Weather Tuesday
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Started by metmike - Oct. 16, 2018, 10:51 a.m.

It's October 16th. Time flies!  Do something special for somebody to remember today! Seriously, don't just think about it for a moment......do it.


 Scroll down and  enjoy the latest comprehensive weather to the max!!


 The latest rain forecasts for the next week are below. Advertised pattern change is here. Upcoming week will feature, widespread dry weather for the Cornbelt.


Day 1 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_94qwbg.gif?1526306199054

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_94qwbg.gif?1531339983148

Day 2 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_98qwbg.gif?1528293750112


http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_98qwbg.gif?1531340045174


Day 3 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_99qwbg.gif?1528293842764

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_99qwbg.gif?1531340092706



Days 4-5 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1531339379

 Days 6-7 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/97ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/97ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1531339379

7 Day Total precipitation below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.govcdx /qpf/p168i.gif?1530796126






http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif?1530796126

Comments
By metmike - Oct. 16, 2018, 10:53 a.m.
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Excessive Rain threat


TX  and points just east/northeast.



Current Day 1 ForecastCurrent Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Forecast


Day 1 Threat Area in Text Format  



Current Day 2 ForecastCurrent Day 2 Excessive Rainfall Forecast


Day 3 forecast below

Current Day 3 Excessive Rainfall Forecast



Here are the latest hazards across the country. The dark purple is a freeze warning. The bright purple is a hard freeze warning.  The light/bright  blue is a freeze watch, darker/medium blue is a frost advisory.

Green is a flash flood watch.  Red is a flash flood warning.

                          https://www.spc.noaa.gov/  Go to "hazards"                                                                                       

                   

By metmike - Oct. 16, 2018, 10:54 a.m.
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High Temperatures today and Wednesday.


Temperatures continue over 30 deg. F cooler in many places compared to last week!!! Very warm in the far Southeast.

   


                  

By metmike - Oct. 16, 2018, 10:59 a.m.
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  Highs for days 3-7:

 
The very chilly  air will feature temperatures remaining 30+ degrees colder than the first 10 day of October............but the coldest air will be aimed farther east, towards the Midwest and especially the Northeast(where lots of people live and need heating) vs before, when the cold was aimed at the N.Plains.



http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY3_MAX_filled.gif

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY4_MAX_filled.gifhttp://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY5_MAX_filled.gifhttp://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY6_MAX_filled.gifhttp://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY7_MAX_filled.gif

          

How do these days 3-7 temperatures compare to average at this time of year?


 Magnitude of cold anomalies shrinks compared to before and location shifts east.


http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/hpcmaxwbg.gif


Low Temperature Departures:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/hpcminwbg.gif

                                    


       

Surface features for the same 3-7 day period:


Chilly Canadian high pressure in charge. Reinforcing cold fronts this week with slight moderation in between. Mostly dry weather as the atmosphere will be dried out. Cold is directed farther east compared to last week.

 

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif

                                   


  

Current Dew Points

Extraordinarily dry air in the Plains to Midwest! First freezes and frosts of the season happening.  


Current Dew Points

                                    


     

Latest radar loop.



http://www.nws.noaa.gov/radar_tab.php

Doppler Radar National Mosaic Loop

                                    


Rains the past 24 hours


                                    


    

You can go to this link to see rain totals from recent time periods:


https://water.weather.gov/precip/


                              Go to precipitation, then scroll down to pick a time frame. Hit states to get the borders to see locations better. Under products, you can hit "observed" or "Percent of normal"      



The rains below probably did some damage:


Craig Solberg@CraigSolberg                                              

     

6-day rainfall totals through 7 AM CDT on October 10, centered on the Kansas City area An area that could not buy a rain all summer gets 6-12" in a six-day time frame...in October

                                               

 

By metmike - Oct. 16, 2018, 11 a.m.
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Soil moisture anomaly:


Much too wet in a large area. Drying has commenced in all of the Midwest!!!

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Soilmst_Monitoring/Figures/daily/curr.w.anom.daily.gif

By metmike - Oct. 16, 2018, 11 a.m.
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Rains compared to average for the last 7, 14, 30 and 60 days. 

Usually not updated for previous day until late the next day.


Note how incredibly wet it's been over the past 60 days over eastern 2/3rds of the country!



https://www.atmos.illinois.edu/~snodgrss/Ag_Wx.html

http://weather.agribleservices.com/ahps/7_day_percent.png


http://weather.agribleservices.com/ahps/14_day_percent.png

http://weather.agribleservices.com/ahps/30_day_percent.pnghttp://weather.agribleservices.com/ahps/60_day_percent.png

By metmike - Oct. 16, 2018, 11:09 a.m.
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Temperature Anomalies from GFS ensembles(fairly reliable product) going out 2 weeks. These maps show the Northern Hemisphere. The map of the US is front center. Look for the state borders in  white.


Today:  The cold is here for awhile!.

 Very warm squeezed into the far southeast.NCEP Ensemble t = 024 hour forecast product



In 5+ days:

Cold escorted out stage east, moderation ahead of the next cold front. Warm West!
NCEP Ensemble t = 144 hour forecast product



In 10+ days: Magnitude of anomalies is not that great. Warm west, chilly eastward.
NCEP Ensemble t = 264 hour forecast product


Day 15:  Upper level ridge West with warm air. Upper level trough with chilly air downstream/Midwest/East.NCEP Ensemble t = 360 hour forecast product

By silverspiker - Oct. 16, 2018, 11:10 a.m.
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dude........



I feel like a tossed salad

By metmike - Oct. 16, 2018, 11:11 a.m.
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The low skill, longer range CFS model for weeks 3-4.


Strong Upper level ridge in Alaska/NW Canada/West Coast........... upper level trough downstream and very chilly temperatures for the eastern 1/2 of the USA in week 3. But this shifts east, along with warming.

Dry for harvest.


Heating degree days(from cold weather) have replaced cooling degree days(from hot weather) at this time of year.


Check in tomorrow to read something different............."low skill" (-:

 


http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/weekly/images/wk3.wk4_latest.NAsfcT.gif

Precip below:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/weekly/images/wk3.wk4_latest.NAprec.gif