KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Friday, February 9, 2018
10:00 AM ET. December Monthly Wholesale Trade
Inventories, M/M% (expected +0.2%; previous +0.8%)
Monday, February 12, 2018
2:00 PM ET. January Monthly Treasury Statement of Receipts & Outlays of the U.S. Govt.
N/A U.S. President Donald Trump releases Fiscal Year 2019 budget proposal today at the earliest
The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes ""
The March NASDAQ 100 closed sharply lower on Thursday as market volatility continues.The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish hinting that a short-term low might have been struck with Tuesday's low. If March extends the decline off January's high, the 38% retracement level of the 2017-2018-rally crossing at 6217.75 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 6809.70 are needed to temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 6809.70. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 7047.25. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 6260.25. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the 2017-2018-rally crossing at 6217.75.
The March S&P 500 closed lower on Thursday as it extended Wednesday's losses. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 2784.11 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March extends the decline off January's high, the reaction low crossing at 2494.90 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2784.11. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 2878.40. First support is the 38% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 2529.20. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 2494.90.
The Dow posted another wild roller coaster trading session only to close sharply lower on Thursday. On going concerns about rising inflation and bond yields weighing on weighed on the Dow despite a relatively healthy domestic economy. Initial U.S. jobless claims fell by 9,000 to 221,000 in the seven days ended Feb 3. Pre-report estimates came in at 235,000. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a short-term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 25,798.43 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If the Dow extends the decline off January's high, November's low crossing at 23,242.75 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 25,798.43. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 26,529.44. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 23,778.74. Second support is November's low crossing at 23,242.75.
INTEREST RATES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=interest ""
March T-bonds closed down 13/32's at 144-07.
March T-bonds closed lower on Thursday as it extended the decline off December's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off December's high, weekly support crossing at 140-03 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 148-01 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 146-15. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 148-01. First support is today's low crossing at 143-20. Second support is weekly support crossing at 140-03.
March T-notes closed up 5/32's at 121-005.
March T-notes closed slightly higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this winter's decline, weekly support crossing at 119.170 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 121.315 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 121.315. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 123.057. First support is today's low crossing at 120.170. Second support is weekly support crossing at 119.170.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
March crude oil closed lower on Thursday as it extended the decline off January's high.The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 61.00 would open the door for a possible test of the 25% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 59.59. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 64.20 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is January's high crossing at 66.66. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 70.29. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 61.00. Second support is the 25% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 59.59.
March heating oil closed lower on Thursday as it extends the decline off January's high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night trading session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off January's high, the 38% retracement level of the June-January-rally crossing at 186.73 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 205.39 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 205.39. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 213.62. First support is the 38% retracement level of the June-January-rally crossing at 186.73. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the June-January-rally crossing at 178.42.
March unleaded gas closed lower on Thursday as it extends the decline off January's high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the aforementioned decline, the 38% retracement level of the June-January-rally crossing at 169.62 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 186.80 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 186.80. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 193.93. First support is today's low crossing at 174.85. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the June-January-rally crossing at 169.62.
March Henry natural gas closed lower on Thursday as it extends the decline off January's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the aforementioned decline, December's low crossing at 2.532 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.958 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.958. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 3.259. First support is today's low crossing at 2.681. Second support is December's low crossing at 2.532.
CURRENCIES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=currencies ""
The March Dollar closed slightly lower on Thursday as it consolidates some of the rally off January's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off January's low, the 38% retracement level of the November-January-decline crossing at 90.71 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 89.28 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the November-January-decline crossing at 90.71. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 91.49. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 89.28. Second support is January's low crossing at 88.25.
The March Euro closed lower on Thursday as it extends the decline off January's high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 124.21 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is January's high crossing at 125.76. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at 126.74. First support is the reaction low crossing at 122.09. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 121.12.
The March British Pound closed higher on Thursday as it consolidates some of the decline off January's high but remains below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.4088. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off January's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3696 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.4088 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.4088. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 1.4370. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 1.3857. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3696.
The March Swiss Franc closed higher due to short covering on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0602 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March resumes the rally off October's low, the 38% retracement level of the 2015-2016-decline crossing at 1.0994 is the next upside target. First resistance is January's high crossing at 1.0829. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2015-2016-decline crossing at 1.0994. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0602. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0381.
The March Canadian Dollar closed lower on Thursday as it extends the decline off last Wednesday's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off January's high, the 62% retracement level of the December-January-rally crossing at 79.11 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 80.57 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the September-December-decline crossing at 81.41. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the September-December-decline crossing at 82.04. First support is the 62% retracement level of the December-January-rally crossing at 79.11. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the December-January-rally crossing at 78.56.
The March Japanese Yen closed higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March renews the rally off December's low, the 87% retracement level of the September-November-decline crossing at 0.9288 is the next upside target. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 0.9073 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is January's high crossing at 0.9260. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the September-November-decline crossing at 0.9288. First support is the reaction low crossing at 0.9073. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.9000.
PRECIOUS METALS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=metals ""
April gold closed lower on Thursday as it extended the decline off January's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April extends the decline off January's high, the 50% retracement level of the December-January-rally crossing at 1306.70 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1339.90 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is January's high crossing at 1370.50. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 1396.20. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1308.20. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the December-January-rally crossing at 1306.70.
March silver closed slightly higher on Thursday. The high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off January's high, the reaction low crossing at 16.140 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 17.001 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the September-December-decline crossing at 17.686. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the September-November-decline crossing at 18.015. First support is the reaction low crossing at 16.140. Second support is December's low crossing at 15.635.
March copper closed lower on Thursday as it extends the decline off December's high.The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off December's high, the 75% retracement level of December's rally crossing at 303.58 is the next downside target. Closes above Monday's high crossing at 325.75 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 325.75. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 332.20. First support is the 62% retracement level of December's rally crossing at 308.61. Second support is the 75% retracement level of December's rally crossing at 303.58.
GRAINS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
March Corn closed down a 1/2-cent at 3.64 3/4.
March corn closed fractionally lower on Thursday after spiking above resistance marked by the 25% retracement level of the July-January-decline crossing at 3.65 1/2. The USDA’s latest estimate for world ending corn stocks was also below trade estimates of 204.2 million metric tons, at 203.1 MMT. That is lower than the agency’s January estimates of 206.6 MMT, a drop of approximately 137.8 million bushels. Lower production estimates from Argentina and Ukraine account for the majority of this change. USDA’s estimates for 2017/18 South American production had Brazil unchanged, at 3.740 billion bushels. Analysts had expected the agency to trend slightly lower, with an average trade guess of 3.673 billion bushels. USDA did lower its estimate for drought-stressed Argentina corn from 1.653 billion bushels in January to 1.535 billion bushels. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off January's low, October's high crossing at 3.69 1/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.56 1/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 25% retracement level of the July-January-decline crossing at 3.65 1/2. Second resistance is last October's high crossing at 3.69 1/4. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.56 1/4. Second support is January's low crossing at 3.45 1/2.
March wheat closed down 4-cents at 4.56 1/2.
March wheat closed lower on Thursday as it consolidated some of the rally off January's low. U.S. wheat ending stocks were raised from 989 million bushels to 1.009 billion bushels. World stocks moved lower from 268 million metric tons to 266.1 MMT, a difference of about 69.8 million bushels. Increased exports from Russia, Argentina and Canada more than offset reductions from the U.S. and European Union. Indonesia imports increased enough to unseat the world’s traditional No. 1 importer, Egypt. USDA made no changes to its season-average farm price for wheat, still at $4.60, although the agency narrowed its projected range by 5 cents on either ends, to $4.55 and $4.65. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off January's low, last September's high crossing at 4.82 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.38 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted.First resistance is today's high crossing at 4.64 1/2. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 4.82. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.38. Second support is January's low crossing at 4.13 1/4.
March Kansas City Wheat closed down 6 1/2-cents at 4.74 1/2.
March Kansas City wheat closed lower due to profit taking on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's high, the 38% retracement level of 2017's trading range crossing at 4.88 1/2. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.47 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 4.84 1/2. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of 2017's trading range crossing at 4.88 1/2. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 4.65. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.47.
March Minneapolis wheat closed up 3/4-cents at 6.13.
March Minneapolis wheat closed fractionally higher on Thursday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 6.16 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. If March extends the decline off January's high, the 87% retracement level of the April-July-rally crossing at 5.89 1/2 is the next downside target. First resistance is January's high crossing at 6.34 1/2. Second resistance is the reaction high resistance crossing at 6.51. First support is Monday's low crossing at 6.00. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the April-July-rally crossing at 5.89 1/2.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
March soybeans closed up 4 1/2-cents at 9.87 1/2.
March soybeans closed higher on Thursday. The USDA’s estimate for U.S. soybean stocks was raised from 470 million bushels to 530 million bushels. Trade estimates also anticipated a rise in 2017/18 ending stocks, but the average guess of 488 million bushels was moderately lower than USDA’s official February tally. World soybean stocks, on the other hand, fell slightly, from 98.6 million metric tons to 98.1 MMT, a difference of approximately 18.4 million bushels. That was a slightly more bullish drop than the average trade guess of 98.3 MMT. The USDA increased its Brazil soybean production estimates, but lowered its Argentina production estimates. Brazil’s 2017/18 soybean production potential is now 4.115 billion bushels, compared to 4.042 billion bushels in January, according to the agency. In Argentina, that production potential fell from 2.058 billion bushels in January to 1.984 billion bushels. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above January's high crossing at 10.04 3/4 are needed to renew the rally off January's low. If March resumes the decline off January's high, the reaction low crossing at 9.61 1/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the December-January-decline crossing at 10.06 1/4. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the December-January-decline crossing at 10.16 1/4. First support is the reaction low crossing at 9.61 1/4. Second support is January's low crossing at 9.44 1/2.
March soybean meal closed up $6.40 at 341.80.
March soybean meal closed higher on Thursday as it extended this week's rally. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March renews the rally off January's low, December's high crossing at 351.20 is the next upside target. Closes below Monday's low crossing at 326.20 would confirm a double top with January's high has been posted. First resistance is January's high crossing at 348.50. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 351.20. First support is Monday's low crossing at 326.20. Second support is January's low crossing at 310.30.
March soybean oil closed down 35 pts. At 32.21.
March soybean oil closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March renews the decline off January's high, last June's low crossing at 31.85 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 33.18 would open the door for additional gains near-term. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 33.18. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 34.10. First support is January's low crossing at 32.10. Second support is last June's low crossing at 31.85.
LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock
April hogs closed up $0.23 at $69.45.
April hogs closed higher on Thursday as it consolidated some of the decline off January's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April extends the decline off January's high, the 75% retracement level of the August-January-rally crossing at 68.07 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 73.62 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 72.22. Second resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 74.13. First support is today's low 68.75. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the August-January-rally crossing at 68.07.
April cattle closed down $0.25 at 123.73.
April cattle closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 123.54 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If April extends the rally off January's low, November's high crossing at 130.10 is the next upside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 127.38. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 130.10. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 123.54. Second support is January's low crossing at 118.05.
March Feeder cattle closed down $1.05 at $147.25.
March Feeder cattle closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 146.51 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March renews the rally off December's low, the reaction high crossing at 154.05 is the next upside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 154.05. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 156.13. First support is the reaction low crossing at 142.42. Second support is January's low crossing at 140.13.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
March coffee closed lower on Thursday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 12.38 are needed to confirms that a short-term low has been posted. If March resumes the decline off January's high, December's low crossing at 11.83 is the next downside target.
March cocoa posted an inside day with a higher close on Thursday leaving yesterday's key reversal down unconfirmed. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 19.77 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off December's low, the 75% retracement level of the November-December-decline crossing at 21.20 is the next upside target.
March sugar closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off January's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 14.19 is the next upside target. If March renews the decline off January's high, the September-2015 low crossing at 12.72 is the next downside target.
March cotton closed higher on Thursday as it consolidates some of the decline off January's high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off January's high, the 50% retracement level of the October-January-rally crossing at 75.65 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 79.90 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.