KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Thursday, October 11, 2018
8:30 AM ET. September CPI
CPI, M/M% (expected +0.2%; previous +0.2%)
Core CPI, M/M% (expected +0.2%; previous +0.1%)
Energy Idx, M/M% (previous +1.9%)
Food Idx, M/M% (previous +0.1%)
Real Avg Wkly Pay-Infla Adj, M/M% (previous +0.1%)
CPI, Y/Y% (expected +2.4%; previous +2.7%)
Core Annual, Y/Y% (expected +2.3%; previous +2.2%)
8:30 AM ET. September Real Earnings
8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims
Jobless Claims (expected 210K; previous 207K)
Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous -8K)
Continuing Claims (previous 1650000)
Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous -13K)
9:45 AM ET. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 2866B)
Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous +98B)
11:00 AM ET. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Crude Oil Stocks (Bbl) (previous 403.964M)
Crude Oil Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +7.975M)
Gasoline Stocks (Bbl) (previous 235.221M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -0.459M)
Distillate Stocks (Bbl) (previous 136.131M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -1.75M)
Refinery Usage (previous 90.4%)
Total Prod Supplied (Bbl/day) (previous 20.174M)
Total Prod Supplied, Net Chg (Bbl/day) (previous +0.175M)
12:00 PM ET. World Agricultural Supply & Demand Estimates (WASDE)
Corn, End Stocks (Bushels)
Soybeans, End Stocks (Bushels)
Wheat, End Stocks (Bushels)
12:00 PM ET. September Monthly U.S. Retail Chain Store Sales Index
1:00 PM ET. SEC Open Meeting
2:00 PM ET. September Monthly Treasury Statement of Receipts & Outlays of the U.S. Govt
4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings
4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings
4:30 PM ET. Money Stock Measures
Friday, October 12, 2018
8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales
Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 1431.1K)
Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 1525.2K)
Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 435.4K)
8:30 AM ET. September Import & Export Price Indexes
Import Prices (expected +0.2%; previous -0.6%)
Non-Petroleum Prices (previous -0.2%)
Petroleum Prices (previous -3.9%)
10:00 AM ET. October University of Michigan Survey of Consumers – preliminary
Mid-Mo Sentiment (expected 100.0; previous 100.8)
Mid-Mo Expectations (previous 91.1)
Mid-Mo Current Idx (previous 116.1)
The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=indexes"
The STOCK INDEXES:The December NASDAQ 100 was lower in overnight trading as it extended Wednesday's huge decline. Lower U.S. stock-index futures point to continued selling on the heels of a more than 800-point plunge for the Dow industrials on Wednesday. The broad market decline on Wednesday extended into Asia overnight after investors spooked by rising bond yields and the prospect of U.S. interest rates heading higher continued to liquidate long positions.Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the aforementioned decline, the 62% retracement level of the April-September-rally crossing at 6898.35 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 7504.56 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 7438.63. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 7728.75. First support is the 62% retracement level of the April-September-rally crossing at 6898.35. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the April-September-rally crossing at 6720.95.
The December S&P 500 was was lower overnight as it extends Wednesday's huge decline. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the aforementioned decline, the 62% retracement level of the April-September-rally crossing at 2720.80 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 2900.78 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 2882.86. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 2945.50. First support is the overnight low crossing at 2747.20. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the April-September-rally crossing at 2720.80.
INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"
INTEREST RATES: December T-bonds were lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher price are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 139-18 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December extends the decline off August's high, monthly support crossing at 134-04 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 138-15. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 139-18. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 136-16. Second support is monthly support crossing at 134-04.
December T-notes was slightly lower in late-overnight trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 118.146 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December resumes the decline off August's high, monthly support crossing at 114.192 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 118.146. Second resistance is the September 28th reaction high crossing at 119.000. First support is Monday's low crossing at 117.135. Second support is monthly support crossing at 114.192.
ENERGY MARKETS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=energy"
ENERGY MARKETS:NovemberNymex crude oil was lower overnight as it extends the decline off October's high. The overnight decline was unable to escape the downward pull of a global equity rout that may also reflect concerns about global economic growth prospects. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 72.49 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If November resumes the rally off August's low, the 75% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 77.23 is the next upside target. First resistance is October's high crossing at 76.90. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 77.23. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 72.49. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 69.42.
November heating oil was lower overnight as it extends the decline off October's high. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 232.75 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If November resumes the rally off August's low, the November-2014 high crossing at 254.68 is the next upside target. First resistance is October's high crossing at 245.00. Second resistance is the November-2014 high crossing at 254.68. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 232.75. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 224.14.
November unleaded gas was lower overnight as it extends the decline off October's high. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 197.77 would open the door for additional weakness near-term and a possible test of September's low crossing at 191.30 later this month. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 208.08 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 208.08. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 215.00. Third resistance ismonthly resistance crossing at 217.77. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 197.77. Second support is September's low crossing at 191.30.
November Henry natural gas was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off September's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.066 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If November extends the rally off September's low, the July-2015 high crossing at 3.457 is the next upside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 3.368. Second resistance is the July-2015 high crossing at 3.457. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 3.198. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.066.
CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"
CURRENCIES:The December Dollar was lower overnight as it extends the decline off Tuesday's high. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 94.62 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December resumes the rally off September's low, August's high crossing at 96.45 is the next upside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 95.84. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 96.45. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 94.62. Second support is September's low crossing at 93.39.
The December Euro was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off September's high. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 116.91 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. If December extends the aforementioned decline, August's low crossing at 114.09 is the next downside target. First resistance is September's high crossing at 118.93. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 119.36. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 114.93. Second support is August's low crossing at 114.09.
The December British Pound was higher overnight.Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off last-week's low, September's high crossing at 1.3350 is the next upside target. If December resumes the decline off September's high, September's low crossing at 1.2845 is the next downside target. First resistance is September's high crossing at 1.3350. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 1.3435. First support is September's low crossing at 1.2845. Second support is August's low crossing at 1.2735.
The December Swiss Franc was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off September's high. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off September's high, July's low crossing at 1.0082 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0310 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.0179. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0310. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 1.0106. Second support is July's low crossing at 1.0082.
The December Canadian Dollar was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidated some of Wednesday's decline. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off October's high, the reaction low crossing at 76.94 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 77.45 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 77.45. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 78.35. First support is the September 27th low crossing at 76.56. Second support is September's low crossing at 75.75.
The December Japanese Yen was slightly lower overnight as it consolidated some of the rally off October's low. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off October's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0901 is the next upside target. If December renews the decline off August's high, the 87% retracement level of the 2015-2016 rally crossing at 0.0876 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0901. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 0.0912. First support is October's low crossing at 0.0877. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2015-2016 rally crossing at 0.0876.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"
PRECIOUS METALS: December gold was higher overnight as it extends the trading range of the past two-months. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 1220.70 are needed to confirm an upside breakout of the aforementioned trading range. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 1184.30 would open the door for a possible test of August's low crossing at 1167.10. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1220.70. Second resistance is the July-26th reaction high crossing at 1244.60. First support is the reaction low crossing at 1184.30. Second support is August's low crossing at 1167.10.
December silver was higher overnight as it consolidates some of this week's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below Wednesday's low crossing at 14.255 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. Closes above last-Tuesday's high crossing at 14.950 would renew the rally off September's low. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at 14.950. Second resistance is the August 28th reaction high crossing at 15.070. First support is September's low crossing at 13.965. Second support is the December-2015 low on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 13.620.
December copper was lower overnight. The mid-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 272.51 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December resumes the rally off September's low, the July 25th reaction high crossing at 288.85 is the next upside target. First resistance is the July 25th reaction high crossing at 288.85. Second resistance is the July 10th reaction high crossing at 290.20. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 272.51. Second support is September's low crossing at 258.00.
GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains
December corn was lower overnight as traders continue to square positions ahead of today's monthly supply-demand report. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.59 3/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. Closes above September's high crossing at 3.69 3/4 are needed to confirm that the intermediate-trend has turned sideways to higher. First resistance is September's high crossing at 3.69 3/4. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the May-September-decline crossing at 3.75 1/2. First support is the reaction low crossing at 3.54 1/2. Second support is September's low crossing at 3.42 1/2.
December wheat was lower overnight. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December resumes the decline off the late-September high, last-Tuesday's low crossing at 5.05 1/4 is the next downside target. If December renews the rally off September's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.35 1/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.35 1/4. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 5.49 1/2. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at 5.05 1/4. Second support is September's low crossing at 4.95 1/4.
December Kansas City Wheat closed down 3 1/4-cents at 5.16 1/2.
December Kansas City wheat closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December renews the decline off September's high, September's low crossing at 4.98 3/4 is the next downside target. If December resumes the rally off September's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.44 is the next upside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 5.35 3/4. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.44. First support is October's low crossing at 5.06 1/2. Second support is September's low crossing at 4.98 3/4.
December Minneapolis wheat was steady to fractionally higher overnight as it extends the trading range of the past six-days. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are still possible. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 5.98 3/4 would open the door for additional gains and a possible test of the August 31st high crossing at 6.02. Closes below last-Monday's low crossing at 5.72 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 5.98 3/4. Second resistance is the August 31st high crossing at 6.02. First support is last-Monday's low crossing at 5.72. Second support is September's low crossing at 5.60 1/4.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
November soybeans were lower overnight as traders continue to square positions ahead of the release of today's monthly supply-demand report. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 8.49 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If November extends the rally off September's low, the 38% retracement level of the May-September-decline crossing at 9.07 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 25% retracement level of the May-September-decline crossing at 8.74. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the May-September-decline crossing at 9.07. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 8.49. Second support is September's low crossing at 8.12 1/4.
December soybean meal was lower overnight while extending the trading range of the past four-weeks. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average would signal that a double top with September's high was likely posted on Monday. Closes above Monday's high crossing at 322.40 would mark a potential upside breakout of the aforementioned trading range. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 322.40. Second resistance is the August-15th reaction high crossing at 339.40. First support is the 75% retracement level of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 303.80. Second support is the June-2017 low crossing at 301.20.
December soybean oil was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 28.64 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December resumes the aforementioned rally, the 38% retracement level of the May-September-decline crossing at 30.53 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 30.01. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the May-September-decline crossing at 30.53. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 28.64. Second support is September's low crossing at 27.13.
LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock
December hogs closed down $0.63 at $55.95.
December hogs closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 54.52 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December extends the rally off August low, June's high crossing at 60.75 is the next upside target. First resistance is October's high crossing at 59.95. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 60.75. First support is the reaction low crossing at 54.52. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 53.69.
December cattle closed down $0.68 at 116.48.
December cattle closed lower on Wednesday as it extends the decline off October's high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off October's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 115.40 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 118.27 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is October's high crossing at 119.75. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 122.88. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 115.40. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 113.80.
October Feeder cattle closed down $1.05 at $155.90.
October Feeder cattle closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends today's decline, the 50-day moving average crossing at 153.44 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Friday's high crossing at 158.18 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is October's high crossing at 159.58. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 159.90. First support is today's low crossing at 155.80. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 153.44.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
December coffee closed lower on Wednesday as it consolidated some of the rally off September's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the aforementioned rally, the 62% retracement level of the May-September-decline crossing at 117.61 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 10.27 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.
December cocoa closed lower on Wednesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 21.41 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If September resumes the decline off August's high, the December-2017 low crossing at 18.71 is the next downside target.
March sugar closed lower on Wednesday as it consolidated some of the rally off September's low. The mid-range close set the stage for a steady opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the aforementioned rally, the June 26th high crossing at 13.27 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 11.61 would temper the near-term friendly outlook.
December cotton closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 78.10 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December resumes decline off July's high, the 62% retracement level of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 74.00 is the next downside target.
Thanks tallpine!