High Temperatures today and Saturday.

Warming up briefly ahead of the next strong cold front.

   Highs for days 3-7:

 
Remainlng very chilly  Midwest/East, (where lots of people live and need heating)mild to warm High Plains to West.

How do these days 3-7 temperatures compare to average at this time of year?

 Cold East, Warm West. Magnitude of cold anomalies  fairly decent.

Low Temperature Departures:

Surface features for the same 3-7 day period:

Chilly Canadian high pressure in charge. Reinforcing(dry) cold front early next week with  moderation ahead of it.  Return flow of moisture on the backside of the High in the Plains later next week will cause rains to increase there.

Current Dew Points

Very dry air..........especially Northeast. 

Latest radar loop.

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/radar_tab.php

Rains the past 24 hours

You can go to this link to see rain totals from recent time periods:

https://water.weather.gov/precip/

                              Go to precipitation, then scroll down to pick a time frame. Hit states to get the borders to see locations better. Under products, you can hit "observed" or "Percent of normal"      

Soil moisture anomaly:

Much too wet in a large area. Drying has commenced in all of the Midwest!!!

Rains compared to average for the last 7, 14, 30 and 60 days. 

Usually not updated for previous day until late the next day.

Note how incredibly wet it's been over the past 60 days over eastern 2/3rds of the country!

https://www.atmos.illinois.edu/~snodgrss/Ag_Wx.html

The top map is the Canadian ensemble average, the maps below are the individual members that make up the average

End of week 2....................0Z ensembles from Friday. Strong agreement on very deep trough/upper level low but not the position.

The location of this feature means everything.......and  will determine what areas are the wettest and coldest.

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Each member is like the parent, Canadian model operational model.......with a slight tweek/variation in parameters. Since we know the equations to represent the physics of the atmosphere in the models are not perfect, its useful to vary some of the equations that are uncertain(can make a difference) to see if it effects the outcome and how.

The average of all these variations(ensembles) often yields a better tool for forecasting. It's always more consistent. The individual operational model, like each individual ensemble member can vary greatly from run to run.........and represent an extreme end of the spectrum at times. The ensemble average of all the members, because it averages the extremes.............from opposite ends of the spectrum............changes much less from run to run.

360h GZ 500 forecast valid on Nov 3, 2018 00UTC

Temperature Anomalies from GFS ensembles(fairly reliable product) going out 2 weeks. These maps show the Northern Hemisphere. The map of the US is front center. Look for the state borders in  white.

Today: Brief warm up ahead of the new cold shot Upper Midwest........that reinforces the chill in the Midwest/East.

 Very warm squeezed into the far southeast.

In 5+ days:

Coldest air escorted out stage Northeast, warm West shoots into the N.Plains.

In 10+ days:  Very chilly Midwest/East.

Day 15:  Upper level ridging Canada. Upper level troughing with chilly air underneath it somewhere in the US.

The low skill, longer range CFS model for weeks 3-4.

Strong Upper level ridge in Alaska/NW Canada/West Coast........... deep upper level trough downstream and very chilly temperatures for the US. Wet for many places.

Higher than average residential heating demand!!!

Check in tomorrow to read something different............."low skill" (-:

Precip below:

National Weather Service 6-10 day, 8-14 day outlooks.

Expecting below normal temperatures over a large part of the country as well as above normal precip............some as snow in the northern areas.

It came out different than I thought it would with a warm West, chilly East temperature pattern but still is wet. The last GFS ensembles and European model support the NWS forecast. The Canadian model ensembles are much colder.

Temperature Probability

Precipitation Probability

the 8-14 day outlooks ArchivesAnalogsLines-Only FormatGIS Data

Temperature Probability

The NWS 90 day outlook for Dec-Feb is below. Below that is the very mild November outlook.

They are basing this on a weak El Nino developing right now. Odds for mild temperatures vs average are elevated across much of the country. Precip is on the dry side in the north and wet in the south.

This would be bearish for natural gas prices and did put pressure on prices yesterday and overnight.

November outlook below........widespread mild conditions. Wet in the south.

12Z Canadian ensembles........Wow! This is at 2 weeks from now.

According to numerous members on this model.........Extreme pattern coming up as the jet stream buckles and meridional(north to south/south to north) flow takes over.

Just exactly where will the deep upper level trough/low be?

This will determine the coldest/wettest places and where the snow might be. 

360h GZ 500 forecast valid on Nov 3, 2018 12UTC

12z GFS ensembles don't look extreme at all.........more zonal and milder. This is at 2 weeks out. The ridge west/trough east couplet is there but much weaker.

our:  360
Image URL: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gefs-mean-sprd/12/gefs-mean-sprd_namer_360_500_vort_ht.gif

  On Friday's the NWS releases a week 3-4 outlook.

The one below predicts chilly temps from the Plains thru the Northeast with highest probabilities for colder than average in the Midwest.

Dry weather in the Midwest, wet over the East.

Temperature Probability	Precipitation Probability (Experimental)

Extreme weather days 3-7:

Cold East, wet South.

Extreme weather.......speculative, days 8-14:

Wet East.

I am colder than the NWS in my week 2 and beyond forecast because of a significant drop in both the NAO(North Atlantic Oscillation) and AO(Arctic Oscillation) into negative territory.

High latitude upper level ridging and a weakness to the south/upper level troughing at mid latitudes leads to these indixes being negative and cold air at the higher latitudes being flushed south:

Negative Arctic Oscillation

Here's a great link/explanation/graphics that explain this effect:

https://climate.ncsu.edu/climate/patterns/nao

500mb Height Anomalies During a Negative AO

Here are the graphics for a negative North Atlantic Oscillation:

500mb Height Anomalies During a Negative NAO

Surface Temperature Anomalies During a Negative NAO

We should also keep in mind that the NAO and AO values are forecasts too. They can be wrong and if those indices don't plunge lower as predicted, then the dynamics/affects described above are not likely.