KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Monday, October 15, 2018
8:30 AM ET. September Advance Monthly Sales for Retail & Food Services
Overall Sales-SA, M/M% (previous +0.1%)
Sales, Ex-Auto, M/M% (previous +0.3%)
Sales, Ex-Auto & Gas, M/M% (previous +0.2%)
8:30 AM ET. October Empire State Manufacturing Survey
Mfg Idx (previous 19.0)
Employment Idx (previous 13.3)
New Orders Idx (previous 16.5)
Prices Received (previous 16.3)
10:00 AM ET. August Manufacturing & Trade: Inventories & Sales
Total Inventories (previous +0.6%)
The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes ""
The December NASDAQ 100 closed higher on Friday as it consolidated some of the decline off October's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off October's high, the 62% retracement level of the February-October-rally crossing at 6898.35. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 7487.40 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 7395.15. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 7728.75. First support is Thursday's low crossing at 6907.75. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the February-October-rally crossing at 6898.35.
The December S&P 500 closed higher on Friday as it extended the decline off October's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off October's high, the 62% retracement level of the April-September-rally crossing at 2720.80 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 2893.29 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is September's high crossing at 2945.50. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 62% retracement level of the April-September-rally crossing at 2720.80. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the April-September-rally crossing at 2672.69.
The Dow posted an inside day with a higher close on Friday as it consolidated some of the decline off October's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If the Dow extends the decline off October's high, the 62% retracement level of the April-September-rally crossing at 24,721.54 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 26,327.23 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is October's high crossing at 26,951.81. Second resistance is psychological resistance crossing at 27,000. First support is Thursday's low crossing at 24,899.77. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the April-September-rally crossing at 24,721.54.
INTEREST RATES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=interest ""
December T-bonds closed down 17/32's at 138-10.
December T-bonds closed lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 139-13 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December resumes the decline off August's high, monthly support crossing at 134-04 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 139-13. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 141-04. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 136-16. Second support is weekly support crossing at 134-04.
December T-notes closed down 85-points at 118-040.
December T-notes closed lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 118.132 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December resumes the decline off August's high, monthly support crossing at 114.192 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 118.132. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 119.000. First support is Monday's low crossing at 117.135. Second support is monthly support crossing at 114.192.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
November crude oil closed higher due to short covering on Friday as it consolidated some of the decline off October's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. If November extends this week's decline, the 50-day moving average crossing at 69.48 is the next downside target. Closes above Tuesday's high crossing at 75.28 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is October's high crossing at 76.90. Second resistance isthe 75% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 77.22.First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 69.48. Second support is September's low crossing at 66.67.
November heating oil closed slightly lower on Friday and below the 20-day moving average crossing at 233.19 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night trading session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If November extends the decline off October's high the 50-day moving average crossing at 224.47 is the next downside target. First resistance is October's high crossing at 245.00. Second resistance is the November-2014 high crossing at 254.68. First support is today's low crossing at 229.53. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 224.47.
November unleaded gas closed higher due to short covering on Friday as it consolidates some of the decline off October's high but remains below the 50-day moving average crossing at 197.74. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If November extends this week's decline, August's low crossing at 184.02 is the next downside target. Closes above Tuesday's high crossing at 209.98 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is October's high crossing at 215.00. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at 217.77. First support is September's low crossing at 191.30. Second support is August's low crossing at 184.02.
November Henry natural gas closed lower on Friday as it consolidated some of the rally off September's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.085 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If November renews the aforementioned rally, the July-2015 high crossing at 3.457 is the next upside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 3.368. Second resistance is the July-2015 high crossing at 3.457. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.085. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.978.
CURRENCIES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=currencies ""
The December Dollar closed higher on Friday as it consolidated some of the decline off Tuesday's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 94.62 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December resumes the rally off September's low, August's high crossing at 96.45 is the next upside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 95.84. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 96.45. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 94.62. Second support is September's low crossing at 93.39.
The December Euro closed lower on Friday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 116.88 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. If December resumes the decline off September's high, August's low crossing at 114.09 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 116.88. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 118.93. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 114.93. Second support is August's low crossing at 114.09.
The December British Pound closed lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends this week's rally, September's high crossing at 1.3350 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Thursday's low crossing at 1.2963 would renew the decline off September's high. First resistance is September's high crossing at 1.3350. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 1.3435. First support is September's low crossing at 1.2845. Second support is August's low crossing at 1.2735.
The December Swiss Franc closed lower on Friday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off September's high, July's low crossing at 1.0082 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0295 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.0166. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0295. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 1.0106. Second support is July's low crossing at 1.0082.
The December Canadian Dollar lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off October's high, the reaction low crossing at 76.56 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 77.28 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is October's high crossing at 78.36. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2017-2018 decline crossing at 78.72. First support is the reaction low crossing at 76.56. Second support is September's low crossing at 75.75.
The December Japanese Yen closed slightly lower on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday’s night session begins trading. If December extends this week's rally, the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0900 is the next upside target. If December renews the decline off August's high, the 87% retracement level of the 2015-2016 rally crossing at 0.0876 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0900. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 0.0912. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 0.0877. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2015-2016 rally crossing at 0.0876.
PRECIOUS METALS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=metals ""
December gold closed lower on Friday as it consolidates some of Thursday's rally but remains above broken trading range resistance crossing at 1220.70.The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher are possible near-term. If December extends Thursday's trading range breakout, the 38% retracement level of the April-August-Decline crossing at 1251.30 is the next upside target. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 1184.30 would open the door for a possible test of August's low crossing at 1167.10. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 1230.00. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the April-August-Decline crossing at 1251.30. First support is the reaction low crossing at 1184.30. Second support is August's low crossing at 1167.10.
December silver closed higher on Friday. The mid-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above last-Tuesday's high crossing at 14.950 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional gains near-term. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at 14.950. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 15.070. First support is September's low crossing at 13.965. Second support is the December-2015 low on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 13.620.
December copper closed higher on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December renews the rally off August's low, the reaction high crossing at 288.85 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 272.72 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 288.85. Second resistance is the July-5th gap crossing at 293.10. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 272.72. Second support is August's low crossing at 257.45.
GRAINS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
December Corn closed up 4-cents at 3.73 1/4.
December corn closed higher on Friday as it extends the rally off September's low.The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI diverging and are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off September's low, the 50% retracement level of the May-September-decline crossing at 3.85 1/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.61 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the May-September-decline crossing at 3.74 3/4. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the May-September-decline crossing at 3.85 1/4. First support is Thursday's low crossing at 3.60 1/4. Second support is reaction low crossing at 3.54 1/2.
December wheat closed up 9 3/4-cents at 5.17 3/4.
December wheat closed higher on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December resumes the rally off September's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.34 is the next upside target. If December resumes the decline off September's high, September's low crossing at 4.95 1/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction crossing at 5.32 3/4. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.34. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at 5.05 1/4. Second support is September's low crossing at 4.95 1/4.
December Kansas City Wheat closed up 10 1/2-cents at 5.24 1/4.
December Kansas City wheat closed higher on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December resumes the rally off September's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.41 is the next upside target. If December renews the decline off September's high, September's low crossing at 4.98 3/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 5.35 3/4. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.41. First support is October's low crossing at 5.06 1/2. Second support is September's low crossing at 4.98 3/4.
December Minneapolis wheat closed up 6 1/2-cents at 5.96.
December Minneapolis wheat closed higher on Friday.The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.94 1/4 would open the door for a possible test of the August 31st reaction high crossing at 6.02. Closes below last-Monday's low crossing at 5.72 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.94 1/4. Second resistance is the August 31st high crossing at 6.02. First support is last-Monday's low crossing at 5.72. Second support is September's low crossing at 5.60 1/4.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
November soybeans closed up 9 1/4-cents at 8.67 1/2.
November soybeans closed higher on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If November resumes the rally off September's low, the reaction high crossing at 907 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 8.51 1/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 8.74 3/4. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 9.07. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 8.51 1/4. Second support is September's low crossing at 8.12 1/4.
December soybean meal closed down $0.40 at 316.40.
December soybean meal closed slightly lower on Friday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 312.60 would signal that a double top with September's high was posted on Monday. If December resumes the decline off July's high, the 87% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 289.50 is the next downside target. If December extends the rally off September's low, the reaction high crossing at 339.40 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 322.40. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 339.40. First support is September's low crossing at 301.60. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 289.50.
December soybean oil closed up 36 pts. at 29.38.
December soybean oil closed higher on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December resumes the rally off September's low, the 38% retracement level of the 2017-2018 decline crossing at 30.53 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 28.66 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 30.01. Second resistance is the the 38% retracement level of the 2017-2018 decline crossing at 30.53. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 28.66. Second support is September's low crossing at 27.13.
LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock
December hogs closed up $0.58 at $55.00.
December hogs closed higher on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 54.06 would open the door for additional weakness near-term. If December renews the rally off August low, June's high crossing at 60.75 is the next upside target. First resistance is October's high crossing at 59.95. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 60.75. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 54.06. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 50.07.
December cattle closed down $0.60 at 116.18.
December cattle closed lower on Friday as it extends the decline off October's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off October's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 115.51 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 117.95 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is October's high crossing at 119.75. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 122.88. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 115.51. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 113.80.
November Feeder cattle closed down $2.13 at $154.63.
November Feeder cattle closed lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remains neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends this week's decline, the 50-day moving average crossing at 153.76 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Friday's high crossing at 158.18 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is October's high crossing at 159.58. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 159.90. First support is today's low crossing at 154.45. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 153.76.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
December coffee closed higher on Friday as it extends the rally off September's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the aforementioned rally, the 62% retracement level of the May-September-decline crossing at 117.61 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 10.41 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.
December cocoa closed higher on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 21.96 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If September resumes the decline off August's high, the December-2017 low crossing at 18.71 is the next downside target.
March sugar closed higher on Friday. The mid-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the aforementioned rally, the 38% retracement level of the 2016-2018-decline crossing at 13.86 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 11.68 would temper the near-term friendly outlook.
December cotton closed higher on Friday and above the 20-day moving average crossing at 77.70 confirming that a short-term low has been posted. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off October's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 81.07 is the next upside target. If December resumes decline off July's high, the 62% retracement level of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 74.00 is the next downside target.
Thanks tallpine!