KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Wednesday, October 24, 2018
7:00 AM ET. MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey
Composite Idx (previous 322.1)
Composite Idx, W/W% (previous -7.1%)
Purchase Idx-SA (previous 224.0)
Purchase Idx-SA, W/W% (previous -5.9%)
Refinance Idx (previous 838.1)
Refinance Idx, W/W% (previous -9.0%)
9:00 AM ET. August U.S. Monthly House Price Index
9:45 AM ET. October US Flash Services PMI
PMI, Services (previous 52.9)
9:45 AM ET. October US Flash Manufacturing PMI
PMI, Mfg (previous 55.6)
10:00 AM ET. September New Residential Sales
New Home Sales (previous 629K)
New Home Sales, M/M% (previous +3.5%)
New Home Sales Months Supply (previous 6.1)
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Crude Oil Stocks (Bbl) (previous 416.441M)
Crude Oil Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +6.49M)
Gasoline Stocks (Bbl) (previous 234.156M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -2.016M)
Distillate Stocks (Bbl) (previous 132.638M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -0.827M)
Refinery Usage (previous 88.8%)
Total Prod Supplied (Bbl/day) (previous 19.96M)
Total Prod Supplied, Net Chg (Bbl/day) (previous +0.137M)
2:00 PM ET. U.S. Federal Reserve Beige Book
Thursday, October 25, 2018
8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims
Jobless Claims (previous 210K)
Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous -5K)
Continuing Claims (previous 1640000)
Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous -13K)
8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales
Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 382.5K)
Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 295.6K)
Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 476.1K)
8:30 AM ET. September Advance Economic Indicators Report
8:30 AM ET. September Advance Report on Durable Goods
Durable Goods-SA, M/M% (previous +4.5%)
Dur Goods, Ex-Defense, M/M% (previous +2.6%)
Dur Goods, Ex-Transport, M/M% (previous +0.1%)
Orders: Cap Gds, Non-Def, Ex-Air, M/M% (previous -0.5%)
Shipmnts: Cap Gds, Non-Def, Ex-Air, M/M% (previous +0.1%)
9:45 AM ET. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
10:00 AM ET. September Pending Home Sales Index
Pending Home Sales (previous 104.2)
Pending Home Sales Idx, M/M% (previous -1.8%)
Pending Home Sales Idx , Y/Y% (previous -2.3%)
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 3037B)
Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous +81B)
11:00 AM ET. October Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Survey of Tenth District Manufacturing
Mfg Activity Idx (previous 10)
6-Mo Exp Prod Idx (previous 38)
Mfg Composite Idx (previous 13)
6-Mo Exp Composite Idx (previous 27)
4:30 PM ET. Money Stock Measures
4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings
4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings
Friday, October 26, 2018
8:30 AM ET. 3rd Quarter Advance estimate GDP
Annual Rate, Q/Q% (previous +4.2%)
Chain-Weighted Price Idx, Q/Q% (previous +3.0%)
PCE Price Idx, Q/Q% (previous +2.0%)
Purchase Price Idx, Q/Q% (previous +2.4%)
Real Final Sales 1st Est, Q/Q% (previous +5.4%)
Core PCE Price Idx, Q/Q% (previous +2.1%)
Personal Consumption, Q/Q% (previous +3.8%)
10:00 AM ET. October University of Michigan Survey of Consumers – final
End-Mo Sentiment Idx (previous 100.1)
End-Mo Expectations Idx (previous 90.5)
12-Month Inflation Forecast (previous 2.7%)
5-Year Inflation Forecast (previous 2.5%)
End-Mo Current Idx (previous 115.2)
The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=indexes"
The STOCK INDEXES:The December NASDAQ 100 was lower in late-overnight trading as it extends the decline off last week's high. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December resumes the decline off October's high, the 75% retracement level of the April-September-rally crossing at 6720.95 is the next downside target. If December resumes the rally off October's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 7455.40 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 7333.81. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 7455.40. First support is the 62% retracement level of the April-September-rally crossing at 6898.35. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the April-September-rally crossing at 6720.95.
The December S&P 500 was lower overnight as it extends the decline off October's high. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold, diverging but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off October's high, the 75% retracement level of the April-September-rally crossing at 2672.69 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 2833.16 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the October 17th reaction high crossing at 2823.00. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2833.16. First support is the 62% retracement level of the April-September-rally crossing at 2720.80. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the April-September-rally rally crossing at 2672.69.
INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"
INTEREST RATES: December T-bonds were higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher price are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 138-14 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December resumes the decline off August's high, monthly support crossing at 134-04 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 138-14. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 141-04. First support is October's low crossing at 136-16. Second support is monthly support crossing at 134-04.
December T-notes was higher in late-overnight trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 118.145 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted and renew the rally off October's low. If December resumes the decline off August's high, monthly support crossing at 114.192 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 118.145. Second resistance is the September 28th reaction high crossing at 119.000. First support is October's low crossing at 117.135. Second support is monthly support crossing at 114.192.
ENERGY MARKETS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=energy"
ENERGY MARKETS: NovemberNymex crude oil was slightly lower overnight as it extends the decline off October's high. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible near-term. If November extends the decline off October's high, September's low crossing at 66.67 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 72.53 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 72.53. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 76.90. First support is September's low crossing at 66.67. Second support is August's low crossing at 63.48.
November heating oil was lower overnight as it extends the decline off October's high. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If November extends this month's decline, September's low crossing at 219.43 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 234.91 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 234.91. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 245.00. First support is September's low crossing at 219.43. Second support is August's low crossing at 208.43.
November unleaded gas was lower overnight as it extends the decline off October's high. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If November extends the decline off October's high, the 50% retracement level of the 2017-2018-decline crossing at 173.24 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Friday's high crossing at 193.54 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 191.19. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 197.79. First support is the overnight low crossing at 181.21. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2017-2018-decline crossing at 173.24.
November Henry natural gas was lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If November extends the decline off October's high, the 50% retracement level of the September-October-rally crossing at 3.058 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 3.221 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is October's high crossing at 3.368. Second resistance is the July-2015 high crossing at 3.457. First support is the 50% retracement level of the September-October-rally crossing at 3.058. Second support is the 62% retracement level of September-October-rally crossing at 2.984.
CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"
CURRENCIES:The December Dollar was higher overnight as it renewed the rally off September's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off September's low, August's high crossing at 96.45 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Tuesday's low crossing at 94.47 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 96.20. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 96.45. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at 94.47. Second support is September's low crossing at 93.39.
The December Euro was lower overnight as it extends the decline off September's high. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off September's high, August's low crossing at 114.09 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Tuesday's high crossing at 116.78 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at 116.78. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 118.93. First support is the overnight low crossing at 114.41. Second support is August's low crossing at 114.09.
The December British Pound was lower in late-overnight trading as it extended the decline off October's high. The low-range trade in the overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower prices are possible near-term. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off October's high, September's low crossing at 1.2845 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.3114 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is September's high crossing at 1.3350. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 1.3435. First support is the overnight low crossing at 1.2929. Second support is September's low crossing at 1.2845.
The December Swiss Franc was lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off September's high, weekly support crossing at 1.0042 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0155 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0155. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0278. First support is Monday's low crossing at 1.0069. Second support is weekly support crossing at 1.0042.
The December Canadian Dollar was slightly lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off October's high, September's low crossing at 75.75 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Tuesday's high crossing at 77.51 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at 77.51. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 78.35. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 76.48. Second support is September's low crossing at 75.75.
The December Japanese Yen was lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0890 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0898 would open the door for additional gains near-term. If December renews the decline off August's high, the 87% retracement level of the 2015-2016 rally crossing at 0.0876 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0898. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 0.0912. First support is October's low crossing at 0.0877. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2015-2016 rally crossing at 0.0876.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"
PRECIOUS METALS: December gold was lower overnight as it has fallen back into the trading range of the past two-weeks. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off October's low, the 38% retracement level of the April-August-Decline crossing at 1251.30 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 1206.80 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 1243.00. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the April-August-Decline crossing at 1251.30. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1228.30. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1206.80.
December silver was slightly higher overnight as it extends this month's trading range. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 14.950 would mark an upside breakout of the aforementioned trading range while renewing the rally off September's low. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 14.255 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 14.950. Second resistance is the August 28th reaction high crossing at 15.070. First support is the reaction low crossing at 14.255. Second support is September's low crossing at 13.965.
December copper was slightly higher overnight as it extends the trading range of the past six-weeks. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. If December resumes the rally off September's low, the July 5th gap crossing at 293.10 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 272.87 would confirm a downside breakout of the aforementioned trading range. First resistance is the July 5th gap crossing at 293.10. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the June-August-decline crossing at 296.46. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 272.87. Second support is September's low crossing at 258.00.
GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains
December corn was lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. If December resumes the aforementioned rally, the 50% retracement level of the May-September-decline crossing at 3.85 3/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.64 1/2 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at 3.78 1/2. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the May-September-decline crossing at 3.85 3/4. First support is the reaction low crossing at 3.60 1/4. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 3.54 1/2.
December wheat was lower overnight and has broken out below trading range support of the past two-months crossing at 5.05 1/4. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off last-week's high, September's low crossing at 4.95 1/4 is the next downside target. If December renews the rally off September's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2017-2018-rally crossing at 5.45 1/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 5.31 1/4. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2017-2018-rally crossing at 5.45 1/4. First support is the reaction low crossing at 5.05 1/4. Second support is September's low crossing at 4.95 1/4.
December Kansas City Wheat closed down a 1/4-cent at 5.07 1/2.
December Kansas City wheat closed fractionally lower on Tuesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off October's high, September's low crossing at 4.98 3/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 5.35 3/4 are needed to confirm an upside breakout of the September-October trading range. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 5.35 3/4. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the August-September decline crossing at 5.47 1/4. First support is September's low crossing at 4.98 3/4. Second support is July's low crossing at 4.93 3/4.
December Minneapolis wheat was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are still possible. If December extends the decline off October's high, October's low crossing at 5.77 3/4 is the next downside target. If December renews the rally off September's low, the 62% retracement level of the May-July-decline crossing at 6.15 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at 6.02 1/4. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the May-July-decline crossing at 6.15. First support is October's low crossing at 5.77 3/4. Second support is September's low crossing at 5.60 1/4.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
November soybeans were lower overnight as it extends the decline off October's high. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible near-term. If November extends the decline off October's high, the reaction low crossing at 8.47 is the next downside target. If November resumes the rally off September's low, the 38% retracement level of the May-September-decline crossing at 9.07 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at 8.92. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the May-September-decline crossing at 9.07. First support is the reaction low crossing at 8.47. Second support is September's low crossing at 8.12 1/4.
December soybean meal was lower overnight as it extends the decline off October's high. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the aforementioned decline, September's low crossing at 301.60 is the next downside target. If December renews the rally off September's low, the 38% retracement level of the May-September-decline crossing at 3.36 1/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at 327.30. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the May-September-decline crossing at 3.36 1/4. First support is the overnight low crossing at 308.90. Second support is September's low crossing at 301.60.
December soybean oil was steady to slightly higher in late-overnight trading.The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 28.73 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If December resumes the aforementioned rally, the 38% retracement level of the May-September-decline crossing at 30.53 is the next upside target. First resistance is October's high crossing at 30.01. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the May-September-decline crossing at 30.53. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 28.73. Second support is September's low crossing at 27.13.
Thanks tallpine!