High Temperatures today and Friday.

Coldest today in the Northeast.

Highs for days 3-7:

 
Coldest Great Lakes to Northeast. Warm Southwest, milder to N.Plains.

How do these days 3-7 temperatures compare to average at this time of year?

 Cold anomalies east and south, warm anomalies west.

Low Temperature Departures:

Surface features for the same 3-7 day period:

Chilly Canadian high pressure in charge. Reinforcing cold front early next week with some moderation in between. Mostly dry weather as the atmosphere will be dried out. Cold is directed farther east compared to last week.

 The latest rain forecasts for the next week are below. Advertised pattern change is here. The next week will feature, widespread dry weather for the Cornbelt. Harvest will accelerate.

Day 1 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_94qwbg.gif?1526306199054

Day 2 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_98qwbg.gif?1528293750112

Day 3 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_99qwbg.gif?1528293842764

Days 4-5 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162

 Days 6-7 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/97ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162

7 Day Total precipitation below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.govcdx /qpf/p168i.gif?1530796126

Current Dew Points

Extraordinarily dry air in the Midwest to Northeast!  

     Latest radar loop.

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/radar_tab.php

Rains the past 24 hours

You can go to this link to see rain totals from recent time periods:

https://water.weather.gov/precip/

                              Go to precipitation, then scroll down to pick a time frame. Hit states to get the borders to see locations better. Under products, you can hit "observed" or "Percent of normal"      

Soil moisture anomaly:

Much too wet in a large area. Drying has commenced in all of the Midwest!!!

Rains compared to average for the last 7, 14, 30 and 60 days. 

Usually not updated for previous day until late the next day.

Note how incredibly wet it's been over the past 60 days over eastern 2/3rds of the country!

https://www.atmos.illinois.edu/~snodgrss/Ag_Wx.html

The top map is the Canadian ensemble average, the maps below are the individual members that make up the average

End of week 2....................0Z ensembles from Thursday.  Much disagreement amongst the individual members!  
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Each member is like the parent, Canadian model operational model.......with a slight tweek/variation in parameters. Since we know the equations to represent the physics of the atmosphere in the models are not perfect, its useful to vary some of the equations that are uncertain(can make a difference) to see if it effects the outcome and how.

The average of all these variations(ensembles) often yields a better tool for forecasting. It's always more consistent. The individual operational model, like each individual ensemble member can vary greatly from run to run.........and represent an extreme end of the spectrum at times. The ensemble average of all the members, because it averages the extremes.............from opposite ends of the spectrum............changes much less from run to run.

360h GZ 500 forecast valid on Nov 02, 2018 00 UTC

Forecasts for the control (GEM 0) and the 20 ensemble members (global model not available)

The low skill, longer range CFS model for weeks 3-4.

Strong Upper level ridge in Alaska/NW Canada. Bitter cold pools in Northern Alaska.

Uncertainty for US.

Heating degree days(from cold weather) have replaced cooling degree days(from hot weather) at this time of year.

Check in tomorrow to read something different............."low skill" (-:

Precip below:

National Weather Service 6-10 day, 8-14 day outlooks.

Updated just after 2pm CDT this afternoon. Warm West Coast, very chilly east of that and for much of the country is expected.

It came out as expected and also with a big increase in precipitation chances over most of the country.

Temperature Probability

Precipitation Probability

the 8-14 day outlooks ArchivesAnalogsLines-Only FormatGIS Data

Temperature Probability

12Z operational GFS model is MUCH, MUCH warmer! Instead of much below temps in the Midwest early in week 2, for instance, it has ABOVE normal temps.

gfs_namer_240_200_wnd_ht	gfs_namer_240_500_vort_ht
gfs_namer_240_1000_500_thick	gfs_namer_240_850_temp_ht

Seems to be a pattern the last couple weeks.  A warming forecast as the week ends, then it all changes over the weekend then we are up on Sunday night.  

Jim,

Yes, that does sound familiar. Maybe we won't wait for the weekend. The very mild 12Z operational GFS is looking like a big fat(too warm) outlier.

The 18z operational GFS is back to much colder.

              

gfs_namer_252_200_wnd_ht	gfs_namer_252_500_vort_ht
gfs_namer_252_1000_500_thick	gfs_namer_252_850_temp_ht

Extreme weather days 3-7:

Cold in the East, heavy rains in the south.

"Speculative" extreme weather days 8-14:

Heavy rains East Coast/Southeast?