NWS Winter outlook-just updated
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Started by metmike - Oct. 18, 2018, 1:54 p.m.

The NWS 90 day outlook for Dec-Feb is below. Below that is the very mild November outlook.


They are basing this on a weak El Nino developing right now. Odds for mild temperatures vs average are elevated across much of the country. Precip is on the dry side in the north and wet in the south.

This would be bearish for natural gas prices and could be putting some additional pressure on ng today, although the models have turned MUCH milder overnight and especially this morning. 


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November outlook below........widespread mild conditions. Wet in the south.

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Comments
By Jim_M - Oct. 18, 2018, 3:41 p.m.
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A warm winter wouldn't bother me.  The NWS 10-14 day outlook, looked colder than it did yesterday.  

By metmike - Oct. 18, 2018, 4:33 p.m.
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On the NWS outlook(based on last nights guidance) it backs up the cold so its over a larger area but has lower probabilities in the Northeast/East but that means zilch. 

Every model that was based on has been updated at least once and for the GFS, twice.