Maybe I read the wrong material, but seldom do I find anybody that thinks the stk market will continue upward. Most think we have peaked, and those that think differently give few reasons to think this upward trend will last much longer. Are we fighting for the last little bit of upward movement or is this the time to be selling the stk market
When I sell my corn, I never hold out for that last penny, nickel or even dime of upward movment. If the conditions look like a top is close, and I have a profit locked in, then I sell as much as I can safely produce.. I would like to sell a home run, but singles and doubles have made me more money than swinging for the fences. Some times I even sell on the back side. The market may have given up a dime or?? and my gut instinct tells me to sell before more damage is done to price. It is hard on the ego, but money/profit talks. Is the time to sell stks in this same kind of market senerio as my selling corn??. We are told the Fed has removed the market put and I firmly believe they have, at least for some time. At least for longer than I would want to see the market fall.
The economy is growing and the corporate reports continue to beat estimates. Go ahead and sell. I'll buy your discount.
First thing - no one knows.
Second - that is the way you should feel in a bull market. You should be reading how everyone is sure it has to go down. When the danger comes, everyone should be saying that it cannot go down.
Third - money flows have been into the US. If we assume that the US will continue to attract capital from around the world, where is that money likely to flow to? Bonds don't look too attractive. Real estate doesn't look like a bargain.
Fourth - if you look at a long term chart of the S&P500, there is a four year (election?) cycle that is possibly the best cycle in any of the markets. It would seem to be intuitive also. Whenever this cycle has jumped out of phase, which is seldom, it has always come back into phase. 2018 is the year for this cycle to have it's normal corrective cycle low. A low early in the year followed by another correction now is perfect. *If* this cycle low is not severe, it would appear to be a correction in a bull market.
Fifth - refer to "first thing" at the top.
Can't really disagree with anything you say here... But....
People sometimes confuse the day to day noise in the markets with the long term trend. And the long term trend follows the funnys. Always. And in a year, barring some unforeseen catastrophe, equities will be worth at least 7% more than they are now. If that proves, for some odd reason, to not happen, in two years they'll be at least 14% more than they are now.
That's been my truth for nearly 40 years, it's help true. Funnys ultimately win. And the funnys look as good or better now than they have in those nearly 40 years, including the 90's.
Trump has already improved the economy to the extent that we haven't seen some of these improved statistics for decades. Small business expectations going forward, rate of small business formation among black males, unemployment rate. The improvement in allies paying for their defense, the improvement in trade deficits going forward. The bull market stops when everyone says it will only go up. Corrections are normal, two steps forward, one step back. The trade war is just beginning to bite into China, it's about to get much more acute for them. Where do you want to put your money - real estate, cryptos, gold. The bond market has rolled over. It so much bigger than any other depository for wealth, that some of it's outflow will wash continually into the stock market. A red wave in November might kick the market into overdrive.