Excessive Rain threat

Mostly Texas......but also points just northeast.

Current Day 1 Forecast

Day 1 Threat Area in Text Format  

Current Day 2 Forecast

Day 3 forecast below

Severe Storm Risk.

Mainly Texas.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/

Current Day 1 Outlook
Current Day 2 Outlook
Current Day 3 Outlook
Current Day 4-8 Outlook

        High Temperatures today and Monday.

Temperatures continue over 30 deg. F cooler in many places compared to last week!!!

           Highs for days 3-7:

 
The very chilly  air will feature temperatures remaining 30+ degrees colder than recent days.............but the coldest air is aimed farther east, towards the Midwest/Northeast vs before, when the cold was aimed at the Plains.

How do these days 3-7 temperatures compare to average at this time of year?

 Magnitude of cold anomalies shrinks compared to before and location shifts.

Low Temperature Departures:

Surface features for the same 3-7 day period:

Chilly Canadian high pressure in charge. Reinforcing cold fronts next week with slight moderation in between. Mostly dry weather as the atmosphere will be dried out. 

Current Dew Points

Extremely dry air in the northern half of the country.

Latest radar loop.

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/radar_tab.php

Rains the past 24 hours

You can go to this link to see rain totals from recent time periods:

https://water.weather.gov/precip/

                              Go to precipitation, then scroll down to pick a time frame. Hit states to get the borders to see locations better. Under products, you can hit "observed" or "Percent of normal"      

Craig Solberg‏ @CraigSolberg                                              

6-day rainfall totals through 7 AM CDT on October 10, centered on the Kansas City area An area that could not buy a rain all summer gets 6-12" in a six-day time frame...in October

Soil moisture anomaly:

Much too wet in a large area. Drying has commenced in the north!!!

The 2nd map gets updated once a week.

Rains compared to average for the last 7, 14, 30 and 60 days. 

Usually not updated for previous day until late the next day.

Note how incredibly wet it's been over the past 60 days over eastern 2/3rds of the country!

https://www.atmos.illinois.edu/~snodgrss/Ag_Wx.html

The top map is the Canadian ensemble average, the maps below are the individual members that make up the average

End of week 2....................0Z ensembles from Sunday. The average is mild/zonal flow but some of the individual members are much different.

Dry pattern...........but some solutions increasing precip again.

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Each member is like the parent, Canadian model operational model.......with a slight tweek/variation in parameters. Since we know the equations to represent the physics of the atmosphere in the models are not perfect, its useful to vary some of the equations that are uncertain(can make a difference) to see if it effects the outcome and how.

The average of all these variations(ensembles) often yields a better tool for forecasting. It's always more consistent. The individual operational model, like each individual ensemble member can vary greatly from run to run.........and represent an extreme end of the spectrum at times. The ensemble average of all the members, because it averages the extremes.............from opposite ends of the spectrum............changes much less from run to run.

360h GZ 500 forecast valid on Oct 29, 2018 00 UTC

emperature Anomalies from GFS ensembles(fairly reliable product) going out 2 weeks. These maps show the Northern Hemisphere. The map of the US is front center. Look for the state borders in  white.

Today:  Cold getting well entrenched.

In 5+ days:

Some moderation, cold escorted rapidly eastward.......but possible changes after this with new cold waves.

In 10+ days: On this model, we have a ridge west/trough east and more cold aimed at the Midwest/East.

Day 15:  Upper level ridge NW Canada, upper level trough East.......at least on the GFS Ensembles. This would be chilly, dry northwest flow for the Midwest/East. Great uncertainty for this time frame.

The low skill, longer range CFS model for weeks 3-4.

Strong Upper level ridge in Alaska/NW Canada/West Coast...........will it shift east? or will there be an upper level trough downstream?

Dry weather in the Midwest to accelerate harvest.

Heating degree days(from cold weather) have replaced cooling degree days(from hot weather) at this time of year.

Check in tomorrow to read something different............."low skill" (-:

Precip below:

NWS 6-10 day and 8-14 day forecasts:

Very dry pattern Midwest!

Warm West, chilly East.

Temperature Probability

Precipitation Probability

8 to 14 day forecast below:

Temperature Probability

Precipitation Probability

I still don't see any reason to short NG

As of noon MDT, Denver is a whopping 42 colder than 24 hours earlier: from 62 F/sunny/29.75"pressure/SE winds to 20 F/snow/30.27" pressure/N winds! Normal afternoon temp there is in the 60s like yesterday.

rain here this am, rain tomorrow.....cold drizzle and fog here right now with tons of beans in the field yet....have had very few good bean days this fall...corn harvest moving along well

Thanks jim/mcfarm/larry,

The extended(ridge west/trough east) is colder in the Midwest/East than Friday and bullish for the natural gas early trading tonight!

If that changes to warm, then there will be plenty reason to short natural gas(we made new lows for the week on Friday and closed down there) but with low supplies, it's going to stay volatile and we can make new highs if more cold is added.