For weather that effects the natural gas market for residential heating demand:
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/15020/
From Natural Gas Intelligence:
November Natural Gas Steady Amid Slight Cooler Trends, Michael Demand Destruction
metmike: The chill for the next week is dialed in. Week 2 is not as chilly but it could turn cooler.
Storage is Very Low for this time of year!!
Storage is below the bottom of the previous 5 year range and also almost 700 bcf below last year at this time!
This is why the temperature forecast matters....in the Summer/cooling season and Winter/heating season. We have a spike up of early season residential heating demand this week into next week.
EIA report +90 bcf
Reported as neutral to the market(I thought is was a tad bearish)
| Working gas in underground storage, Lower 48 states Summary textCSVJSN | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Historical Comparisons | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Stocks billion cubic feet (Bcf) | Year ago (10/05/17) | 5-year average (2013-17) | |||||||||||||||||||||||
| Region | 10/05/18 | 09/28/18 | net change | implied flow | Bcf | % change | Bcf | % change | |||||||||||||||||
| East | 790 | 763 | 27 | 27 | 881 | -10.3 | 869 | -9.1 | |||||||||||||||||
| Midwest | 871 | 836 | 35 | 35 | 1,019 | -14.5 | 1,004 | -13.2 | |||||||||||||||||
| Mountain | 180 | 177 | 3 | 3 | 223 | -19.3 | 210 | -14.3 | |||||||||||||||||
| Pacific | 262 | 262 | 0 | 0 | 314 | -16.6 | 340 | -22.9 | |||||||||||||||||
| South Central | 854 | 829 | 25 | 25 | 1,146 | -25.5 | 1,139 | -25.0 | |||||||||||||||||
| Salt | 191 | 181 | 10 | 10 | 309 | -38.2 | 300 | -36.3 | |||||||||||||||||
| Nonsalt | 663 | 648 | 15 | 15 | 836 | -20.7 | 840 | -21.1 | |||||||||||||||||
| Total | 2,956 | 2,866 | 90 | 90 | 3,583 | -17.5 | 3,563 | -17 | |||||||||||||||||
These are the temperatures that were used for that report.
Natural Gas price charts
We finally broke out above $3! The market opened higher on Sunday evening and built on those gains from this upcoming cold but has been very volatile. Earlier today, Friday, we spiked down and made new lows for the week.
Week 1 weather had been very bullish with chilly temps but we have traded that all week...it's old news. Late week 2 temperatures are uncertain. Doesn't look as cold as this week. However, we could have northwest flow and stay cool and add more bullishness.
| Natural gas 3 months |
Naturalgas 1 year below
Naturalgas 5 years below
| Naturalgas10years below
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Previous comments:
Nothing is bearish until we catch up to last year. Year over year over year, storage trend is down and record supply isn't keeping up.
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By metmike - Oct. 11, 2018, 4:25 p.m.
Natural gas may have been rescued today by a much colder late morning 12z GFS.
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Started by Jim:
Re: NG- weather and the Farmers Almanac
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/14992/
What's it going to be? Teeth chattering or a mild winter. Only time will tell I guess. Even the 2 versions of the Almanac apparently don't agree.
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By MarkB - Oct. 12, 2018, 1:49 a.m.
Can't say that I have ever seen a second version of the Farmer's Almanac. But I have known them to be somewhat wrong. On occassion. Recently. Things are a changing.Both in the weather, and in the future of commodities. How can it be otherwise?
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By Jim_M - Oct. 12, 2018, 2:36 a.m.
I didn't know there were 2 versions either. Might have to Google that.
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By patrick - Oct. 12, 2018, 8:16 a.m.
(Old) Farmer's Almanac?!
Stuff and nonsense.
The woolly bear caterpillars are fatter than ever.
Gonna be a long, cold, snowy winter.