oil seasonal pattern
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Started by bear - Oct. 17, 2018, 12:06 p.m.

folks, hurricane season is ending,  ...

the average for oil is down from mid oct,  to early December.  

is this leg of the oil bull dead for now?   

we'll see if we go down hard or just trade sideways for several weeks. 

Comments
By metmike - Oct. 17, 2018, 11:56 p.m.
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Bear,

You are right about the big negative seasonal. October/November, historically are the weakest months of the year for the liquid  energies..... natural gas too if temperatures are mild.

This year will be different for ng if November turns out very cold because of supplies being so low. However, this is the time of year that you don't want to be long ng unless there is a lot of cold in the forecast........and there was a lot of cold in the forecast earlier this week.


http://charts.equityclock.com/seasonal_charts/futures/FUTURE_CL1.PNG


By metmike - Oct. 18, 2018, 11:41 a.m.
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Crude 10 year price charts below.  


Major top? Down sharply this month. 


Crude 3 month chart

                   


Crude1year chart below


                   


Crude 5 year chart below

                   


Crude10 year chart below

               

                   
By metmike - Oct. 18, 2018, 11:43 a.m.
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Unleaded Gasoline Price Charts. Spike highs are in. Now well below the previous upside break out point.   

3 month                 

                   


1 Year                

                   


5 year

                   


10 Year                

                   
By metmike - Oct. 18, 2018, 11:45 a.m.
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Here are the gas prices at the pump. Should be much lower than this......can you say "price gouging" !!!!

The National Gas Price Heat Map from GasBuddy:

https://www.gasbuddy.com/GasPriceMap?z=4




By metmike - Oct. 18, 2018, 11:52 a.m.
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Weekly US ending stocks of crude oil. Peaked in March 2017 and had been falling sharply since then, to the lowest in 3.5 years........However, that trend was broken with 3 weeks in a row having huge increases.

https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WCRSTUS1&f=W

          


        

Weekly ending stocks for unleaded gasoline. Barely peaked in Feb 2017 but have not dropped much...........not that bullish.......pretty flat the last 3 weeks:

https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WGTSTUS1&f=W

  



Weekly US ending stocks for distillate fuel oil(heating oil-especially used in the Northeast). Peaked in Feb 2017 and had PLUNGED to the lowest in 4 years and almost the lowest in 10 years. 

However, distillate stocks increased a great deal Jul-2nd week in Sept. but have now dropped again since then, over the last 4 weeks but still well above the low point at the end of May 2018.

https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WDISTUS1&f=W