KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Monday, February 12, 2018
2:00 PM ET. January Monthly Treasury Statement of Receipts & Outlays of the U.S. Govt.
N/A U.S. President Donald Trump releases Fiscal Year 2019 budget proposal today at the earliest
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The March NASDAQ 100 closed higher on Friday after spiking below the 38% retracement level of the 2017-2018-rally crossing at 6217.75.The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off January's high, the October 25th low crossing at 6024.00 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 6787.36 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 6717.75. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 6787.36. First support is the 38% retracement level of the 2017-2018-rally crossing at 6217.75. Second support is the October 25th low crossing at 6024.00.
The March S&P 500 closed slightly higher on Friday as it rebounded off support marked by the 38% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 2529.20. A short covering rally in the afternoon session tempered some of today's losses. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish again signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off January's high, the September 26th low crossing at 2494.90 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 2773.55 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 2725.28. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2773.55. First support is the 38% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 2529.20. Second support is the September 26th low crossing at 2494.90.
The Dow posted another volatile trading session but managed to close higher on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If the Dow extends the decline off January's high, November's low crossing at 23,242.75 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 25,695.79 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 25,235.37. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 26,695.79. First support is today's low crossing at 23,360.29. Second support is November's low crossing at 23,242.75.
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March T-bonds closed down 2/32's at 144-01.
March T-bonds closed lower on Friday as it extended the decline off December's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off December's high, weekly support crossing at 140-03 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 147-23 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 146-01. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 147-23. First support is today's low crossing at 143-20. Second support is weekly support crossing at 140-03.
March T-notes closed up 75/32's at 121-040.
March T-notes closed higher due to short covering on Friday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this winter's decline, weekly support crossing at 119.170 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 121.289 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 121.289. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 123.035. First support is Thursday's low crossing at 120.170. Second support is weekly support crossing at 119.170.
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March crude oil closed lower on Friday as it extended the decline off January's high. Baker Hughes reported today that the number of active U.S. rigs drilling for oil jumped by 26 to 791 this week. That marked a third straight week of increases and the largest weekly rise in more than a year. The total active U.S. rig count, which includes oil and natural-gas rigs, also climbed by 29 to 975, according to Baker Hughes. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off January's high, the 38% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 55.87 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 63.94 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is January's high crossing at 66.66. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 70.29. First support is today's low crossing at 58.07. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 55.87.
March heating oil closed sharply lower on Friday as it extends the decline off January's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night trading session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off January's high, the 50% retracement level of the June-January-rally crossing at 178.38 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 204.23 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted.First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 200.39. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 204.23. First support is the 50% retracement level of the June-January-rally crossing at 178.38. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the June-January-rally crossing at 170.04.
March unleaded gas closed sharply lower on Friday as it extends the decline off January's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the aforementioned decline, the 50% retracement level of the June-January-rally crossing at 162.06 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 185.96 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 185.96. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 193.93. First support is the 38% retracement level of the June-January-rally crossing at 169.62. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the June-January-rally crossing at 162.06.
March Henry natural gas closed lower on Friday as it extends the decline off January's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the aforementioned decline, December's low crossing at 2.532 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.940 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 2.856. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.940. First support is today's low crossing at 2.576. Second support is December's low crossing at 2.532.
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The March Dollar closed higher on Friday as it extends the rally off January's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off January's low, the 38% retracement level of the November-January-decline crossing at 90.71 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving averagecrossing at 89.43 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the November-January-decline crossing at 90.71. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 91.44. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 89.43. Second support is January's low crossing at 88.25.
The March Euro closed lower on Friday as it extends the decline off January's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off January's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 121.18 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 123.98 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is January's high crossing at 125.76. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at 126.74. First support is the reaction low crossing at 122.09. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 121.18.
The March British Pound closed lower on Friday as it extended the decline off January's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off January's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3704 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.4052 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.4052. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 1.4370. First support is today's low crossing at 1.3780. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3704.
The March Swiss Franc closed lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below Thursday's low crossing at 1.0589 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March resumes the rally off October's low, the 38% retracement level of the 2015-2016-decline crossing at 1.0994 is the next upside target. First resistance is January's high crossing at 1.0829. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2015-2016-decline crossing at 1.0994. First support is Thursday's low crossing at 1.0589. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0390.
The March Canadian Dollar closed lower on Friday as it extends the decline off last Wednesday's high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off January's high, the 75% retracement level of the December-January-rally crossing at 78.56 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 80.48 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 80.48. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 81.68. First support is the 62% retracement level of the December-January-rally crossing at 79.11. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the December-January-rally crossing at 78.56.
The March Japanese Yen closed higher on Friday as it renewed the rally off January's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off January's low, the 87% retracement level of the September-November-decline crossing at 0.9288 is the next upside target. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 0.9073 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is today's high crossing at 0.9275. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the September-November-decline crossing at 0.9288. First support is the reaction low crossing at 0.9073. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.9004.
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April gold closed lower on Friday as it extended the decline off January's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April extends the decline off January's high, the 50% retracement level of the December-January-rally crossing at 1306.70 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1339.40 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1339.40. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 1370.50. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1308.60. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the December-January-rally crossing at 1306.70.
March silver closed lower on Friday as it extends the decline off January's high. The low-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off January's high, December's low crossing at 15.635 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 16.963 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 16.963. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 17.705. First support is the reaction low crossing at 16.140. Second support is December's low crossing at 15.635.
March copper closed lower on Friday as it extends the decline off December's high.The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off December's high, the 87% retracement level of December's rally crossing at 299.03 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 317.82 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 317.82. Second resistance is Monday's high crossing at 325.75. First support is the 75% retracement level of December's rally crossing at 303.58. Second support is the 87% retracement level of December's rally crossing at 299.03.
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March Corn closed down 3 3/4-cents at 3.62.
March corn closed lower on Friday after failing to close out above resistance marked by the 25% retracement level of the July-January-decline crossing at 3.65 1/2. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a setback into the last half of February to mark a mid-winter low might have begun with today's decline. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.57 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off January's low, October's high crossing at 3.69 1/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 25% retracement level of the July-January-decline crossing at 3.65 1/2. Second resistance is last October's high crossing at 3.69 1/4. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.57. Second support is January's low crossing at 3.45 1/2.
March wheat closed down 7-cents at 4.49 1/4.
March wheat closed lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging and are turning neutral to bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.38 3/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off January's low, last September's high crossing at 4.82 is the next upside target. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 4.64 1/2. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 4.82. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.38 3/4. Second support is January's low crossing at 4.13 1/4.
March Kansas City Wheat closed down 9-cents at 4.65 1/2.
March Kansas City wheat closed lower due to profit taking on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.48 3/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off December's high, the 38% retracement level of 2017's trading range crossing at 4.88 1/2. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 4.84 1/2. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of 2017's trading range crossing at 4.88 1/2. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 4.67 1/4. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.48 3/4.
March Minneapolis wheat closed down 9 1/2-cents at 6.03 1/2.
March Minneapolis wheat closed lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off January's high, the 87% retracement level of the April-July-rally crossing at 5.89 1/2 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 6.15 1/2 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is January's high crossing at 6.34 1/2. Second resistance is the reaction high resistance crossing at 6.51. First support is Monday's low crossing at 6.00. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the April-July-rally crossing at 5.89 1/2.
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March soybeans closed down 4-cents at 9.83 3/4.
March soybeans closed lower on Friday.The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. Closes above January's high crossing at 10.04 3/4 are needed to renew the rally off January's low. If March resumes the decline off January's high, the reaction low crossing at 9.61 1/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the December-January-decline crossing at 10.06 1/4. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the December-January-decline crossing at 10.16 1/4. First support is the reaction low crossing at 9.61 1/4. Second support is January's low crossing at 9.44 1/2.
March soybean meal closed up $2.50 at 344.20.
March soybean meal closed higher on Friday as it extended this week's rally. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March renews the rally off January's low, December's high crossing at 351.20 is the next upside target. Closes below Monday's low crossing at 326.20 would confirm a double top with January's high has been posted. First resistance is January's high crossing at 348.50. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 351.20. First support is Monday's low crossing at 326.20. Second support is January's low crossing at 310.30.
March soybean oil closed down 17 pts. At 32.04.
March soybean oil closed lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off January's high, last June's low crossing at 31.85 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 33.14 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 33.14. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 34.10. First support is today's low crossing at 31.94. Second support is last June's low crossing at 31.85.
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April hogs closed down $0.60 at $68.85.
April hogs closed lower on Friday as it extends the decline off January's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April extends the decline off January's high, the 75% retracement level of the August-January-rally crossing at 68.07 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 73.38 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 71.72. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 73.38. First support is Thursday's low 68.75. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the August-January-rally crossing at 68.07.
April cattle closed down $0.10 at 123.63.
April cattle closed lower on Friday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Multiple closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 123.77 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If April extends the rally off January's low, November's high crossing at 130.10 is the next upside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 127.38. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 130.10. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 123.77. Second support is January's low crossing at 118.05.
March Feeder cattle closed down $1.05 at $146.20.
March Feeder cattle closed lower on Friday and below the 20-day moving average crossing at 146.75 confirming that a short-term top has been posted. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. If March extends this week's decline, the reaction low crossing at 142.42 is the next downside target. If March renews the rally off December's low, the reaction high crossing at 154.05 is the next upside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 154.05. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 156.13. First support is the reaction low crossing at 142.42. Second support is January's low crossing at 140.13.
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March coffee closed lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March resumes the decline off January's high, December's low crossing at 11.83 is the next downside target. Multiple closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 12.36 are needed to confirms that a short-term low has been posted.
March cocoa closed slightly lower on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 19.83 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off December's low, the 75% retracement level of the November-December-decline crossing at 21.20 is the next upside target.
March sugar closed slightly higher on Friday. The low-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. If March renews the decline off January's high, the September-2015 low crossing at 12.72 is the next downside target. If March extends the rally off January's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 14.17 is the next upside target.
March cotton closed slightly higher on Friday as it consolidates some of the decline off January's high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off January's high, the 62% retracement level of the October-January-rally crossing at 73.52 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 79.60 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.