.

Thanks Larry.

I'm hoping the source gets it resolved soon.