KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Thursday, February 8, 2018
8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales
Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 1881.6K)
Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 409.7K)
Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 289.1K)
8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims
Jobless Claims (expected 233K; previous 230K)
Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous -1K)
Continuing Claims (previous 1953000)
Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous +13K)
9:45 AM ET. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 2197B)
Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous -99B)
12:00 PM ET. World Agricultural Supply & Demand Estimates (WASDE)
Corn, End Stocks (Bushels)
Soybeans, End Stocks (Bushels)
Wheat, End Stocks (Bushels)
12:00 PM ET. January Monthly U.S. Retail Chain Store Sales Index
2:00 PM ET. SEC Closed Meeting
4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings
4:30 PM ET. Money Stock Measures
4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings
Friday, February 9, 2018
10:00 AM ET. December Monthly Wholesale Trade
Inventories, M/M% (expected +0.2%; previous +0.8%)
Monday, February 12, 2018
2:00 PM ET. January Monthly Treasury Statement of Receipts & Outlays of the U.S. Govt.
N/A U.S. President Donald Trump releases Fiscal Year 2019 budget proposal today at the earliest
The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes ""
The March NASDAQ 100 closed lower on Wednesday as early session gains gave way to another round of selling on fears of rising interest rates in the coming months.The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish hinting that a short-term low might have been struck with Tuesday's low. Even is I am correct that a short-term low was posted on Tuesday, it does not suggest that market volatility will decline. If March extends the decline off January's high, the 38% retracement level of the 2017-2018-rally crossing at 6217.75 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 6821.34 are needed to temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 6821.34. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 7047.25. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 6260.25. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the 2017-2018-rally crossing at 6217.75.
The March S&P 500 closed lower on Wednesday as a sell off in the afternoon session erased early-session gains. Investors remain nervous and uncertain about direction in the current environment, which will likely to lead to continued volatile trading near-term. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 2789.66 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March extends the decline off January's high, the reaction low crossing at 2494.90 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2789.66. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 2878.40. First support is the 38% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 2529.20. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 2494.90.
The Dow posted another wild roller coaster trading session only to closed lower on Wednesday and remains below broken support marked by the 50-day moving average crossing at 25,085.64. Investors continue to struggle to adjust to an investment environment marked by both rising bond yields and signs of inflation. The Dow's failure to hold on to early-session gains coincided with a spike in the 10-year Treasury yield in the wake of the news of a two-year budget deal that would significantly raise fiscal spending.The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 25,847.87 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If the Dow extends the decline off January's high, November's low crossing at 23,242.75 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 25,847.87. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 26,529.44. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 23,778.74. Second support is November's low crossing at 23,242.75.
INTEREST RATES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=interest ""
March T-bonds closed down 1-10/32's at 144-23.
March T-bonds closed sharply lower on Wednesday as it extends the decline off December's high. Chicago Fed President Charles Evans said there is “a hint” of inflationary pressure in recent economic reports but not many actual increases in consumer prices. Therefore, the central bank can hold off raising rates until midyear in order to assess the incoming inflation data. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off December's high,weekly support crossing at 143-25 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 148-10 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 147-00. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 148-10. First support is Monday's low crossing at 144-03. Second support is weekly support crossing at 143-25.
March T-notes closed down 130/32's at 121-025.
March T-notes closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March resumes this winter's decline, weekly support crossing at 119.170 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 122.026 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 122.026. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 123.081. First support is Monday's low crossing at 120.180. Second support is weekly support crossing at 119.170.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
March crude oil posted its largest loss of the year on Wednesday andsettled at a one-month low, as a second weekly rise in U.S. crude stockpiles and record domestic production halted earlier attempts to rebound from a three-session decline.The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off January's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 60.94 is the next downside target. If March renews this winter's rally, the 62% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 70.29 is the next upside target. First resistance is January's high crossing at 66.66. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 70.29. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 60.94. Second support is the 25% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 59.59.
March heating oil closed sharply lower on Wednesday as it extends the decline off January's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night trading session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off January's high, the 38% retracement level of the June-January-rally crossing at 186.73 is the next downside target. Closes above last Friday's high crossing at 210.05 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 210.05. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 213.62. First support is the 38% retracement level of the June-January-rally crossing at 186.73. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the June-January-rally crossing at 178.42.
March unleaded gas closed sharply lower on Wednesday as it extends the decline off January's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the aforementioned decline, the 38% retracement level of the June-January-rally crossing at 169.62 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 187.28 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 187.28. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 193.93. First support is today's low crossing at 175.35. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the June-January-rally crossing at 169.62.
March Henry natural gas closed lower on Wednesday as it extends the decline off January's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the aforementioned decline, December's low crossing at 2.532 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.965 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.965. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 3.259. First support is January's low crossing at 2.693. Second support is December's low crossing at 2.532.
CURRENCIES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=currencies ""
The March Dollar closed higher on Wednesday driven by fears of rising interest rates coming later this year to keep inflation in check. Today's close above the 20-day moving average crossing at 89.78 confirms that a short-term low has been posted. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off January's low, the reaction high crossing at 90.76 is the next upside target. If March resumes the decline off December's high, weekly support crossing at 87.45 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 90.76. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 91.54. First support is January's low crossing at 88.25. Second support is weekly support crossing at 87.45.
The March Euro closed lower on Wednesday and below the 20-day moving average crossing at 123.41 confirming that a short-term top has been posted. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March renews the rally off November's low, monthly resistance crossing at 126.74 is the next upside target. First resistance is January's high crossing at 125.76. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at 126.74. First support is the reaction low crossing at 122.09. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 121.06.
The March British Pound closed lower on Wednesday and below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3987 confirming that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off January's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3684 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.4110 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.4110. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 1.4370. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 1.3857. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3684.
The March Swiss Franc closed sharply lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0580 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March resumes the rally off October's low, the 38% retracement level of the 2015-2016-decline crossing at 1.0994 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Thursday's high crossing at 1.0829. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2015-2016-decline crossing at 1.0994. First support is today's low crossing at 1.0608. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0580.
The March Canadian Dollar closed lower on Wednesday as it extends the decline off last Wednesday's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off last Wednesday's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 79.47 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 80.70 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the September-December-decline crossing at 81.41. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the September-December-decline crossing at 82.04. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 79.47. Second support is January's low crossing at 79.48.
The March Japanese Yen closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.9114 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If March renews the rally off December's low, the 87% retracement level of the September-November-decline crossing at 0.9288 is the next upside target. First resistance is January's high crossing at 0.9260. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the September-November-decline crossing at 0.9288. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.9114. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.8996.
PRECIOUS METALS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=metals ""
April gold closed sharply lower on Wednesday as it extended the decline off January's high. The rising US Dollar weighted heavily on gold today sending it to its lowest price level in a month. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April extends the decline off January's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 1307.80 is the next downside target. Closes above Tuesday's high crossing at 1349.30 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is January's high crossing at 1370.50. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 1396.20. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1307.80. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the December-January-rally crossing at 1291.60.
March silver closed sharply lower on Wednesday as it extends the decline off January's high. The low-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off January's high, the reaction low crossing at 16.140 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 17.032 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the September-December-decline crossing at 17.686. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the September-November-decline crossing at 18.015. First support is the reaction low crossing at 16.140. Second support is December's low crossing at 15.635.
March copper closed sharply lower on Wednesday as it renewed its decline off December's high.The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off December's high, the 75% retracement level of December's rally crossing at 303.58 is the next downside target. Closes above Monday's high crossing at 325.75 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 325.75. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 332.20. First support is the 62% retracement level of December's rally crossing at 308.61. Second support is the 75% retracement level of December's rally crossing at 303.58.
GRAINS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
March Corn closed up 1 1/2-cents at 3.65.
March corn closed higher on Wednesday following yesterday's key reversal up and tested resistance marked by the 25% retracement level of the July-January-decline crossing at 3.65 1/2. Trade estimates are out ahead of Thursday’s weekly export sales report from USDA, including corn export estimates that range between 51.2 million and 74.8 million bushels. Industry analysts now predict the 2017/18 Brazil corn production will come in slightly higher, with 997.6 million bushels, compared to January estimates of 994.8 million bushels. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off January's low, October's high crossing at 3.69 1/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.55 1/2 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 25% retracement level of the July-January-decline crossing at 3.65 1/2. Second resistance is last October's high crossing at 3.69 1/4. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.55 1/2. Second support is January's low crossing at 3.45 1/2.
March wheat closed up 14 3/4-cents at 4.61.
March wheat closed sharply higher on Wednesday as it renewed the rally off January's low. Today's rally was supported by healthy export expectations and dry weather forecast across the U.S. Plains. Trade estimates for USDA’s weekly export sales report, out Thursday, range between 7.3 million and 18.4 million bushels for wheat. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off January's low, last September's high crossing at 4.82 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.36 3/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted.First resistance is today's high crossing at 4.61 3/4. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 4.82. First support is January's low crossing at 4.13 1/4. Second support is December's low crossing at 4.10 1/2.
March Kansas City Wheat closed up 12-cents at 4.81.
March Kansas City wheat posted its highest close since last August as it closed sharply higher on Wednesday. Dry weather concerns along with a dry weather forecast for the region led to an upside breakout of a six-day trading range today. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's high, the 38% retracement level of 2017's trading range crossing at 4.88 1/2. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.45 1/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 4.82 3/4. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of 2017's trading range crossing at 4.88 1/2. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 4.61. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.45 1/4.
March Minneapolis wheat closed up 4-cents at 6.12 1/4.
March Minneapolis wheat closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 6.16 1/4 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. If March extends the decline off January's high, the 87% retracement level of the April-July-rally crossing at 5.89 1/2 is the next downside target. First resistance is January's high crossing at 6.34 1/2. Second resistance is the reaction high resistance crossing at 6.51. First support is Monday's low crossing at 6.00. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the April-July-rally crossing at 5.89 1/2.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
March soybeans closed down 2 1/4-cents at 9.84.
March soybeans closed lower on Wednesday as it consolidated some of Tuesday's gains. Soybeans were pressured by relatively low trade export expectations for Thursday's export sales report. Trade estimates for USDA’s weekly export sales report, out Thursday, range between 14.7 million and 29.4 million bushels for soybeans. Private analysts are predicting higher Brazil soybean yields than forecast ed in January. Currently, total soybean production is estimated at 4.137 billion bushels, versus estimates of 4.049 billion bushels a month ago. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI will need to see additional gains before turning neutral to bullish. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 9.86 3/4 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March resumes the decline off January's high, the reaction low crossing at 9.61 1/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the December-January-decline crossing at 10.06 1/4. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the December-January-decline crossing at 10.16 1/4. First support is the reaction low crossing at 9.61 1/4. Second support is January's low crossing at 9.44 1/2.
March soybean meal closed up $4.00 at 335.70.
March soybean meal closed higher on Wednesday as it consolidated some of the decline off January's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Today's close above the 10-day moving average crossing at 335.10 confirms that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews the decline off January's high, minor support crossing at 323.30 is the next downside target. First resistance is January's high crossing at 348.50. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 351.20. First support is Monday's low crossing at 326.20. Second support is January's low crossing at 310.30.
March soybean oil closed down 60 pts. At 32.56.
March soybean oil closed sharply lower on Wednesday leaving yesterday's key reversal up unconfirmed. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 33.22 would open the door for additional gains near-term. If March renews the decline off January's high, last June's low crossing at 31.85 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 33.22. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 34.10. First support is January's low crossing at 32.10. Second support is last June's low crossing at 31.85.
LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock
April hogs closed down $2.20 at $69.23.
April hogs closed sharply lower on Wednesday as it extends the decline off January's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April extends the decline off January's high, the 75% retracement level of the August-January-rally crossing at 68.07 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 73.95 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 74.13. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 77.25. First support is today's low 68.87. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the August-January-rally crossing at 68.07.
April cattle closed down $0.60 at 123.97.
April cattle closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 123.28 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If April extends the rally off January's low, November's high crossing at 130.10 is the next upside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 127.38. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 130.10. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 123.28. Second support is January's low crossing at 118.05.
March Feeder cattle closed down $0.43 at $148.30.
March Feeder cattle closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 146.26 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off December's low, the reaction high crossing at 154.05 is the next upside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 154.05. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 156.13. First support is the reaction low crossing at 142.42. Second support is January's low crossing at 140.13.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
March coffee closed higher on Wednesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 12.39 are needed to confirms that a short-term low has been posted. If March resumes the decline off January's high, December's low crossing at 11.83 is the next downside target.
March cocoa posted a key reversal down with today's lower close. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 19.73 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off December's low, the 75% retracement level of the November-December-decline crossing at 21.20 is the next upside target.
March sugar closed higher on Wednesday as it extends the rally off January's low. The high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off January's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 14.23 is the next upside target. If March renews the decline off January's high, the September-2015 low crossing at 12.72 is the next downside target.
March cotton closed lower on Wednesday as it extends the decline off January's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off January's high, the 50% retracement level of the October-January-rally crossing at 75.65 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 80.05 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.