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Scroll down and enjoy the latest comprehensive weather to the max!!
Dry weather continues for a couple more days for good harvest. Turning wet in week 2?
Here are the latest (cold weather) hazards across the country. The dark purple is a freeze warning. The bright purple is a hard freeze warning. The light/bright blue is a freeze watch, darker/medium blue is a frost advisory.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/ Go to "hazards"
| Low Temperatures Thursday Morning |
The latest rain forecasts for the next week are below. Dry pattern for the Midwest to accelerate harvest continues on most days this week but we have some rain entering the picture.
Some unwanted wet weather for cotton.
Day 1 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_94qwbg.gif?1526306199054
Day 2 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_98qwbg.gif?1528293750112
Day 3 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_99qwbg.gif?1528293842764
Days 4-5 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162
Days 6-7 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/97ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162
7 Day Total precipitation below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.govcdx /qpf/p168i.gif?1530796126
Excessive rain potential
Current Day 1 Forecast Valid 12Z 10/22/18 - 12Z 10/23/18 |
Day 1 Threat Area in Text Format
| Day 2 and Day 3 Forecasts |
Current Day 2 Forecast Valid 12Z 10/23/18 - 12Z 10/24/18 |
Day 2 Threat Area in Text Format
Current Day 3 Forecast |
High Temperatures today and Tuesday.
Warming up...........then a reinforcing shot of chill Midwest to Northeast.
Highs for days 3-7:
Remaining very chilly Midwest/East, especially Northeast (where lots of people live and need heating)mild High Plains to warm West.
How do these days 3-7 temperatures compare to average at this time of year?
Cold anomalies Great Lakes to East, Warm West to mild N.Plains.
Low Temperature Departures:
Surface features for the same 3-7 day period:
Chilly Canadian high pressure in charge initially, with mostly dry weather in much of the country. Reinforcing cold front late week. Pattern may change at the end of this period.
Current Dew Points
Extraordinarily dry air over most of the country.
Latest radar loop.
Very Quiet.
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/radar_tab.php
Rains the past 24 hours
Very dry!!!
You can go to this link to see rain totals from recent time periods:
https://water.weather.gov/precip/
Go to precipitation, then scroll down to pick a time frame. Hit states to get the borders to see locations better. Under products, you can hit "observed" or "Percent of normal"
Soil moisture anomaly:
Much too wet in an enormous area. Drying will continue for the Midwest. Just what the harvest doctor ordered!!
Rains compared to average for the last 7, 14, 30 and 60 days.
Usually not updated for previous day until late the next day.
Note how incredibly wet it's been over the past 60 days over eastern 2/3rds of the country!
https://www.atmos.illinois.edu/~snodgrss/Ag_Wx.html
The top map is the Canadian ensemble average, the maps below are the individual members that make up the average
End of week 2....................0Z ensembles from Monday. Deep trough/upper level low position key to the forecast.
The location of this feature means everything.......and will determine what areas are the wettest and coldest. Warm to the east of the trough, if it's far enough west.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Each member is like the parent, Canadian model operational model.......with a slight tweek/variation in parameters. Since we know the equations to represent the physics of the atmosphere in the models are not perfect, its useful to vary some of the equations that are uncertain(can make a difference) to see if it effects the outcome and how.
The average of all these variations(ensembles) often yields a better tool for forecasting. It's always more consistent. The individual operational model, like each individual ensemble member can vary greatly from run to run.........and represent an extreme end of the spectrum at times. The ensemble average of all the members, because it averages the extremes.............from opposite ends of the spectrum............changes much less from run to run.
360h GZ 500 forecast valid on Nov 06, 2018 00 UTC
Here are the 0Z GFS ensemble, individual solutions at 360 hours(2 weeks). They show the deep trough somewhere in the US also. Could it back up West? That solution is in play today..........along with a potential upper level ridge in the Southeast.......yhich would warm up the East and cause it to turn very wet again.
The low skill, longer range CFS model for weeks 3-4.
Huge change noted yesterday, remain intact. Upper level ridge and warmth in the East/Southeast. Much warmer than last week. Upper level trough West. Very wet!
LOWER than average residential heating demand!!!
Check in tomorrow to read something different............."low skill" (-:
Precip below:
National Weather Service 6-10 day, 8-14 day outlooks.
Updated early this afternoon.
Temperature Probability | |
Precipitation Probability | |
| the 8-14 day outlooks ArchivesAnalogsLines-Only FormatGIS Data | |
Temperature Probability | |
 | |
Extreme weather days 3-7:
Wet Southeast to East Coast.
The Canadian model ensembles continue to look extreme at the end of 2 weeks, in contrast to most of the other models.
384h GZ 500 forecast valid on Nov 07, 2018 12 UTC
The 12z GFS ensembles are stronger with the upper level ridge in the Southeast, resulting in these solutions being much warmer in the east than the colder looking Canadian model ensembles.
