Excessive Rain threat

Michael in the Southeast the next 2 days. 

Current Day 1 Forecast

Day 1 Threat Area in Text Format  

Current Day 2 Forecast

Day 3 forecast below

Severe Storm Risk.

Michael in the Southeast/Midatlantic the next 2 days.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/

Current Day 1 Outlook
Current Day 2 Outlook
Current Day 3 Outlook
Current Day 4-8 Outlook

High Temperatures today and Thursday.

Last of the heat for awhile.  Cold is diving southeast. Temperatures on Thursday will be 30 deg. F cooler in many places compared to earlier this week!!!!

Highs for days 3-7:

The chilly  air will feature temperatures 30+ degrees colder than recent days along the Ohio River.............and stay chilly thru this particular period.

How do these days 3-7 temperatures compare to average at this time of year?

 The cold has taken over..........but warmth hangs on to the far southeast.

Low Temperature Departures:

Surface features for the same 3-7 day period:

Initial strong cold front dies in Florida. Chilly Canadian high pressure moves in behind it.  Reinforcing cold front this weekend, with a wave in the S.Cornbelt. Even stronger and chillier Canadian High behind it. Then another reinforcing cold front next Tuesday with mostly dry weather as the atmosphere will be dried out. 

Higher dew points have surged northward to Southeast Canada. Extremely dry air in the N.Plains is surging south in the Plains and poised to push southeast.

Current Surface features:

Frontal zone defining incredible temp contrast. Low pressure/storm along the front. The storm is kicking the front southeast.

Michael hitting FL Panhandle. 

https://weather.com/maps/currentusweather

Latest radar loop.

Midwest rains diminished. Now we watch Michael............and the well defined circulation/rain bands.

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/radar_tab.php

Satellite picture.

Look at Michael!

Rains the past 24 hours

Widespread heavy again along the front. ...Plains/Midwest....one last time.

You can go to this link to see rain totals from recent time periods:

https://water.weather.gov/precip/

Go to precipitation, then scroll down to pick a time frame. Hit states to get the borders to see locations better. Under products, you can hit "observed" or "Percent of normal"

Soil moisture anomaly:

Too wet in a large area. The wet pattern is going to change soon!!!

The 2nd map gets updated once a week.

Rains compared to average for the last 7, 14, 30 and 60 days. 

Usually not updated for previous day until late the next day.

Note how wet it's been over the past 60 days over eastern 2/3rds of the country!

https://www.atmos.illinois.edu/~snodgrss/Ag_Wx.html

The top map is the Canadian ensemble average, the maps below are the individual members that make up the average

End of week 2....................0Z ensembles from Wednesday.  More zonal, west to east flow,  less meridional/extreme. Mild to warm temperatures. Much drier pattern than recent days.

However, several other models disagree with this. Instead, they amplify the pattern into a ridge west/trough east one and of a dry, cool northwest flow pattern in the Midwest/East. It would still be decidedly dry though.
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Each member is like the parent, Canadian model operational model.......with a slight tweek/variation in parameters. Since we know the equations to represent the physics of the atmosphere in the models are not perfect, its useful to vary some of the equations that are uncertain(can make a difference) to see if it effects the outcome and how.

The average of all these variations(ensembles) often yields a better tool for forecasting. It's always more consistent. The individual operational model, like each individual ensemble member can vary greatly from run to run.........and represent an extreme end of the spectrum at times. The ensemble average of all the members, because it averages the extremes.............from opposite ends of the spectrum............changes much less from run to run.

360h GZ 500 forecast valid on Oct 25, 2018 00 UTC

Temperature Anomalies from GFS ensembles(fairly reliable product) going out 2 weeks. These maps show the Northern Hemisphere. The map of the US is front center. Look for the state borders in  white.

Today:  The cold blast has commenced.

 Very warm air to the southeast is being scoured out.

In 5+ days:

Cold well entrenched.........except for far southeast.

In 10+ days: Cool air surge has run its course?? Not so fast. Possibility of additional cold shots from ridge west/trough east pattern.

Day 15:  Upper level ridge NW Canada, upper level trough East.......at least on the GFS Ensembles. This would be chilly, dry northwest flow for the Midwest/East. Great uncertainty for this time frame.

The low skill, longer range CFS model for weeks 3-4.

Strong Upper level ridge in NW Canada (to Central Canada?) Builds eastward  and spreads warmth to the Upper Midwest. Same as yesterday.

Very Dry weather in the Midwest to accelerate harvest. Same as yesterday.

Heating degree days(from cold weather) are replacing cooling degree days(from hot weather) in October.

Check in tomorrow to read something different............."low skill" (-:

Precip below:

National Weather Service 6-10 day, 8-14 day outlooks.

Will be updated early this afternoon. Dry pattern!

Temps should be warm West and cool Midwest/East. 

Temperature Probability

Precipitation Probability

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Temperature Probability