NG Monday
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Started by Jim_M - Oct. 22, 2018, 9:56 a.m.

Any initial guesses as to the minimal injection, if not withdrawal of NG on Thursday?  I'm not surprised by the down day today, but with storage so low, I don't see it staying down too much with the thought if NG heading back below 3000 TCF before October is over.  

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Re: NG Monday
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By metmike - Oct. 22, 2018, 11:09 a.m.
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Thanks Jim!

Since the market has known that we are starting the heating season with such low storage for a long time, I think that sort of places our starting point at today's price.......well above $3 at the moment.

Now we trade the first part of the heating season. If November has mild temps, we will crash well below $3. Am thinking just average temps might do it.

In fact, if the week 2+ forecasts turn  even  milder this week, we could be down to $3 in a hurry. 

The Canadian model is already colder than the other models. If that model is correct, we will gain some support vs selling off more. 


Seasonals are very weak here and ng in this age vs 15 years ago, seems to dial in the affects of  a weeks worth of weather in a day. 

By metmike - Oct. 22, 2018, 11:19 a.m.
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For the weather that affects residential heating demand and natural gas prices, go here:

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/15695/

By metmike - Oct. 22, 2018, 11:20 a.m.
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By metmike - Oct. 22, 2018, 11:21 a.m.
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Storage is Very Low for this time of year!!


Storage is below the  bottom of the previous 5 year range and around 600 bcf below last year at this time!

This is why the temperature forecast matters....in  the Summer/cooling season and Winter/heating season. We have a spike up of early season residential heating demand  this week into next week. That caused a spike up in ng prices earlier this week.


Working Gas in Underground Storage Compared with Five-Year Range

By metmike - Oct. 22, 2018, 11:21 a.m.
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EIA injection from last Thursday was +81 bcf.

                                                                                                                                                            

Working gas in underground storage, Lower 48 states Summary textCSVJSN
  Historical Comparisons
Stocks
billion cubic feet (Bcf)
 Year ago
(10/12/17)
5-year average
(2013-17) 
Region10/12/1810/05/18net changeimplied flow  Bcf% change Bcf% change
East812  790  22  22   899  -9.7  887  -8.5  
Midwest908  871  37  37   1,050  -13.5  1,032  -12.0  
Mountain177  180  -3  -3   224  -21.0  213  -16.9  
Pacific264  262  2  2   316  -16.5  344  -23.3  
South Central877  854  23  23   1,150  -23.7  1,166  -24.8  
   Salt203  191  12  12   303  -33.0  310  -34.5  
   Nonsalt673  663  10  10   847  -20.5  856  -21.4  
Total3,037  2,956  81  81   3,638  -16.5  3,642  -16.6  

                                    


By metmike - Oct. 22, 2018, 11:22 a.m.
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These were the temperatures that were used for the EIA report. Take a good look at that map. You don't see anomaly maps with such extremes in magnitude too often. 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/tanal/7day/mean/20181012.7day.mean.F.gif

By metmike - Oct. 22, 2018, 11:26 a.m.
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Here's the updated temperature map for the next EIA reporting period.


Huge cold anamolies and residential heating demand.  How tiny will the injection be, at a time of year that often features a decent sized injection?

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/tanal/temp_analyses.php


http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/tanal/7day/mean/20181019.7day.mean.F.gif

By metmike - Oct. 22, 2018, 11:29 a.m.
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Natural Gas price charts

We finally broke out above $3!  The weather will need to be cold in November to stay above $3.

A lot of volatility with the low storage. Prices have been gyrating up and down with the latest weather forecast.

Todays forecast is milder then the previous one at the end of last week.

 Seasonals turn strongly negative here.......if the extended forecasts turn mild, look out below.........but low storage +very cold = higher price potential.


 

Natural gas 3 months
         


Naturalgas 1 year below

Naturalgas 5 years below

                   

Naturalgas10years below                
                   
By metmike - Oct. 22, 2018, 11:33 a.m.
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Previous comments:          

NG injection

      Started by Jim_M - Oct. 18, 2018, 10:44 a.m.            

                                        

Good morning everyone.  We just breached the 3000 tcf mark.  Clearly we are going to have a low injection, if not a withdrawal next week and possible even the week after.  

Unless we warm up some in November, have we peaked?  I don't think I would get much argument, that we are really close to the top in terms of NG injection.  

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++


Agreed Mike.  We do normally see a seasonal top this time of year.  It will be interesting to see what a withdrawal or 2 and very low storage do to that seasonal trend.  

            ++++++++++++++++++++++++



                By patrick - Oct. 18, 2018, 11:34 a.m.            

                                     

The anomaly map is cute but doesn't look too bad. A lot of heat where cooling is over & cold where not many people live.

The yellow boot of averageness stomping on San Francisco is a little disturbing.

++++++++++++++++++++++++++


                By metmike - Oct. 18, 2018, 12:13 p.m.            

         

Jim,

I think that recent price strength dialed in the cold. 

The market trades on new information, which at this point, is the weather to end October and start off November.

+++++++++++++++++++++++++

     

                By metmike - Oct. 18, 2018, 12:16 p.m.            

                                        

Funny observation on the boot Patrick!


You are right about some of those very warm anomalies  being in places that are often having heating demand............that, in this case spelled bearish warmth. 

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++



                        Re: Natural Gas Friday            

                                       

                By WxFollower - Oct. 21, 2018, 4:45 p.m.            

            

 The upcoming weekly EIA report will be based on a week with a whopping 90 HDDs, which is normal for about 10 days later and is the earliest in Oct 90+ HDD week I could find going all the way back 20+ years! This will be the first good test to see the demand from significant HDDs since April. The CDD demand per CDD was pretty decent/didn't show looseness of supply/demand most of the cooling season. Now, we'll see how HDDs do.

+++++++++++++++++++++++++

         


    

Where do you get those HDD stats from?


At the link below, going to historical heating degree day data, I see

 91 HDD for 10/19/2002 and

95 HDD for 10/17/2009

https://www.aga.org/research/data/heating-degree-day-data/

     +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++                            


                             By WxFollower - Oct. 21, 2018, 5:33 p.m.            

          

Mike,

 My wording was wrong. I was looking at only FRI-THU weeks, which is what I use as EIA weeks. The 90 HDD for the week ending 10/18/18 is the earliest Fri-Thu week I could find with 90+. Here is the link to Fri-Thu DDs:

ftp://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/htdocs/archives.wkthurs/

 You are indeed correct in showing that those two calendar weeks in 2009 and 2002 were warmer weeks ending 10/18 or earlier. So, my statement was wrong. I should have said warmest so early going as far back as I could see for Fri-Thu weeks only. this link goes back only 15 years. I have other data I use to go back to the mid to late 90s but no link to it. Thanks for correcting me.


Aside: using calendar weeks as the AGA seems to be doing here can be very misleading. Calendar weeks and Fri-Thu weeks are often quite different even though it all evens out in the aggregate, of course.

                                    ++++++++++++++++++++


                       By WxFollower - Oct. 21, 2018, 6:04 p.m.            

            


 NG opened lower. My sources show a warmer late week 2 vs Fri forecast.

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++

       

                         By metmike - Oct. 21, 2018, 7:27 p.m.            

            

Agree with that Larry.


I know that you aren't a big fan of the week 3 and 4 outlooks but that period had a huge shift overnight from below normal to much above normal temperatures.


Also,  the NAO/AO indices were forecasted to crash hard on Friday but today, they bounce back up quickly, with alot of spread/uncertainty at the end of week 2.